By blocking Andy Burnham from returning to Westminster, Sir Keir Starmer has just driven the final nail into the coffin of his premiership. Or, more specifically, he has ordered Labour’s National Executive Committee to drive in the final nails with him inside.
To be fair, the Prime Minister was faced with two devilishly difficult choices. Block Burnham and turn him into a martyr. Or allow him to run, and run the risk of the King of the North marching on Downing Street and hurling him unceremoniously from office.
But in classic Starmer fashion, he chose the worst option. And in doing so has now definitively sealed his political fate.
This is what will happen next. There will be a spontaneous and violent backlash from inside the Labour movement. Starmer and his allies spent the weekend briefing that Burnham was isolated and had little support within the Parliamentary Labour Party or among Labour’s base of councillors and activists.
It will soon become apparent that this briefing was wrong. Though the fact it was wrong has already been underlined by the actual decision to prevent Burnham standing. If he had as little support as No 10 was claiming, he would not have presented the existential risk they clearly believed he posed, and would not have needed to block the selection in the first place.
Sir Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham during a meeting in London in 2024. The Prime Minister has now blocked the Greater Manchester mayor from returning to Westminster
Join the debate
Is Starmer putting party politics above the voices of Northern voters?
The second reaction will come from the voters, especially in the North of England. Rightly or wrongly, they regard Andy Burnham as one of their own. And Starmer has sent them a clear message: ‘I will decide who represents you, not you. You Northern oiks can do one.’
Which, in turn, will cement a further toxic narrative. The Burnham selection. The local elections. The pattern is the same. Starmer has only one strategy left for shoring up his imploding political position: stop people from having the opportunity to vote for his opponents by any means necessary.
And it’s a strategy that will not sustain him for long. Because the Prime Minister cannot run from the voters for ever.
In a few weeks, the Gorton and Denton by-election will be held. And, having defenestrated Manchester’s favourite son, Starmer is likely to lose it. At which point the message will resonate far and wide across the Labour Party: ‘Our own leader sacrificed a vital parliamentary seat, and handed it on a plate to Nigel Farage and Reform, just to save his own skin.’
Then, a few weeks later, the local elections will be held. At least, in those areas where Starmer and his henchmen have reluctantly allowed them to proceed. And on that day, hundreds of Labour’s councillors will be next to be sacrificed on the altar of the Prime Minister’s vanity, ego and ambition.
That will be the moment the bell finally tolls. It may not be Andy Burnham. But Wes Streeting, or Angela Rayner, or a hitherto anonymous stalking horse will make their move. And when they do, no amount of fixing or gerrymandering or stitch-ups will save Starmer’s skin.
Today, the Prime Minister has made the biggest mistake of his premiership. It will be his last.
