The demise of two-party politics in this country has been prophesied many times. To date, those prophecies have proved to be false.
In 1981 and ’82, the Social Democratic Party achieved seismic by-election victories. Yet in the 1983 general election, it barely registered.
More recently, in the 2019 European elections Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party won hands down, returning more MEPs than Labour and Conservative combined.
Seven months later it failed to win a single Westminster seat, as Boris Johnson led the Tories to a landslide.
So, will this time be different? The omens for Mr Farage are certainly looking good after yesterday.
In a stellar election performance, Reform UK landed a flurry of brutal blows on both main parties, leaving them sprawled on the canvas gasping for breath.
His remarkable triumph was nothing less than a cry of rage from an electorate which feels abandoned and ignored by the political establishment.
On migration, Net Zero, the cost of living, free speech, respecting our heritage, defending the realm and protecting our streets they feel they have been failed, and failed, and failed again.
Whether Mr Farage has the solution to any or all these burning issues remains to be seen.
The omens for Reform Leader Nigel Farage are certainly looking good after yesterday
Sir Keir’s right that people are ready for change, but the first thing they want to change is the PM and his clueless government
How should Mrs Badenoch respond? Is her party holed below the waterline, or can it recover?
But for many voters it’s enough that he recognises the problems and has an apparently single-minded determination to solve them. Yesterday they turned out for him in overwhelming force.
In the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, Reform’s Sarah Pochin overturned a Labour majority of nearly 15,000 – and that was just the start of Sir Keir Starmer’s day of misery.
His party went on to lose some 80 per cent of sitting councillors in those wards being contested. It was an utter repudiation of his first ten months in power.
Sir Keir’s right that people are ready for change, but the first thing they want to change is the PM and his clueless government.
Labour’s ultimate humiliation came in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, where the Labour mayor was ousted by a Conservative. But for Kemi Badenoch it was the only glimmer of light in an otherwise bleak day.
Her party lost every council they had previously controlled, some to huge Reform majorities. The average swing to the Faragistas was more than 30 per cent.
There are mitigating factors for the Conservatives. These seats were last fought four years ago, when they were on a high after the vaccine roll-out.
Equally, the majority of councils at stake were Tory, which meant they had most to lose. Nevertheless, this was a rout. So how should Mrs Badenoch respond? Is her party holed below the waterline, or can it recover?
Whether Mr Farage has the solution to any or all these burning issues remains to be seen
After the shambles of recent years, Mrs Badenoch must convince the voters she feels their anger and is on their side
The first imperative is not to panic. We are four years from a general election and though Reform is now a formidable threat, it is completely untested in running any form of government.
Faced with the difficulties of office, it may well struggle. These elections have shown once again that Britain is fundamentally a conservative nation with a small c, so if Reform’s sheen does tarnish, the Tories will be the most likely beneficiaries.
But they must understand that Reform’s success is based on listening to the concerns of ordinary people, especially over migration and Net Zero.
After the shambles of recent years, Mrs Badenoch must convince the voters she feels their anger and is on their side. If she fails, Mr Farage’s boast that he will consign the Conservatives to history may yet come true.
