FURIOUS Iran would face a devastating invasion if it followed through on threats to assassinate Donald Trump, a former US advisor has warned.
Dr Kenneth Katzman, a retired Middle East analyst for the US Congressional Research Service, even warned of a “full-scale invasion” with special forces storming the streets of Tehran.
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He spoke after Trump’s former security advisor, John Bolton, said the US President is “at the top” of an “assassination list” from the Middle East nation.
Bolton, who claimed he is also on the hit list, said it would be revenge for a US airstrike in 2020 in Iraq that killed military leader Qasem Soleimani, ordered by Trump.
But Dr Katzman warns Iran would face a response so dramatic it would overthrow its regime.
Analysts have previously warned such a conflict would be a devastating quagmire.
US historian Max Boot predicted would take up to 1.6million troops for the US to fully invade and occupy Iran.
The US forces would face a war that spill across the Middle East as they tried to battle Iran’s wide-ranging proxy forces.
Other forecasts have predicted smaller attacks – such as the long mulled joint-strike with Israel on Iran’s nuclear sites.
Dr Katzman told The Sun: “If Trump were to be assassinated, there would be many targets in Tehran that would be attacked.
“Islamic Revolutionary Guard Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters is in Tehran, the besieged headquarters, all the security forces I’m sure would be attacked.
“If they assassinated the US president you could even see, conceivably, US ground operations in Iran if that happens.
“It would be just so dramatic. You could even see US special forces operations in Iran and infantry operations in Iran, the marketplace is wide open.
“The objective of troops in Iran? To take the regime out.
He added: “If they assassinated a US president, a full-scale invasion is very much an option.”
In November last year the Justice Department said it charged a man, Farhad Shakeri, 51, for his alleged role in a plot to assassinate Trump, tasked by the Iranian regime.
Iran, where the suspect is now believed to be, denies this.
Dr Katzman also warned that Bolton’s comments may have been a cry for help over an “active plot”
He continued: “I think he’s trying to highlight that he feels threatened. Trump withdrew the security protection for some of these guys that served in the first term that I mentioned, including Bolton.
“So I think Bolton, by bringing this up again, is trying to signal that he feels he needs security, there is still a threat, still an active plot.”
“Iran knows full well that that’s the kind of thing that could bring a massive US intervention, on enough scale that the regime is gone.”
But Dr Katzman believes the extent of the retaliation will deter Iran from following through with any threats.
Instead, he believes the threats serve as leverage to intimidate the US.
He added: “What’s always puzzled me and other experts like me: what is Iran hoping to achieve here? Because the retaliation presumably would be so dramatic.
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Trump on Iran ‘hit list’
by James Moules, Foreign News Reporter
DONALD Trump is right “at the top” of Iran’s chilling assassination hit list, a former White House official has claimed.
John Bolton, who served in Trump’s first administration, made the ominous warning that Iran has an “assassination list” on Sky News’ The World.
The ex-National Security Adviser warned: “I think Iran’s terror network is really quite extensive in Europe and in the United States.”
He claimed that a number of US government officials were being targeted in relation to the assassination of top Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020.
Soleimani, who was designated as a terrorist by the United States, had been a highly powerful figure in the brutal Iranian regime.
He commanded the Quds Force, a branch of Iran’s security forces that is responsible for operations outside Iranian territory.
Bolton claimed he is himself on Iran’s hit list, although he made clear that Trump is the number one target.
“President Trump is at the top of their list of their targets,” he said.
The Iranian regime would target people using “Eastern European criminal gangs and others”, Bolton further claimed
“No one could quite figure out what the percentage is for Iran in actually going ahead with these types of operations.
“The retaliation is sure to be dramatic, but I think the sense is that Iran feels that these operations do give it a certain leverage and ability to intimidate, an ability to exert leverage.
“That’s the way Iran sees it. I don’t think anybody here necessarily sees it that way, but that’s how Iran sees it.
“There have been no policy changes by the threat of Iranian assassination attempts in the United States.
“These threats have not caused any change in policy more favorable to the regime, so it’s a mystery what Iran is really thinking with these plots.”
Dr Katzman served his role – specialising in Iran, the Persian Gulf States, Afghanistan, Iran back groups in Iran and South Asia – from 1991 to 2022.
His job was to provide reports and briefings to Members of Congress on US policy, analysing legislative proposals.
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