Russian President Vladimir Putin might understand the limits of his power.
Bogged down in a war of choice in Ukraine, Putin has spent the past week watching with the rest of the world as tiny Israel, determined to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power — or gaining any nuclear weapons, has pummeled Iranian military and nuclear sites with virtual impunity.
And Putin pretty clearly wants no part of that action.
In January, just before President Donald Trump’s inauguration in Washington, Iran and Russia signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty,” as the Associated Press reported at the time.
The 20-year treaty covered areas “from trade and military cooperation to science, education and culture.”
The question then is: What exactly does “military cooperation” mean?
Unlike Russia’s relationship with North Korea, according to the AP, “the pact with Tehran doesn’t envisage mutual assistance in case of aggression. But it does oblige each country not to offer any military or any other aid to an aggressor attacking another party.”
And judging by Putin’s comments Thursday, as reported by The Times of Israel, Putin doesn’t want that to change.
“Asked if Russia was ready to provide Iran with modern weapons to defend itself against Israeli strikes, Putin said a strategic partnership treaty signed with Tehran in January did not envisage military cooperation,” The Times of Israel reported.
Will Putin get involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel?
Apparently, to Putin, “military cooperation” does not extend even to supplying advanced weaponry to a country currently getting the stuffing knocked out of it by a vastly smaller military force — even though Putin’s military has purchased Iranian drones for use in its war on Ukraine, as the New York Post has reported.
It also doesn’t mean Moscow courting even more problems with the Trump administration by standing any closer to the terrorist regime in Tehran than it already does.
And what all that does mean is that Putin might have washed his hands of Iran for the moment, in effect telling Tehran that it’s on its own when it comes to Israel.
Naturally, that doesn’t keep the Kremlin from trying to talk a good game to save face. For instance, according to Agence France-Presse, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman issued a clear statement Thursday, indicating her country would find American involvement in the Israel-Iran fighting unacceptable.
“We would like to particularly warn Washington against military intervention in the situation,” spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, according to the news agency.
Or what? Russia will send a strongly worded letter to the White House?
But it does impose practical constraints. Putin, a former KGB agent who has spent decades in power in Russia, has never shown signs of a romantic attachment to losing causes. And there’s no question that Tehran is now on the losing end of the fighting.
The weeklong Israeli attack on Iran — including the decapitation of its military leadership — has been an unmistakable example of how a superior military can defeat an inferior one, regardless of the odds on the surface.
Putin, currently preoccupied with his unjust, unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine (and occasionally being humiliated by it), clearly had no wish to insert himself or his military into the Iran-Israel war.
(He’s probably not all that keen on the idea of a nuclear-armed Iran anyway.)
Offered a chance to at least bluster about Russian military aid to the mullahs, Putin was able to muster only that Iran hadn’t asked, and the countries’ deal didn’t cover that anyway, according to The Times of Israel.
In effect, he closed the door on it — at least for now.
In a way that’s understandable.
Putin is a man who commands one of the world’s truly mighty militaries but has been vexed for three years by the stubborn resistance of a heroic Ukraine that refuses to be conquered. (Yes, Ukraine has has a history of corruption. And yes, it’s political leadership is far from perfect. Give credit where it’s due.)
Since last week, he has watched as a country roughly the size of New Jersey — and supplied mainly with American weapons systems — has had its way with a country over three times the size of California.
And he’s apparently taking away a lesson from it.
“Russia, when it comes to Iran, must weigh the possibility of a clash with Israel and the United States, so saving Iran is obviously not worth it,” Nikita Smagin, an author and journalist specializing in Russia-Iran relations, told The New York Times in an article published Tuesday.
“For Russia, this is just a fact.”
And for Putin, it’s a limit on his power.
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