Banner portraits of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hang from buildings and overpasses in Damascus. In the Syrian capital’s hotels, Kuwaiti, Qatari, and Emirati investors fill the lobbies.
In Baghdad, at a successful Arab League summit, the Iraqi government declared its support for a united Arab world and its rejection of foreign interference.
And in Lebanon, with Hezbollah militarily diminished and on the back foot politically, a strengthened government is making diplomatic overtures to Gulf Arab states.
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A new regional alignment is rising in the Middle East signaling a shift in power away from Iran’s weakened “Axis of Resistance.” Moderate Sunnis seeking stability and prosperity now have friendly governments in Beirut, Damascus, and Baghdad.
That’s all in stark contrast to a year ago.
After a decade-and-a-half of turmoil and division, the Arab world is emerging united – with the Gulf-led bloc of Arab states on the rise.
In place of Iran’s waning “Axis of Resistance,” which once stretched from Iraq to Lebanon, a new moderate alliance is burgeoning in the Middle East: an axis of cooperation.
Rather than militias, this new axis – anchored by the bloc of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt – is run by government technocrats and pragmatists who put stability, cross-border economic cooperation, and prosperity first.
Sectarianism is out. Deal-making for their countries’ future is in.
“Iran has more or less lost its proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and even Iraq. Syria is looking to join the Arab axis of moderation. … This is a geopolitical game changer in the region,” says Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a nonresident senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center.
“This is a good time for the moderate capitals in the Arab region,” says Dr. Abdulla, a UAE national and retired professor of political science. “This is an Arab renaissance in the making.”
Syria is the lynchpin
The catalyst for this regional realignment was the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.
With Bashar al-Assad’s eviction and the exodus of Iran and its proxies, Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia have rushed to engage Syria’s new rulers to bring the country back into the Arab fold.
Last week, Saudi Arabia successfully lobbied U.S. President Donald Trump to lift the United States’ sanctions on Syria to prevent its further economic collapse – a foreign policy win for Riyadh and the moderate bloc.
In a viral social media response, Syrians mimicked the Crown Prince – who placed two hands over his chest in gratitude while Mr. Trump announced the lifting of sanctions – to express their own gratitude to the Saudi leader.
“The fall of Assad has enabled Saudi Arabia to counter both Iranian influence and Israeli military actions in Syria by supporting a new government open to Arab reintegration,” says Dr. Hesham Alghannam, a nonresident scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, in an email interview. “Saudi Arabia’s diplomacy fosters this Arab-centric alliance focused on stability and reconstruction.”
Meanwhile, in Iraq, a government led by Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is focusing on services and developments at home and promoting regional peace.
This turnaround follows a decade-plus of war, revolution, and terrorism that saddled the Arab world with several failed states, where non-Arab powers such as Turkey, Russia, and Iran intervened.
This new axis acts as a first line of defense for moderate Arab states, protecting stability at home and ending foreign intervention in neighboring states.
“Despite the sectarian rifts, a new axis of Arab cooperation is emerging in Damascus, Baghdad, and Beirut,” writes Dr. Alghannam, head of the national security program at Naif Arab University in Riyadh. These “pragmatic governments prioritize economic ties and sovereignty, reducing reliance on Iran’s axis and resisting Israeli interventions. This axis strengthens Arab resilience against external disruptions” presented by Iran and Israel.
Gulf states are also using this nascent cooperation to export their vision for the region: stable states headed by pragmatic, moderate governments that look for cross-border cooperation and economic prosperity.
“For years the region was hijacked by extremists on both sides of the aisle, Shiite and Sunni. A main pillar of this vision is bringing not only stability, but moderation to the region; moderate, pragmatic governments,” says Dr. Abdulla.
Another milestone for the rise of the moderate axis is President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar last week.
Mr. Trump praised Saudi Arabia’s approach as “commerce, not chaos” and applauded moderate Arab states’ vision.
One Gulf Arab diplomat describes the Trump visit as the “crowning moment” of this Arab renaissance.
“This is a new era for the region, one driven not by ideology or sectarianism, but by progress and cooperation,” says the diplomat, who was unauthorized to speak to the press. “This is an Arab-led, Arab-driven realignment that brings sovereignty and self-determination back to Arab states. And it is being recognized by Washington.”
Projects and progress
Only months old, this realignment is already bearing fruit, including investment in Syrian infrastructure and agriculture.
This week, a Jordanian government delegation and Damascus agreed on a “cooperation roadmap” in the fields of irrigation, industry, trade, energy, and transportation.
A Gulf-Iraq electricity grid connection is expected to be completed by the end of 2025; it will see Gulf states provide electricity to Iraq to ease the country’s energy crunch.
Meanwhile, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are moving to lift travel restrictions to Lebanon, a first step toward rebuilding ties and the eventual return of Gulf tourists, previously a key driver of Lebanon’s economy.
Yet moderate Arab states have struggled to make headway on the Palestinian issue, despite advocating for Gaza on the world stage.
“The Palestinian issue remains a challenge for Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, with limited wins due to Israeli aggression in Gaza and U.S. policy constraints,” says Dr. Alghannam. “Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic efforts are stalled by Israel’s actions, frustrating progress.”
The unnamed Gulf diplomat says there’s a sense of hope in Arab capitals that this bulwark of cooperation, which promotes a peaceful path to Palestinian statehood, will one day achieve results in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“There may be barriers to progress on the Palestinian issue, but for the first time in the 21st century the Arab world is united and is working as one with one voice,” the diplomat says.
“Across the region, progress and cooperation are on the rise.”
