Michael Shull never imagined that a Democrat from the wealthy suburbs of Washington would represent his community in Congress. His corner of Virginia, with its sprawling farms and winding country roads, has been electing Republicans for more than three decades.
Then came an unusual nationwide redistricting battle, with Democrats and Republicans redrawing congressional lines to boost their chances in November’s midterm elections. Virginia could be next as voters consider a new map that would pair conservative rural areas with liberal suburbs, diluting Republicans’ electoral clout.
“Politicians should be elected to be their people’s voice,” said Shull, a Republican member of Augusta County’s board of supervisors. “Not their party’s voice.”
The vote on the constitutional amendment is on April 21, and early balloting has begun. If voters pass the referendum and it survives a court challenge, Shull’s area within the county would be split between the 7th and 9th Congressional Districts. While the 9th District would be the state’s lone Republican stronghold, the 7th District would resemble a lobster with the long tail beginning in Democrat-dominated Arlington and two claws reaching south into rural communities.
Congressional districts are usually redrawn once a decade, but President Donald Trump started a chain reaction last year by encouraging Texas Republicans to devise a new map to help the party in November. After a cascade of redistricting efforts, Republicans believe they can win a combined nine more U.S. House seats in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, while Democrats think they can win a total of six more seats in California and Utah. Virginia could give Democrats an extra four seats — enough to overturn the GOP’s slim majority, at least as things stand now.
“It’s about making sure that we fight back to what Trump’s done,” said U.S. Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va., He said the party needs to persuade voters that the referendum is “not about embracing gerrymandering.”
“I feel optimistic, but it’s close,” he said.
A rural-urban divide
The referendum comes at a moment when Virginia Democrats have tried to make up ground in rural areas. Last year, Democrat Abigail Spanberger campaigned for governor in oyster towns and agrarian hamlets to engage with more conservative voters. Before that winning campaign, she had represented a congressional district that mixed city suburbs, exurbs and adjacent rural communities.
“Anyone who’s doing their job will be responsive to the communities that they seek to represent,” Spanberger said.
But her results were mixed. In counties where fewer people lived in rural areas, she outperformed Democrat Kamala Harris’ Virginia showing in the 2024 presidential race by an average of 6 percentage points or 7 percentage points. In more rural counties, Spanberger gained about 2 percentage points to 4 percentage points.
Democrat Anthony Flaccavento, former congressional candidate and co-founder of the nonprofit Rural Urban Bridge Initiative, is torn over the referendum.
“At some level, it feels like kicking the can down the road -– which is something that my party has done for a long time –- when it comes to winning back rural and working-class voters,” Flaccavento said.
A welcome change for some
Democrats in rural areas who are tired of being outnumbered by their Republican neighbors are embracing the redistricting plan.
“Fight Back, Vote Yes,” said a sign at a No Kings protest in Louisa County. A second said, “Vote Yes. Stop ICE. No Kings.”
State Del. Dan Helmer, who helped spearhead the redistricting effort, greeted protesters and spoke to the cheering crowd. Helmer is now one of at least four Democrats running in the 7th District.
Helmer said Republicans “think that in red areas like Louisa and in rural areas, that people don’t know what’s going on. But I’m looking around right now, I see strong, proud patriots who know exactly what is going on, who know that we have an aspiring dictator who is trying to take away our democracy.”
Jennifer Lee, who has lived in Louisa for 33 years, said she was eager to support the new district lines. Lee said she felt Republicans were perpetuating a double standard, falsely claiming the 2020 presidential election won by Democrat Joe Biden was stolen from Trump but accepting his push to eliminate Democratic seats through gerrymandering.
“That’s their slogan, right? ‘Stop the steal,’” Lee said. “But they started ‘the steal.’ They’re stealing the seats now in all these districts.”
Democrats see a fight for survival
At a town hall hosted by Democrats at a rural Goochland County recreation center, voters nibbled on finger foods and passed around bottled water as they debated whether redistricting violated some kind of moral code.
“I’m sorry, morality just goes out the door right now. We have to do what it takes for us to survive,” said Bruce Silverman, a local nephrologist. He was voting “yes.”
At one point, Roberta Thacker-Oliver stood up to talk. She votes in the rural 9th District, which would become even more Republican with the new map.
“In the redistricting, the 9th is going to become bigger and redder,” she said, adding, “I need to know what to tell my community about why they need to take one for the team.”
“What do we tell them?” she said.
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Associated Press writers Maya Sweedler, Ashlyn Still and Joey Cappelletti in Washington contributed to this report.
