The clerical-military dictatorship which has ruled Iran for almost 50 years has run out of options. President Trump’s daring raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities further undermines a regime which is already reeling from multiple humiliations at home and abroad.
For the medieval mullahs and their brutal generals, there is no good way forward, no credible response that doesn’t involve more humiliation amounting to capitulation.
The end of days beckons for them. The US raid is just one more nail in the coffin. A regime which only recently thought it was on track to dominate the Middle East with its toxic brew of Islamism and anti-Semitism is now reeling in retreat on every front.
The terrorist proxies which it fostered and financed at huge expense and through which it spread fear and terror, are impotent. Hamas struggles to survive, in no state to threaten anyone bar defenceless Palestinians who dare to challenge its fading power.
Hezbollah, a far more formidable operation dominating southern Lebanon and once seen as the tip of the spear should Israel ever attack Iran, has been decapitated. It speaks volumes that Hezbollah has not lifted a finger to help its paymasters even as Israel pummels Iran from the skies.
Iran’s great ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, has been deposed and languishes in exile in Moscow (where some of the Iranian regime may soon join him). Iran used Syria as a base from which its Quds Force, the foreign legion arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, could stir up all manner of mayhem across the region.
Syria was also the conduit through which it channelled arms and money to its proxies, but it is now in the hands of forces hostile to the Iranian regime.
President Donald Trump addresses the nation after the US military carried out a ‘daring raid’ on three Iranian nuclear sites
As if all that was not bad enough, there came the greatest humiliation of all: Iran lost control of its skies to the Israeli air force. As a result, Israel is able to strike with impunity.
The Iranian air force has been neutralised, many of the country’s military commanders have been killed – as have key nuclear scientists – and its missile stocks and launchers are being ruthlessly degraded by Israeli air power.
Israel’s dominance of Iranian airspace paved the way for the US attack on the nuclear facilities. Its B-2 stealth bombers were able to drop their bunker-buster bombs on sites buried deep underground without being detected. They arrived, unleashed their ordnance and departed without Iran firing a single missile at them or scrambling even one fighter jet to confront them.
Trump sees himself as a master of the art of the deal. But he’s turned out to be more a master of deception.
He lulled Iran into thinking he was still up for negotiating a deal while secretly green-lighting Israel’s attacks on Iran, which started on Friday the 13th (unlucky for some).
He said he’d take up to two weeks to decide if he’d deploy US bunker-busters against Iran – then did so after two days.
For the medieval mullahs and their brutal generals, there is no good way forward
Trump’s administration let it be known that B-2 bombers were on their way across the Pacific – while the real strike force was heading for Iran over the Atlantic.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Iran’s nuclear bombmaking facilities had been ‘obliterated’. Its top military man, General Dan ‘Razin’ Caine, was more cautious, saying initial estimates were that all three nuclear sites attacked – Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow – suffered ‘sustained severe damage’ but it would take time to establish a more complete picture.
Trump wants Iran to restart talks to give up its nuclear capabilities. That’s his preferred option. But he’s equally clear that if Tehran refuses or, worse, retaliates for yesterday’s strike, then he will authorise further assaults.
He’s certainly assembled the firepower in the region to deliver his threat – including two massive aircraft carrier groups.
The real significance of what happened at the weekend is that, should the Iranian regime decide to escalate the conflict or continue to pursue its nuclear ambitions, it will face not just Israel, but the combined military might of Israel and the United States.
Trump’s administration let it be known that B-2 bombers were on their way across the Pacific – while the real strike force was heading for Iran over the Atlantic
That is a truly historic development – and should give Iran cause to pause. But nobody really knows who is running the show in Tehran now.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is 86, in very poor health, bereft of several of his closest advisers (killed by Israel), holed up in a bunker for his own safety and without an agreed heir apparent.
His lifelong strategy – to arm Iran with nuclear weapons and establish it as the dominant power in the Middle East – lies in tatters. Iran is on its knees.
The idea he or those around him are still capable of a coherent or rational response may be fanciful.
Hotheads may opt for scorched earth policy
In the aftermath of yesterday’s attack, Iran’s parliament voted to authorise the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which most Gulf oil and gas passes in massive tankers. But that decision can only be taken by Khamenei in cahoots with his national security council.
It would certainly cause the global economy some short-term pain as energy prices spiked. But it would also be a body blow to the regime, which needs fossil-fuel revenues to sustain the military and pay the Revolutionary Guards and assorted thugs that are so vital to it keeping its grip on power.
The risk is that hotheads gain the upper hand – as they have in the past – and go for a scorched earth policy, realising the game is up but determined to take whoever they can down with them.
So, close the Strait of Hormuz, fire missiles at the oil and gas fields of the Gulf states and wreak revenge on US bases in the region.
But any of that would bring the full might of American and Israeli air power down on the regime’s head, leaving it not just without a nuclear capability but without a functioning economy – a likely precursor to the overthrow of a dictatorship that has long passed its sell-by date for most Iranians.
Israel and the US deny regime change is the goal.
But Washington and Jerusalem both know that the best guarantee of a non-nuclear Iran is a more reasonable, post-Islamist government in Tehran. It is, of course, for Iranians to determine their government.
Nobody is talking about boots on the ground. Aerial bombing is a somewhat blunt and inexact way of creating conditions for a better government.
But America and Israel are agreed that now is the time to keep up the pressure on a regime responsible for so much misery – an alliance buoyed by the better prospects its demise would bring for Israel, America, the Sunni Arabs in the Gulf and, above all, the Iranian people.
It’s certainly a more worthy goal than the usual hand-wringing, vacuous calls for ‘de-escalation’ and ‘stability’ from European leaders, including our own Keir Starmer, who clearly disapproved of the US strike yet welcomed the setback to Iran’s nuclear ambitions – a classic case, if ever there was one, of willing the ends but not the means.
No matter. Britain and Europe don’t even have walk-on parts in the events unfolding in the Middle East. They are mere spectators who think they still count – but thankfully don’t.
America and Israel, with the tacit support of the Sunni Arabs, are showing that strength, properly deployed in a good cause, can make a difference.
Britain and Europe barely have any strength these days – which explains why they disparage its use.
The world should be grateful that neither is in the driving seat.
