Gaza’s fragile ceasefire continues to hold back a wider war but is failing to move the opposing sides forward toward peace.
The complex, multi-phase deal mediated by the Trump administration has placed Hamas in a difficult middle position. The Palestinian political-militant movement is facing mounting pressure to hand over deceased Israeli hostages and disarm, even as it is held responsible for maintaining the ceasefire while its control over the Strip is thin.
It was a dynamic highlighted on Tuesday when Palestinian militants attacked Israeli soldiers near Rafah, killing an Israeli reservist and triggering devastating Israeli airstrikes that killed more than 100 Palestinians, including 46 children, across the coastal enclave.
Why We Wrote This
The ceasefire in Gaza is holding – barely. Violations highlight challenges facing Hamas until a new Palestinian administration is formed and a security force is deployed. It’s a dynamic that leaves Palestinians’ hopes for a reconstruction phase on hold.
Hamas denied responsibility for the attack. Israel, which said it struck dozens of militant targets, and reportedly is digging in for a prolonged deployment along its withdrawal line, later declared the ceasefire restored.
Though the ceasefire was holding – barely – Wednesday, the flareup pointed to the immense challenges facing Hamas to maintain control until a new Palestinian administration is formed and an international security force is established and deployed.
The ongoing presence of the Israeli military patrolling the territory increases the chances of such clashes, observers say.
“As long as they remain in these areas, clashes are inevitable, because any fighter from any faction who remains within these dangerous zones could be attacked by the occupation forces … leading to a military confrontation,” says Wesam Afifa, a writer and political analyst from Gaza.
It’s a dynamic that leaves Gaza residents unable to move on to reconstruction and a more stable political phase.
Violations
Since being secured on Oct. 9, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement has been marked by dozens of violations.
Palestinian officials say Israel has committed more than 80 ceasefire violations, from deadly airstrikes to failing to allow in sufficient aid to restrictions on the Rafah border. Israeli airstrikes since the ceasefire have killed 157 Palestinians and wounded more than 400, according to Gaza health authorities.
Israel says Palestinian militants have attacked its forces multiple times. It also accuses Hamas of failing or refusing to hand over the remains of killed Israeli hostages, which international experts say remains a logistical challenge. It accused Hamas this week of staging the recovery of remains, which the Red Cross has condemned.
“As things stand, Hamas’ military and security control over the unoccupied parts of Gaza remains the main obstacle to implementing the second phase” of the Trump deal, says Younis al-Zarei, a Gaza political analyst.
“Israel uses this as a justification to delay any steps toward easing restrictions or progressing with the plan.”
Multiple armed groups
The movement to Phase 2 of the plan is held up by an incompatible security dynamic: Hamas disarming at a time it does not have full control of the Strip, the lack of a new police force to replace it, and the presence of other armed gangs and militias.
“From a security perspective, the issue of disarming Hamas represents the biggest obstacle,” says Mustafa Ibrahim, a human rights activist and analyst of Israeli affairs based in Gaza.
“The movement has agreed in principle to the plan, with the reservation that the weapons issue was an ‘internal Palestinian issue’ to be discussed later within a comprehensive national framework, linked to a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.”
But while an intra-Palestinian dialogue began last week in Cairo, it has not reached an agreement over a new Palestinian administration or the question of future armed resistance to Israel. The Israeli military maintains a presence in Gaza, refusing to withdraw to the perimeters until Hamas disarms – an arrangement laid out in the plan.
Clans, gangs, and militias backed by Israel remain armed and have been attempting to exert influence in various pockets and zones nominally under Israeli military control.
One of Hamas’ concerns, Palestinian observers close to the Palestinian talks tell the Monitor, is that should they hand over personal firearms such as assault rifles and handguns, they will be overrun by gangs and targeted themselves in revenge killings.
Another a potential fallout of a complete Hamas disarmament without a Palestinian security force is a complete breakdown of law and order in Gaza.
Not only would Gaza’s civilians suffer, but, under this scenario, armed splinter groups outside of Hamas’ control could target Israeli forces stationed nearby – similar to Tuesday’s attacks but on a larger scale – triggering Israeli strikes and a collapse of the ceasefire itself.
“Hamas is being asked to both disarm and maintain the peace in Gaza at the same time,” says the source, close to the Palestinian talks, who was not authorized by his faction to speak to the press. “This is an impossible task. Hamas knows that there will be chaos the day they hand over weapons unless a full Palestinian security force steps in, but Israel is not allowing it. We are at a standstill.”
Hamas refuses to hand over its arms to the Israeli military or an international force.
Who will govern?
The struggle over disarmament has laid bare another challenge. Even if Hamas is ready to hand over governance to a new Palestinian administration, which it has repeatedly said it is willing to do, internal disagreements mean it does not yet have a Palestinian entity to hand over to.
“The internal Palestinian division over the nature of the next administration [in Gaza] is between those who see the need for a transitional government of technocrats and those who fear it will merely be a cover for Israeli-American designs,” says Mr. Ibrahim, the human rights activist.
Khalil al-Hayya, Hamas’ top negotiator, told Al Jazeera this week that the movement’s weapons were tied to Israel’s “occupation and aggression,” stressing “if the occupation ends, these weapons will be handed over to the state,” in reference to a united Palestinian government that has yet to be formed.
Hamas officials did not reply to Monitor requests for comment.
Under the Trump plan, as well as vague commitments made by international partners in Cairo earlier this month, a U.S.-backed, Israel-approved international peacekeeping force would police the Strip. Palestinian analysts describe this idea as unrealistic.
“No foreign mission will be able to maintain security in Gaza without a genuine Palestinian partner on the ground,” says Mr. Zarei. “Given Hamas’ deep social roots and control over daily life, the only viable counterweight capable of stabilizing Gaza is the Palestinian Authority – not a multinational force unfamiliar with the local terrain and political dynamics.”
Reconstruction on hold
This has left both Hamas and Israel, unable or unwilling to move from the first phase of the Trump plan and into the more hopeful second phase, which would include the beginning of reconstruction in the devastated territory.
Gaza’s 2.2 million residents, living under Israeli airstrikes and unable to rebuild their homes, remain at the mercy of the high-end “political stakes over who will govern Gaza, the fate of the resistance’s weapons, and humanitarian stakes over the international community’s ability to impose genuine commitments that will halt the destruction and begin reconstruction,” says Mr. Ibrahim.
“To date, [the deal’s] implementation remains contingent on American pressure and the extent of Israel’s and Palestinian factions’ commitment to the terms of the agreement.”
Palestinian analysts warn that, without a diplomatic breakthrough on Palestinian governance and security forces, Gaza residents could be left in a perpetual limbo, without peace and a chance for healing and reconstruction.
“There could be a complete breakdown in the process, with no real movement toward any additional phase,” warns Mr. Afifa, the writer and analyst. “This is a scenario that will only deepen the humanitarian crisis and political deadlock.”
