It’s already become the Westminster ‘Whodunnit?’ of the year. Who was behind the leaking of the explosive ‘Angegate’ memo that has exposed the fracturing unity of the Cabinet, and blown a gaping hole in Rachel Reeves’s faltering economic strategy?
The malign missive – splashed all over the front pages of today’s newspapers – represents the most overt challenge yet to the Chancellor’s dwindling authority.
In it, the Deputy Prime Minister demands the ditching of Reeves’s pledge not to raise additional taxes, and lobbies for a smorgasbord of punitive hikes. £1billion from the axing of inheritance tax relief on shares. £1billion from closing a ‘loophole’ on stamp duty. £800m from reinstating the lifetime pensions allowance. £700m from an increase in the bank surcharge. £325million from axing the dividend allowance. £200m from increasing the tax on ‘enveloped dwellings’.
Allies of Rayner have expressed shock that her private correspondence was leaked in this way, and pointed the finger at Downing Street, with whom she has a long-running feud. The protestations were, however, somewhat reminiscent of Claude Raines’s Police chief in Casablanca, who expresses dismay at his discovery of gambling on the premises, only to pocket his winnings immediately after.
A friend of hers told me it may have been orchestrated by one of her cabinet rivals, though how they were supposed to have come into possession of the memo wasn’t entirely clear.
As with any murder mystery, the optimum way of getting to the bottom of the dastardly deed is to look for who had the means, motive and opportunity. Which would leave the finger of suspicion pointing at one main culprit. Angela Rayner herself.
‘She deliberately briefed it,’ a minister claimed ‘she’s making a move. It’s pretty obvious.’
So, perhaps not so much a ‘Whodunnit?’ as a ‘Whydshedoit?’. To which there could be a number of potential – and not necessarily mutually exclusive – answers.
One minister claimed Angela Rayner, pictured, ‘wants the job’ of Labour leader and is ‘beginning the process of lining herself up for the succession’
(L-R) Angela Rayner, Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves attend a concert to mark the 80th Anniversary of VE Day at Horse Guards Parade in London. One senior backbencher claims Rayner is ‘putting down a marker to Keir and Rachel that people won’t accept a strategy of trying to balance the books through more public spending cuts’.
The first is ambition. It’s widely perceived within the Labour party, and broader Labour movement, that Rayner is now the presumptive replacement were anything unfortunate to happen to the Prime Minister. And a number of members of the cabinet believe her memo represents an attempt to subtly – or not so subtly – nudge Sir Keir under the wheels of a passing Routemaster bus.
‘She wants the top job. She thinks she’s got the support in the party. So she’s beginning the process of lining herself up for the succession,’ one minister claimed. Another had a similar assessment, but told me they believed she was mounting a two-stage challenge to Starmer’s leadership. ‘It’s about getting rid of Rachel first. Then after she’s out of the way, having a clear run at getting rid of Keir,’ they told me.
One senior backbencher I spoke to had a slightly more charitable assessment. ‘Angela’s just reflecting the views of the Party. She knows the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party) meeting on Monday was terrible for Starmer. And she knows the anger there is on the doorsteps over winter-fuel and disability cuts.
‘So she’s putting down a marker to Keir and Rachel that people won’t accept a strategy of trying to balance the books through more public spending cuts.’
Another Cabinet minister thought the Deputy Prime Minister was primarily motivated by opportunism. ‘Everyone knows Rachel is going to have to U-turn now and raise taxes.
‘And some of the measures she’s going to have to introduce are pretty similar to the sort of stuff Angela was talking about in her memo. Angela just wants to be in a position to be able to say: “See, I was the one pushing for this.”’
On the surface this briefing, counter-briefing and backbiting is par for the course for the snake infested corridors of Westminster. But Rayner’s power-play is actually quite extraordinary.
It is just over 10 months since Keir Starmer was elected with a seemingly unassailable majority of 170. On paper his position as Prime Minister should be secure for at least a decade.
The Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister arriving for their speech at Pine Studios in December last year. The deputy evidently believes that Starmer’s already weak political position is set to deteriorate
Yet that majority is already under serious threat in the form of not one but two major rebellions. His Chancellor’s economic strategy is being openly challenged, not just by his backbenchers but members of his cabinet. And his own Deputy Prime Minister appears already to be actively and publicly jockeying to position herself for an impending succession.
This simply shouldn’t be happening. At precisely the moment a new administration would be expecting to settling down into the rhythms of government, it is starting to approach Liz Truss levels of dysfunctionality.
Because whatever people may think of her, Angela Rayner is not a political neophyte. She has chosen to break cover because she judges both Starmer and Reeves are vulnerable.
‘Angela always does this to Keir at moments of weakness,’ another minister claimed. ‘Remember when she went for him in the wake of Hartlepool?’
This was a reference to the aftermath of the disastrous 2021 by-election loss that saw Starmer contemplating his resignation. And reports of Rayner’s allies openly texting colleagues she was preparing a leadership challenge.
We are not at that stage. Yet.
Labour’s leadership rules are cumbersome. And Rayner knows there is not yet the appetite amongst her colleagues for a full-on contest.
But she has put down a clear marker. And she has done so because she self-evidently believes – correctly – that Starmer’s already weak political position is set to deteriorate.
Today’s surge in inflation shows the battle to stabilise the economy is being lost. Growth remains elusive, and that is before the aftershock of the Trump tariff-war strikes.
Which in turn leaves Reeves backed into a fiscal corner. She can either break her pledge to the CBI of November last year, in which she declared: ‘Public services now need to live within their means because I’m really clear, I’m not coming back with more borrowing or more taxes.’ Or she can cut further and faster, and face the renewed fury of her colleagues, and a vengeful electorate.
And that’s before Starmer confronts the darkening political storm-clouds surrounding his premiership. His aides are already bracing themselves for another series of by-election defeats. He is facing the prospect of difficult – and potentially destabilising – Cabinet reshuffle.
And there is growing disquiet over No.10’s seeming inability to confront the growing threat of Reform. As one Minister observed: ‘We’re a year into government and we still don’t have a story. We have no way of properly explaining to the voters what this government is actually for.’
Angela Rayner thinks she can write that story. The idea of the Deputy Prime Minister taking the step up to the highest office in the land may seem implausible to those who remain unimpressed by her blunt style and old-Labour radicalism.
But if Sir Keir were to fall – or get pushed – under that Routemaster, his replacement would not be selected by the British people, but by the MPs, shop-stewards and activists of the Labour movement. And the sight of the working-class single mother from Stockport taking up the cudgels to battle for higher taxes is one that warms their stout socialist hearts.
Angela Rayner has decided to directly challenge the authority of the Prime Minister and his Chancellor. The Labour civil war is officially underway. And she could well be our next Prime Minister.
