The Labour MP didn’t hesitate. ‘Oh, there’s no doubt about it. If Keir fell under a bus tomorrow, the next leader would be Angela Rayner. It wouldn’t even be that close.’
Until recently, the idea of the single mother from Stockport taking up residency in No 10 seemed fantastical. Keir Starmer appeared to have an impregnable 174-seat majority. In the event of some unforeseen political mishap, Wes Streeting was widely perceived to be his heir apparent.
And although she held the sinecure of Deputy Prime Minister, Rayner was seen as too politically inexperienced – ‘rough around the edges’ was one Cabinet minister’s description – to be entrusted with the premiership.
But all that has now changed. Forget the hype surrounding the Trump trade deal. In the wake of the recent disastrous local election and by-election defeats, the patience of Labour MPs has snapped.
‘It’s amazing to watch,’ one Labour veteran observed. ‘I never thought it would unravel this quickly. But the backbenchers are in open revolt now. And what’s most incredible is how many of the new intake are openly saying they’ve had it with Keir.’
The poll results were bad enough. But what tipped a large number of MPs over the edge was the Prime Minister’s tone-deaf response to the losses. The statement he intended to go ‘further and faster’. No 10’s decision to endorse Lucy Powell’s claim the rape-gangs issue was being ‘weaponised’. The cack-handed announcement of the Indian trade deal, which saw National Insurance contributions for foreign workers being axed at precisely the same time they were being hiked for British employees.
As a result, Starmer is facing not one, but two, rebellions. More than 40 MPs – from all wings of the party – have signed a letter stating they cannot support the Government’s proposed benefit cuts. And an even larger group of MPs – including ministers – are demanding a change of course on cuts to the winter fuel allowance.
Although in both instances, their concerns are falling on deaf ears.
‘There’s been no outreach to the party after the results,’ one backbencher told me. ‘Nothing from No 10. Nothing from the whips. Total silence.’
There is currently no active move against Starmer. But a significant number of Labour MPs are now contemplating a scenario where he is replaced in advance of the next election. And they are weighing up their options.
Wes Streeting has lost his lustre. A number of his colleagues have become angered by what they see as his increasingly unsubtle agitation for the top job. His allies within the Cabinet and Downing Street have been blamed for briefing against other ministers, including Yvette Cooper and Bridget Phillipson.
Other MPs have also begun to form the view his personal brand – though slick – is too closely associated with the Blairite modernisers. ‘Wes is Tony’s candidate to be next leader,’ one MP told me. ‘But a rerun of Blairism isn’t what the country is looking for.’
Which is why the door is being opened to what would once have seemed an improbable succession. Rayner now enjoys significant support among those elements of the Labour movement that matter.
The Prime Minister’s tone-deaf response to the election losses tipped a large number of his MPs over the edge
She is massively popular with party members, securing a plus-63 per cent approval rating in a recent poll by Survation. In contrast, Keir Starmer’s rating stood at plus-14 per cent, and Streeting’s at plus-9 per cent.
She is respected by the trade unions, having fought to ensure her Employment Rights Bill remained one of the Government’s flagship pieces of first term legislation. And she’s well liked by her parliamentary colleagues, who she has been carefully – if subtly – courting.
‘Angela’s popular,’ one MP revealed to me. ‘She’s seen as approachable. Keir’s viewed as distant and detached. She’s always got time for people.’
Rayner also has the benefit of having been able to keep her hands relatively clean. ‘Look at the policies and issues that are upsetting people. Rachel [Reeves] is taking the hit for winter fuel. Liz [Kendall] owns disability cuts. Keir’s been tainted by sleaze and cronyism. Angela’s basically kept clear of it all,’ a senior backbencher said.
But what’s made Labour MPs start to seriously consider her as a potential replacement for Starmer is the rise of Nigel Farage. Even before the local elections breakthrough, ministers and backbenchers were becoming alarmed at the way Reform’s messages appeared to be resonating with working-class voters in Labour’s recently recaptured Red Wall seats.
‘We no longer speak to working people in a language they understand,’ one MP told me.
‘Keir tries, but people don’t relate to him. The ‘son of a toolmaker’ thing has become a joke.’
But some of their comrades believe they could relate to his deputy. ‘OK, Angela isn’t seen as being our most polished performer,’ one Rayner ally explained, ‘but they think she’s authentic. A lot of our voters recognise a bit of themselves in her. And that makes her different from politicians like Keir and Ed Miliband and Tony Blair.’
Wes Streeting’s allies within the Cabinet and Downing Street have been blamed for briefing against other ministers
Rayner has courted controversy, most recently with the scandal surrounding the sale of a council house she had acquired under the right-to-buy scheme. But since entering government she has kept out of trouble. And won plaudits for the decisive way she has moved to overturn the bureaucratic planning rules that have strangled house-building and major infrastructure projects.
It’s also true that some of her political opponents view her as a dangerously unknown quantity. When Starmer’s leadership was rocking in the wake of his Hartlepool by-election loss, one senior Tory strategist confided: ‘Boris [Johnson] knows how to beat Starmer – he’s too one-dimensional. The person who worries him is Rayner. She’s unpredictable. She could become an insurgent.’
An increasing number of her colleagues say that’s the sort of branding they need. The Prime Minister was given a boost by his successful wooing of Donald Trump. But some of his backbenchers are concerned he is failing to read the mood of a nation increasingly disillusioned by the sight of establishment grandees conducting business as usual.
‘Trade deals with Trump and India aren’t what the voters want from us,’ one minister said. ‘They’re angry. They want us to be shaking up the status quo. And I’m not sure Keir understands that.’
Some members of his party think they know a woman who does. The idea of Prime Minister Farage is no longer unthinkable. And because of that, neither is the prospect of Prime Minister Rayner.
