As she watches emergency crews clear rubble in a cloud of choking dust while the sun sets, Olena Khirkovska is simply grateful to be alive. Russia’s latest missile and drone attacks on Kyiv shattered her apartment, crushed her car, and killed most of her neighbors.
“All our belongings are gone – but thank God we are alive,” says Ms. Khirkovska, standing in the wreckage, wrapped in a borrowed sweater. “We are one of the lucky ones.”
Russia’s large-scale assault on the capital in the early hours of last Thursday killed at least 13, underscoring the strain on Ukraine’s air defenses – and on its civilian population, which is long accustomed to monitoring phones for alarms signaling incoming missiles.
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Last week’s deadly strikes on Kyiv were indicative of a shift in Russian strategy: to try to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses as U.S. materiel support ebbs. But Ukrainians are holding on.
With American aid uncertain and European production of key systems lagging, Ukrainians like Ms. Khirkovska find themselves not only grieving, but also asking how long their country can hold the line – and at what cost. Across Ukraine, frustration grows at diplomatic efforts that seem only to embolden Russia.
“Even in the midst of international diplomatic efforts to stop this war, Russia continues to kill civilians,” noted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “This means that Putin is not afraid.”
“I blame the terrorist state Russia,” says Ms. Khirkovska, an accountant. She also blames the West for inadequate support to Ukraine. “They just won’t understand until such scenes reach their cities. Our air defenses used to be more efficient, but Russian attacks have intensified and diversified.”
An officer of Ukraine’s air defense forces confirms that assessment. “The Russians have changed tactics since the so-called peace talks began,” he says, estimating a threefold or fourfold increase in missile and drone attacks. “They gather as much firepower as they can, and then they target one area with all they have. We cannot intercept such a huge number of missiles and drones focused one spot.”
Negotiate, then strike
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War documented a clear intensification of Russian combined drone and missile activity in the first several months of 2025, compared with the same span in 2024. Strikes steadily increased after President Donald Trump’s inauguration in mid-January. They hit new heights after his first phone call with President Vladimir Putin and during talks between the United States and Russia in Saudi Arabia.
The volume and scale of attacks appear to rise in tandem with international negotiations.
“There are no such things as coincidences,” says the Ukrainian air defense officer, speaking on condition of anonymity because he’s not authorized to speak on the record. “When it happens once, you can say it is an impression. When you see it happen multiple times … it’s a strategy.”
The firepower that Russia directed at the capital shortly after 1 a.m. on April 24 included six cruise missiles from the Black Sea; two ballistic missiles from Voronezh, Russia; and a swarm of Shahed drones. It marked the largest attack on the capital this year and pushed air defense systems to “the edge of their capabilities.”
Russia, the officer says, used its purported Easter truce to accumulate firepower. Military and critical-energy infrastructure is the highest priority for the activation of air defense systems to intercept missiles. Ukraine’s current air defense capabilities are insufficient to adequately protect civilian areas.
“We depend a lot on what is provided to us by Western partners,” says the officer. “A large number of these capabilities have been suspended. We do not have the means to protect ourselves properly.”
Kyiv is bracing for worse. President Trump has threatened to pull all support for Ukraine and its military if there is no breakthrough in peace talks. A diplomatic push in London last week was downgraded amid bitter frustration in Kyiv over U.S. proposals that, in Ukraine’s view, favor Moscow by including territorial concessions.
On Monday, President Putin did declare a three-day ceasefire from May 8 to 10, to coincide with the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Soviet Union and its allies over Nazi Germany in World War II. Both Kyiv and the White House responded with calls for a permanent ceasefire.
Fighting without the U.S.
Ukraine’s ability to defend its cities from Russian missile attacks heavily depends on U.S. support, particularly in air defense and intelligence. American satellite data and surveillance provide early warnings of incoming strikes, allowing Ukraine to activate defenses in time to save lives.
U.S.-supplied systems like the Patriot to intercept ballistic and cruise missiles are considered essential here. They create a protective shield over urban areas to prevent large-scale civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Interruptions in U.S. support leave Ukraine significantly more vulnerable.
In March, the Trump administration halted military support to Ukraine for a week, effectively testing Ukrainian and European resolve to continue fighting against Russia. The U.S. provides 30% of Ukraine’s military capabilities, another 30% comes from European and other international allies, and Ukraine covers the remaining 40%.
“That week showed that Ukraine and Europe could continue to fight against Russia without the United States,” says Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network. It also underscored in capitals across the Atlantic that the U.S. is an increasingly unreliable ally, setting in motion efforts to fill the gap.
In the long term, U.S. support is not critical, according to Mr. Samus – with one exception. “What is a critical dependence is the Patriot air defense system, which is still unique because of the capabilities to down Russian ballistic missiles,” he says.
He notes that European alternatives like the SAMP/T air defense system are rare, with only a couple deployed in Europe and Ukraine. More are being produced, but it will take months to produce at a “normal tempo.” And even then, that won’t be enough, he says.
Staying put
In Kyiv, residents have adjusted to the regular wail of sirens and periodic explosions. Even though the missile rounds that struck last Thursday stood out for their illuminative and ground-shaking intensity, the capital quickly bounced back. Adults showed up to work with bags under their eyes after dropping off children at school.
“I feel completely powerless when I see everything that we are fighting for get destroyed, to see all this manipulation,” says Maryna Trofymova, referring to Mr. Trump’s diplomatic efforts and the scaled-up Russian attacks. “But we must hold on.”
Before dusk last Thursday, emergency crews recovered two more bodies in Kyiv’s Sviatoshynskyi district. A stuffed animal on a destroyed swing appeared to survey the scene. One emergency worker retrieved a dead black cat from the rubble.
Such events are traumatizing – or, in the case of Ms. Trofymova, retraumatizing. Last summer a Russian missile pummeled her workplace, the national children’s hospital in Kyiv. Still, leaving is not a consideration.
“It is our choice to be here now,” she says firmly. “Our homeland is here, and we love our homeland.”
Oleksandr Naselenko supported reporting for this story.
