One big question coming out of Israel’s attacks on Iran is whether they will bring the Middle East any closer to a structure of peace based on religious tolerance and state sovereignty. One clue may lie in Israel’s decision to make sure its military operations – dubbed Rising Lion – were “precise.”
Claiming an imminent threat from Iran’s nuclear program, Israel launched a “preemptive” attack on June 13 to knock out Iranian nuclear sites, missile bases, and three senior military leaders as well as six nuclear scientists. Israel’s pre-attack penetration of Iranian defenses startled many observers.
But note this: Israel did not assassinate the commander in chief. Under Iran’s Constitution, that is the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
One reason for not targeting him may be that Israel prefers the Iranian people bring down the Islamic Republic, not a foreign power. In fact, many Iranians writing on social media welcomed the killing of the top military brass, some of whom have suppressed pro-democracy protests. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu all but invited a domestic revolt in a video to Iranians on Friday: “I have no doubt that your day of liberation from this tyranny is closer than ever.”
Another reason that Mr. Khamenei was not killed might be that Israel believes he is the only person who can permanently dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Eliminating him could unleash a power struggle resulting in an even more defiant ayatollah.
Since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, Israel has assassinated the top leaders of Hamas in Gaza as well as of Hezbollah in Lebanon. But these militant groups are just proxies of Iran. Only Iran and Israel, as two big state powers, can decide to bring peace to the Middle East.
“This moment, perilous as it is,” wrote Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute, “also offers a narrow opening to revive diplomacy toward a quick and satisfactory deal that takes the specter of an Iranian nuclear weapons program off the table.”
As a democracy, Israel depends on its voters to shape the government’s strategy. The question now is whether the Iranian people will be allowed to do the same.
