With much to lose, Arab states have emerged as the loudest voices calling for diplomacy to end the Israel-Iran conflict and are spearheading eleventh-hour contacts to prevent a wider war.
Gulf Arab states and Jordan are currently trying to deescalate the conflict, with Oman and Qatar set to host last-ditch talks this week between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and the Iranian foreign minister. The twin goals: to reach a ceasefire and a nuclear deal.
A leading concern is that if the United States were to join Israel’s offensive, these Arab countries – already in the line of fire between Iran and Israel – host U.S. military bases that could become targets.
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Despite their competition for regional influence, Arab states are not rooting for the Iranian regime’s fall. Led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, they are urging President Trump to seek a ceasefire, and a return to business-friendly regional stability.
Also at stake: the recent ascendance of a pro-Arab Middle East alignment linked by cooperation, economic prosperity, and moderation, which may unravel should Iran activate its proxy militias.
As the Arab states seek to avoid being dragged into a conflict they have long sought to avoid, the region’s future may now rest on their ability to sway President Donald Trump that dialogue is the way forward.
For Gulf Arab states, located directly across the Persian Gulf from Iran, the war “is our worst nightmare come into fruition,” says Bader al-Saif, assistant professor at Kuwait University and fellow at London-based Chatham House. “Symbolically and geographically, we are stuck between the two adversaries. The continuation of this can only mean regional spillover.”
Diplomatic push
Despite two decades of competition with Iran over influence in the region, the Arab states are not enjoying a case of schadenfreude nor are they quietly rooting for the Iranian regime’s fall, insiders and observers say. Their main concern is regional destabilization.
Led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, they are mobilizing their newly minted Axis of Cooperation to present a united front, urging the Trump administration not to get involved in Israel’s offensive and to push for an immediate ceasefire, insiders say.
“The message from Arab states to Washington is simple and direct: We all want a peaceful, quiet, and moderate Middle East driven by business and economic interests,” says a Gulf diplomat with knowledge of the talks but who is not authorized to speak to the press. “This will all be lost if Israel and Iran continue the war. This conflict will undo all our painstaking progress towards stability, progress, and peace.”
On Saturday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stressed to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian “the kingdom’s condemnation and denunciation of [Israeli] attacks, which undermine the sovereignty and security of the Islamic Republic of Iran” and which “disrupted dialogue aimed at resolving the crisis.”
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman are acting as intermediaries for Tehran and Washington, passing messages from Tehran to Washington urging a ceasefire.
Much is riding on the proposed meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials, with President Trump musing Tuesday that he may send both Mr. Witkoff and Vice President JD Vance to the talks.
Saudi Arabia reportedly is using personal ties with President Trump and a shared business-first philosophy to push the White House to deescalate.
“Not only the good relationship, but the natural chemistry that both Trump and MBS have, is and can be leveraged,” says Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi researcher and fellow at the Gulf International Forum. “All agree,” he stresses, that the war “is going to hinder these investments that will boost the American economy.”
So far, the Arab diplomacy has only brought pledges by the U.S. and Israel not to directly drag Arab states into the war.
The Israeli air force has refrained from using Gulf Arab and Jordanian airspace to reach Iran, and some say there is a “quiet understanding” the U.S. will not appear to be using its Middle East bases to support the Israeli offensive.
The White House has told Arab states this week it will not get involved in the offensive unless Americans come under attack, Axios reports.
U.S. bases and other targets
One of the biggest factors threatening to drag in the Gulf countries is the presence of U.S. military bases, such as those in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan, which may become targets for Iran or its proxies in Yemen and Iraq.
“If the U.S. gets involved, U.S. targets in the Gulf are open to Iranian retaliation,” Mr. Saif notes.
Iran made its intentions clear last week. Two days before the war broke out early Friday, Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warned: “If a conflict is imposed on us … all U.S. bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries.”
Concerns are rising in the Gulf that, should Israel step up its targeting of Iranian gas facilities, Tehran and its proxies may target Gulf oil and gas facilities in retaliation.
Fresh in their minds is the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais attack in which Iran-backed Houthi drones took 50% of Saudi Arabia’s oil production off-line.
The war has also highlighted the “curse of geography”: Multiple Arab states in the Levant lie directly under the flightpath of Iranian missiles and drones.
In Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria, salvos of dozens of ballistic missiles headed to Israel fly overhead every several hours.
Jordan has publicly pledged to knock down any missiles or drones flying over its airspace to protect its “sovereignty.” On a nightly basis, Jordan’s air force lights up the sky as it knocks down Iranian missiles.
“Jordan has not and will not allow any violation of its airspace,” government spokesman Mohammed al-Momani said in a statement, emphasizing that “the Kingdom will not be a battleground for any conflict.”
Despite its military’s defensive success, Jordanian diplomacy with Iran and Israel has borne little fruit, even as the conflict plunges the kingdom into a state of wartime emergency.
“You cannot prevent Iranians from using your airspace and cannot ask Israel not to attack Iran. This is a curse of geography,” notes Amer Sabaileh, a Jordanian geopolitical analyst. “You are in the middle of a war, but you are not part of it. It is a difficult position.”
Economic cost
Even should Arab states avoid direct Iranian missiles, the conflict is set to drag down their economies.
The constant Iranian salvos have triggered 10 foreign airlines to cancel flights in and out of Jordan, severely undercutting its highly valued tourism industry.
Another looming economic blow to the region is a threat by some Iranian officials to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil exports flow, particularly to China and India.
Although wartime energy shocks may provide a short-term boon, with rising oil prices, it would not offset the huge cost to Gulf states’ transformations to non-oil economies, which rely on foreign investment and market stability.
“Gulf states all agree that we don’t need war,” says Mr. Saif, the Kuwaiti analyst and university professor. “It will scare away investors and will prevent us from our ambitious visions to grow both at home and beyond our borders.”
