Despite a major increase in airstrikes by both Ukraine and Russia, the Kremlin says that it is ready to go forward with direct peace talks with Kyiv on June 2 in Istanbul.
The announcement of talks comes amid growing doubts in Washington that any peace process is even viable. For weeks, almost every night has seen both Ukraine and Russia fire scores of drones and missiles at each other.
But while President Donald Trump’s peace aspirations appear to be nonstarters for Russia, much to his frustration, Russia seems to be holding fast to its vision of a postwar Ukraine. Experts say that Moscow envisions a lengthy and difficult period of diplomatic engagement, via a strictly bilateral dialogue between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators. In the Kremlin’s view, it proceeds from the draft agreements that were reached in March 2022 direct talks, but were aborted for unknown reasons.
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After looking imminent just a few weeks ago, peace talks around the war in Ukraine have been halting. The latest attempt to hash out a deal looks set for Monday, but Russia, Ukraine, and the United States all still seem far apart.
The Russian idea is that at least the outlines of a final settlement must be reached before any ceasefire can be implemented. Meanwhile, they insist that the war will continue, and reports suggest that Russia is preparing a major summer military offensive regardless of the course of the talks.
“Ukraine just isn’t ready to recognize that it’s already been defeated on the battlefield,” says Viktor Litovkin, military editor of the official ITAR-Tass news agency. Russia is not in a hurry, he says, but will continue the military pressure until Kyiv accepts Moscow’s basic terms.
Divergent views of peace
The proposed June 2 talks would build on earlier talks that took place May 16. The first face-to-face talks in three years, they saw working-level Ukrainian and Russian delegations set terms for the biggest-ever prisoner swap, and they also agreed to bring a detailed draft of their respective proposals for a final peace settlement to the next meeting.
The POW exchange has since been successfully completed, and the Kremlin says it has almost finalized its version of a road map for peace which it will be ready to present when talks resume.
Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
“Russia has said that it is committed to peace negotiations, and that naturally entails a willingness to compromise,” says Dmitry Suslov, an expert with the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. “What we expect to see is both sides present their separate proposals as a starting point, which will be followed by a long process of reconciling the different positions.”
That differs sharply from expectations in President Trump’s administration, whose own 22-point peace plan has already been rejected by both sides. Mr. Trump wants an immediate ceasefire, followed by a territorial division determined mainly by the shape of the front lines. It would include de jure recognition of Russian ownership of Crimea and de facto acceptance of Russia’s control over areas it physically occupies, as well as Ukraine’s adoption of formal neutral status and a measure of sanctions relief for Russia.
But no demilitarization or change of Ukraine’s geopolitical orientation is anticipated in Mr. Trump’s plan, and the United States has signed a “minerals deal” with Ukraine that aims to keep it invested in the country’s security.
In an angry social media post May 26, Mr. Trump unleashed his frustrations with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, including the escalation of Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities and what he sees as foot-dragging by both sides. “I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY!” he wrote, apparently referring to massive Russian drone attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.
Both sides have been firing unprecedented numbers of drones at each other’s cities, though Russian attacks appear, perhaps due to the deterioration of Ukrainian air defenses, to be more destructive.
Mr. Trump also slammed Mr. Zelenskyy, writing, “Everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don’t like it, and it better stop.”
Mr. Trump has said he might walk away from the Ukraine/Russia conundrum altogether, and alternatively suggested that he might ramp up anti-Russian sanctions to bring Mr. Putin to heel. Neither of those threats seems to worry people in Moscow very much.
“Ninety percent of all possible sanctions have already been imposed on Russia, and they have failed to achieve any of their main goals,” says Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser. “Even if they were effective, Russia would never negotiate under threat of sanctions. … Russian leaders have said that they appreciate Trump’s attempts to promote peace, but making threats just undermines that effort.”
Russia’s demands of Ukraine
The Kremlin has declined to reveal the contents of its initial peace plan until it has been presented to the Ukrainian side at the next talks. But analysts say the main points are easy to deduce from public statements by Mr. Putin and other Russian leaders.
Ramil Sitdikov/Sputnik Pool Photo/AP
The first anticipated condition is that Ukraine must accept permanent neutrality and nonnuclear status, and substantial limits on military size, equipment, and cooperation with foreign powers. Russian analysts say it should look something like Austria, whose neutrality was enshrined in its constitution and affirmed by an international treaty.
Second, Ukraine must roll back what the Kremlin calls Ukrainian efforts to stamp out Russian language, culture, and history. (Kyiv did act to ban Soviet symbols and monuments, and Ukrainian officials have persecuted the Moscow-affiliated Ukrainian Orthodox Church.) Ukraine must also grant equal rights to Russian speakers, who the Kremlin says are being discriminated against by Kyiv’s attempts to promote Ukrainian as the state language.
Next is what Russian leaders refer to as “denazification,” which appears to mean limiting the influence of ultranationalists, who Moscow believes wield disproportionate power in Ukraine. Russia also is expected to demand an end to what it sees as the glorification of World War II-era Ukrainian nationalists such as Stepan Bandera, who collaborated with the Nazis and fought against the Soviet army.
Finally, Russia will most likely demand full control over Crimea and the four additional Ukrainian provinces that it already claims to have annexed: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia’s initial peace proposal will almost certainly include the demand that Ukrainian troops vacate the portions of those four regions that they still control.
Russian analysts insist that acquiring Ukrainian territory was never Moscow’s key objective. In the abortive March 2022 draft deals, Russia even expressed a willingness to return to preinvasion lines. But after more than three years of costly fighting, Mr. Putin will have to show the Russian people some tangible rewards, they say.
Still, “If our other demands were met, I think Russia could easily make concessions on where to place the final borders,” says Mr. Markov.
At the end of the day, Moscow’s priority is a neutral Ukraine that serves as a buffer zone between Russia and NATO, says Mr. Suslov.
“Normalizing relations with the U.S. is an important goal for Russia, but we will not sacrifice our basic interests just to make Trump happy,” he says. “We do not insist on the removal of an independent and sovereign Ukraine. What we object to is Ukraine as an instrument of Western policy against Russia. That has to end.”
