California‘s Bay Area is now almost certain to suffer a devastating earthquake within the next few decades, with some experts warning it could come as soon as 2032.
Sarah Minson from the US Geological Survey (USGS) has warned that the chances of the long-feared ‘Big One’ striking San Francisco by 2055 have risen to a staggering 72 percent.
In fact, Minson said that ‘one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger’ quakes are more than likely to strike Northern California within 30 years.
Scientists have warned that the San Andreas Fault, an 800-mile-long fault which runs right through the Bay Area, is overdue for ‘The Big One’ – a magnitude 7.8 earthquake or higher.
While Minson believes there may be some time left for Californians, USGS disagrees and warns that the first major earthquake will come in just seven years.
‘The threat of earthquakes extends across the entire San Francisco Bay region, and a major quake is likely before 2032,’ the agency wrote in a report.
The last time a quake stronger than 6.7 in magnitude struck the Bay Area was the Loma Prieta earthquake that killed 63 people and injured nearly 4,000 in 1989.
The new fears that ‘The Big One’ is on the way come as a fresh earthquake swarm rattled California’s coast Monday morning, right near the northern tip of the San Andreas Fault.
USGS revealed early Monday morning that 7 earthquakes struck the Pacific just off the coast of Northern California, near the northern tip of the San Andreas Fault
Sarah Minson from the US Geological Survey has warned that the chances of the long-feared ‘Big One’ striking San Francisco by 2055 have risen to a staggering 72 percent
USGS revealed early Monday morning that seven earthquakes struck the Pacific just off the coast of Northern California between 1:54am and 7:01am ET.
Five of those quakes took place just minutes apart between 4:17am and 4:38am, with one of them registering at magnitude 4.6.
The swarm took place roughly 50 miles southwest of Eureka, which sits near the northern boundary of the infamous fault line. No injuries or damage has been reported.
Based on historical trends, it’s estimated the San Andreas causes a major quake every 150 years or so. The last one was 167 years ago.
The last ‘Big One’ in California was a magnitude 7.9 quake that decimated San Francisco in 1906, killing 3,000 people and leveling 80 percent of the city’s buildings.
Minson explained that such a massive earthquake is the rarest of the rare, making the Loma Prieta earthquake look common in comparison.
‘For every magnitude 8, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, there are 10 Loma Prieta-sized earthquakes, and 100 Napa-sized earthquakes, and 1,000 magnitude 5 earthquakes,’ the geophysicist told The Mercury News.
Experts predict the next ‘Big One’ would cause roughly 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries and $200 billion in damages, according to the Great California Shakeout.
Despite the growing likelihood that at least one major earthquake is just years away, Minson warned that Californians need to focus more on the threat coming from smaller quakes striking the state each year.
‘Even though each of those smaller earthquakes impacts a smaller area and they are less likely to cause damage, they happen so much more frequently that overall the risk from them is higher,’ Minson said.
The USGS scientist compared major earthquakes to shark attacks, something so rare but so terrifying that many people overlook the more immediate danger.
‘Sharks kill on average about five people a year and cows kill on average about 22 people a year,’ she continued.
The 800-mile-long San Andreas fault line that runs along the West Coast is overdue for a massive earthquake that scientists warn could sink parts of the US (STOCK IMAGE)
Survivors view the wreckage of the Grand and Palace Hotel after the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco, which leveled 80 percent of the city’s buildings
To prepare for the inevitable ‘Big One,’ Minson said it’s important to have a backup plan of how to get in contact with family in case normal communication and transportation goes down during the earthquake.
‘You want water, food, those sorts of things. Think of your pets. You can go to ready.gov for more information,’ she added.
Although the San Andreas is drawing most of the attention when it comes to predicting California’s next big earthquake, Minson warned that a lesser known fault line could be the real trigger for disaster.
‘The Hayward Fault seems to have the highest rate of earthquakes,’ the USGS expert explained.
The Hayward Fault runs along the foot of the East Bay hills. The last major earthquake hit on October 21, 1868, measuring a 6.8 magnitude.
Historical records show that five people were killed and 30 were injured. Scientists have been monitoring the fault, finding it produces major quakes ever 140 years.
Researchers at the University of California, Berkley said: ‘Since it has been more than 144 years since the last major earthquake, the clock is ticking.’
‘It is very likely that the Hayward fault will rupture and produce a significant earthquake within the next 30 years.’
