Monday, March 16, 2026

Are Iranian Security Forces Turning on Each Other? – HotAir

March 16, 2026
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Are Iranian Security Forces Turning on Each Other? – HotAir
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Watching the coverage of Operation Epic Fury has given me epic fury. 

Two weeks into a military operation that was advertised as taking 4-12 weeks, the media, the transnational establishment, and the Democratic Party is trying to convince everybody that the Iranian regime is winning, that its political position is impregnable, that its military capabilities aren’t degraded a bit, and that our military planners, who have been war gaming this operation or some variant for decades, were caught off guard. 





The coverage has all the hallmarks of Russian disinformation, to use an oft-repeated claim. 

Over the past few days, the war entered a new phase, with Israel specifically targeting Basij militia forces with drone strikes and Iranian dissidents now assassinating Iran’s internal security forces. Nobody wanted or expected an uprising in the opening phases of the war, and everybody is glad that the Iranians did not become cannon fodder for regime forces to murder. 

Soon enough, we will see if these new efforts bear fruit, as I suspect they will. 

There are a lot of plausible, if unproven, reports of desertion in the ranks, and there is plenty of verifiable evidence that internal security forces are running scared. 

The body lies mutilated in the street. The wounds are savage but calculated. This is more than sadism. It is a message.

At first glance, it’s just one more ­Iranian who has lost their life amid the state’s promiscuous violence. A tragedy – as death always is – but in the Islamic Republic, sadly a part of daily life.

But this is different: it’s not an Iranian protester lying in the dirt for all to see but an officer of the regime’s first and last line of defence: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28 I have been in ­contact with a source who is across western intelligence inside the country.

And what they have revealed to me is something extraordinary: that amid the chaos and fury of the war in Iran, the state’s most brutal security forces are not only penetrated by enemy services and in disarray – they are turning on each other. ‘Over the past four days, reports have painted a picture of an ­Iranian security apparatus under severe and accelerating internal strain,’ says my source.

‘More than 60 incidents have been ­documented across virtually every branch of the regime’s ­military and security apparatus, spanning multiple regions simultaneously.

‘That body turned up in the street just the other day,’ they add. ‘And it’s not an isolated incident by any means. There are many reports of IRGC soldiers being executed for desertion,’ he continues. ‘It’s happening constantly. IRGC leaders are also regularly executing subordinates for refusing to carry out orders.’ This is ‘not isolated turbulence but a nationwide condition,’ they add.





True? I don’t know. Plausible? Well, the regime just killed 40,000 of its own citizens in an uprising that nearly toppled the regime, so obviously yes. 

Reports of desertions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iranian police are mounting. A source close to the IRGC told senior Iran analyst Dror Balazada @DBalazada that the trend is expanding beyond isolated cases.

According to the source, defections are now being recorded in larger numbers in Isfahan and Tabriz, and not only among lower ranks.

Why the surge in exits?

Field units report a breakdown in communication with command centers in Tehran.

Many personnel feel they are being used as human shields while senior commanders remain sheltered underground.

Severe economic hardship: a cash shortage in Iran is leaving security members struggling to pay bills or even buy food.

The source warns that the growing unrest inside the security apparatus could signal deeper cracks within the Iranian regime. 🔥

Via: @c14israel

Are some of these reports propaganda intended to create a bandwagon effect? It’s possible, although almost no information is getting into Iran from outside, given the government-imposed internet blackout. 





One of the reasons why Pravda and the Democrats have had some success in their misinformation campaign is that they are treating this operation as if it were planned as a “one and done,” rather than a carefully planned-out and multi-staged campaign. First, you complete step one; then step two; then step three; and so on. You don’t go from the first bomb to an uprising in one day. 

You have to degrade the effectiveness of the internal security forces, just as you have to degrade any other military capacity, before you move to the next stage of the campaign. 

At the same time, bodies of regime officials showing signs of torture have been turning up dumped in streets and other public places. The victims come from across Iran’s security apparatus – including intelligence officers, naval personnel and members of the regular army. Opposition groups are believed to be responsible for some of the killings.

The message is clear: the regime is under attack from all sides.

Even Iranian missile teams are penetrated, with their equipment reportedly ‘breaking down’ mysteriously on occasions. Authorities suspect sabotage and the incidents are followed by investigations, arrest – and yet more executions. The security forces are so widely compromised that they are being turned inside out. Paranoia is at an all-time high.





As I have argued any number of times, we can’t judge the effectiveness of the strategy until we see the results, but it’s obvious that Trump and Netanyahu have a strategy, and that the path to success is clear. 

Critics are pointing to the defiant statements of the few Iranian regime officials still upright to prove Iran will win this war, as if making defiant statements is proof that the regime is capable of carrying out its will.

The media and the internationalists are deeply invested in Trump losing this war, and even willing to sacrifice Americans to domestic terrorist attacks to get there. 

Who would have believed that any American politician would keep voting to close the Department of Homeland Security in the middle of a war? Yet it is now the official position of the Democratic Party. 

I can’t say that everything will turn out well, but what I can say is that nobody in the media even wants to cover the possibility that Iranian security forces are defecting, despite the obvious fact that they have every reason to fear for their lives. 





Every American should be rooting for Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion to succeed, even if they think that it was a mistake to launch them. Victory would mean the liberation of Iranians, stabilization in the Middle East, and revenge against a regime that has been conducting a war against us for decades. 

Instead, it seems that many in our elite are rooting for the bad guys. 

So very on-brand. 


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