“Trump 2028.”
Suggestions that President Donald Trump could run for a third term seem to be everywhere: On signs behind the president as he addressed a Michigan rally last week marking the first 100 days of his second term, with the crowd chanting “Three! Three! Three!” On baseball caps selling for $50 via the retail site of his company, the Trump Organization. In the rhetoric of supporters, aides – and the president himself.
The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution explicitly prohibits election to more than two terms as president, but that hasn’t stopped the speculation. Perhaps, supporters say, President Trump can find a loophole.
Why We Wrote This
The 22nd Amendment explicitly prohibits election to more than two terms as president, but supporters hope President Donald Trump can find a loophole. Mr. Trump has variously dismissed and encouraged the speculation.
Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon has regularly floated the idea of a Trump third term. Last month, he told HBO talk show host Bill Maher that “the 22nd Amendment is open to interpretation.”
“On the afternoon of January 20th of 2029,” Mr. Bannon declared, Mr. Trump is “going to be president of the United States.”
Of course, Mr. Trump may be kidding when he publicly toys with the idea of a third term. Until recently, that’s how such comments were largely perceived by both the media and congressional Republicans. But in late March, when asked on a phone call to NBC News to clarify if he really might try to run for a third term, he insisted “there are methods which you could do it,” and added: “I’m not joking.”
On Sunday, however, Mr. Trump reversed course. “I’ll be an eight-year president,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” Seeking a third term, he said, is “something that, to the best of my knowledge, you’re not allowed to do.”
Mr. Trump is already the oldest president to be inaugurated; he would be 82 in 2028. Still, observers say even his latest denial seems unlikely to completely shut down the third-term talk.
“It’s a political weapon,” says a Republican strategist with ties to the Trump orbit, speaking not for attribution so as to speak freely. “He wants that conversation to go forever, because otherwise he’s a lame duck.”
Talk of a third term is one way of eclipsing discussion of a 2028 GOP presidential field. Besides, the Republican strategist says, the president just enjoys seeing the reaction.
“Trump brings it up to watch people’s heads explode,” the GOP operative says.
Julia Azari, a political scientist at Marquette University in Wisconsin, echoes this view: “A lot of it is about getting attention, and creating a frenzy.”
The third term chatter has particularly unsettled Mr. Trump’s opponents, given the ways in which he has been testing the limits of presidential power in his second term. And of course, Mr. Trump tried to hold onto power in 2020, claiming without evidence that the election had been stolen.
For Democrats, it’s another reason to paint Mr. Trump as a wannabe autocrat, in the vein of Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping, and Hungary’s Viktor Orban, who all blew through two-term limits and are now effectively “leaders for life” of their respective countries.
Could there actually be a “loophole?”
The 22nd Amendment starts by saying: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” One commonly suggested “work-around” is to have Vice President JD Vance run for president, and Mr. Trump run for vice president. Then, if they win, Mr. Vance steps aside, and Mr. Trump becomes president.
But the 12th Amendment to the Constitution actually prevents such a scenario. It states that “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.” Having already been elected president twice, therefore, Mr. Trump is ineligible to run for VP.
What about amending the Constitution to repeal the two-term limit? That would be a mighty steep climb, experts say, especially given the close margins of control in Congress and today’s highly polarized politics. A constitutional amendment requires two-thirds approval from both the House and Senate, plus the approval of three-quarters of state legislatures.
Here’s another loophole scenario: The Republicans put up a winning ticket for president and VP, win a majority in the House of Representatives, and elect Mr. Trump as speaker. The president and VP resign, and the speaker, as second in the line of succession, becomes president. (The speakership of the House does not require eligibility for the presidency.)
“Theoretically, that would be legal,” writes Jeremy Paul, a constitutional law professor at Northeastern University in Boston, in an email. “But it would make for a deeply confusing campaign for voters.”
And, he adds, the GOP would likely need a bigger cushion in their majority, as not every member would go along.
Why there’s a two-term limit
Among the nation’s Founding Fathers, who rebelled against monarchy, there was no consensus on term limits for the presidency.
“Those who did not favor them wanted to preserve, among other things, the possibility of a good president serving a long tenure, especially during a time of crisis,” writes Michael Korzi, author of a book on presidential term limits, in an email.
Others saw long tenures as inviting corruption and abuse of power, adds Professor Korzi, political science chair at Towson University in Maryland.
George Washington, the first president, was trusted to serve as many terms as he wished, and opted for two. Thomas Jefferson, the third president, always had anti-Federalist leanings, Mr. Korzi notes, and was explicit in his view that a president should serve no more than two terms. When he stepped down, he deliberately linked his decision to the principle of “rotation.” His immediate successors followed that model, establishing the two-term tradition.
That tradition held until the mid-20th century, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt ran for and won four terms, amid economic depression and war. He died in 1945, soon after the start of his fourth term, having concealed his poor health from voters. The 22nd Amendment formally establishing a two-term limit was ratified in 1951.
Mr. Trump famously enjoys flouting norms and traditions, but most experts believe getting around the 22nd Amendment to serve a third term would be all but impossible.
“Never say never, I suppose,” Mr. Korzi says, “but the case against a third term is constitutionally very strong. One might even say ironclad.”
