Andy Burnham would have romped home in the Gorton & Denton by-election if Keir Starmer had not blocked him, according to a poll.
The Greater Manchester mayor could have secured nearly half the vote in the constituency, easily seeing off the challenge from both the Greens and Reform.
The findings raise fresh questions about the PM’s decision to stop Mr Burnham being the candidate last month, amid fears he would pose a leadership threat in the Commons.
Labour‘s ruling National Executive Committee refused permission, with only deputy leader Lucy Powell backing his case.
Sir Keir and his allies argued that the party would risk losing the mayoralty if Mr Burnham vacated his current job.
The move sparked a public rebuke from Mr Burnham who said he was only interested in countering the ‘divisive politics of Reform’.
He did play a prominent role campaigning for the selected candidate, Angeliki Stogia.
Andy Burnham could have secured nearly half the vote in the constituency, easily seeing off the challenge from both the Greens and Reform
Sir Keir and his allies argued that the party would risk losing the mayoralty if Mr Burnham vacated his current job (pictured with Angeliki Stogia, who stood as the by-election candidate)
The findings raise fresh questions about the PM’s decision to stop Mr Burnham being the candidate earlier this month, amid fears he would pose a leadership threat in the Commons
The Greens’ Hannah Spencer pulled off a stunning victory on the contest on February 26, racking up a 4,000 majority in what is traditionally a safe Labour seat.
Reform’s Matt Goodwin rubbed salt in the wound by pushing Sir Keir’s party into third place.
However, according to the Survation polling for Datapraxis, Mr Burnham would have been supported by 47 per cent of those ‘certain’ to vote.
That would have been nearly double the 25 per cent backing for Ms Spencer, while Mr Goodwin could have received 21 per cent.
Labour MPs were furious about the outcome in Gorton, which was seen as wrecking the party’s strategy of painting the next election as a binary choice with Reform.
A jubilant Zack Polanski has insisted the Greens are now on track to scoop dozens of seats at the general election.
However, in a crumb of solace for Sir Keir, the New Statesman’s Britain Predicts model suggests the Greater Manchester Mayor contest would have been on a knife-edge.
It suggests that Reform could have narrowly seized the prized post, with 28 per cent support to Labour’s 27 per cent.
The Greens’ Hannah Spencer pulled off a stunning victory on the contest on March 2, racking up a 4,000 majority in what is traditionally a safe Labour seat
In a crumb of solace for Sir Keir, the New Statesman’s Britain Predicts model suggests the Greater Manchester Mayor contest would have been on a knife-edge
