Kemi Badenoch has managed to overhaul Nigel Farage‘s poll lead – leaving the Tories, Reform and the Greens all neck-and-neck in first place for the first time.
The poll, which was conducted by former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft, puts the three parties on 21 per cent each, with Labour languishing in fourth place on 17 per cent.
The findings will cheer Ms Badenoch, who has faced mutterings about her future as Tory leader, while rattling nerves within Mr Farage’s own ranks over his seeming loss of momentum ahead of next month’s local elections.
It is the first time in nearly a year that Reform has not been in the lead.
On Saturday night, polling guru Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said the three-way tie indicated that the UK was in ‘uncharted territory’ in terms of the complexity of voting patterns and the likelihood of no single party being able to command a majority at the next general election.
It is also likely to increase calls for the Tories and Reform to ‘unite the Right’ by forming a pre-election alliance.
If Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour, Zack Polanski’s Greens and Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats joined forces in a ‘coalition of chaos’, while the Right remained split, the Leftist alliance would theoretically be able to command 47 per cent of the vote and form a government.
Despite Labour’s lowly ranking, one party source had a bullish take on the poll this weekend, telling this newspaper: ‘We are just four points off the lead.’
The poll (pictured), which was conducted by former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft, puts the three parties on 21 per cent each – an unprecedented three-way tie
The findings will cheer Ms Badenoch (pictured, on the local election campaign trail this week), who has faced mutterings about her future as Tory leader
Lord Ashcroft’s way of measuring party support is different from that of most pollsters.
Instead of asking voters what they would do in a hypothetical election tomorrow, he asks them how likely they would be to back each party at the next election – whenever it comes.
His method correctly pointed to the Leave vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum at a time when many other pollsters were anticipating a victory for Remain.
The drop in support for Reform has also been echoed by other polls. The party has gone from highs of 35 per cent in September to an average of 26 per cent now.
Senior Tory figures mock former Tories, such as Robert Jenrick and Nadhim Zahawi, who have defected to Reform, as having left too soon for a ‘one-man band’.
Last week, Mr Farage sacked his new housing spokesman, Simon Dudley, who defected from the Tories in February, after Mr Dudley said that the 2017 Grenfell fire, which killed 72 people, was a ‘tragedy’ but ‘everyone dies in the end’.
Mr Farage’s support base on the Right is also being threatened by his arch-critic, ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe, who has established a party called Restore Britain.
Mr Lowe says that Restore is already Britain’s fourth-largest party, with 123,000 members, surpassing the Tories on 113,000.
And it will rattle nerves within Mr Farage’s own ranks over his seeming loss of momentum ahead of next month’s local elections. Pictured: Mr Farage at a Reform UK press conference this week
If Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour, Zack Polanski’s Greens and Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats joined forces in a ‘coalition of chaos’, while the Right remained split, the Leftist alliance would theoretically be able to command 47 per cent of the vote and form a government. Pictured: Mr Polanski at a trade union conference this week
For her part, Ms Badenoch said on Friday that she would remain as Conservative leader whatever the results of the local elections next month.
She said: ‘It is absurd [to suggest I would be replaced]. I am going to fight on.
‘I don’t know of any party leader who has decided that, following a local election result, they would throw in the towel.
‘What kind of person would I be if I just gave up? It’s hardly what voters want, either. We had many leadership contests before I came in, and fat lot of good it did us.’
Other questions in Lord Ashcroft’s poll reveal the public’s disquiet about America’s war on Iran.
Just 11 per cent of voters think the UK should be taking a more active role in the conflict, with 45 per cent saying we should not.
Two-thirds do not think Donald Trump has ‘a plan’ for the war; 23 per cent do.
There is also some consolation for Sir Keir in that only 13 per cent of voters think his former deputy, Angela Rayner, would make a better PM than him.
It also finds his rival on the left, Mr Polanski, has been partially damaged by his past claim to be able to increase the size of women’s breasts through hypnosis.
Only one per cent say that the boast makes them feel ‘more favourable’ towards him, compared with 33 per cent who say it makes them feel less favourable.
