Who says you can’t teach an old mullah new tricks?
After watching Donald Trump take the kind of direct action that American presidents have avoided for the previous 46 years – twice, actually – the remnants of Iran’s leadership have begun to suspect that Trump plays the game … differently. Trump has, in both June of last year and in February of this year, warned that he’s willing to use military force to end threats from Iran if they don’t negotiate in good faith. Both times, Trump has followed through, unlike his predecessors, who often talked tough and then delivered cash on pallets.
Now Trump wants to talk again, and the Iranians have finally acknowledged their engagement in that diplomatic process. They are, however, suspicious that Trump might, er, do something again if the regime plays its usual games, the Wall Street Journal reports this morning:
Iran is worried that attempts to secure a cease-fire could be a trap, Iranian officials and Arab counterparts who speak with them said.
Specifically, officials in Tehran are concerned that any face-to-face negotiations to end the war may lead to an attempt on the life of Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliament speaker and former paramilitary commander who the U.S. wants to take part in any discussions. Ghalibaf has so far been one of the few senior Iranian leaders to escape Israeli strikes.
These people also said officials in Tehran worry that President Trump’s announcement that he would postpone strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure after what he described as “productive” talks might just be an attempt to damp oil prices before resuming strikes.
Scratch that about old mullahs. If that’s their real concern, none of them are playing with full decks. What would be the point of lowering the spot price of oil for only five days? If Trump resumes strikes, the price of oil will go back up again, and consumers in the West won’t even notice a flutter downward in energy prices.
That’s not their real concern, however. The Iranians know what we all know: Trump has even more forces heading to the Persian Gulf, as do nearly two dozen Western navies, as well as Japan. As I wrote yesterday, Trump has the luxuries of time and options, while Iran is rapidly running out of both. The US has deployed real ground troops into the theater, including the 82nd Airborne, and two Marine Expeditionary Units (~2500 Marines each) will arrive soon. One MEU will arrive this week on the USS Tripoli and its amphibious task force. US allies are building a massive escort force to uncork shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In that sense, this extension is a ‘trap,’ but it is not a trick. As Trump proved twice before, he’s determined to get what he wants from Iran, one way or the other. The Iranians are being outplayed in every sense, and they can see Trump setting them up for worse to come.
The Iranians probably want to set up a trick of their own by attempting to bargain without giving up anything of consequence, just as they did in February. However, Trump does not plan to lose this war by bugging out with a rebranded JCPOA. He’s certainly not considering the current Iranian demand set, Israeli officials told the Jerusalem Post today, explaining that the odds of a deal before the Friday night deadline on free traffic through the Strait of Hormuz lie somewhere around the same level as the Iranian navy:
The chances of an agreement between the United States and Iran are “very small,” Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
The gap stems not only from US demands – including restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz – but also from Iranian demands.
“At the moment, the Iranians are insisting on American compensation, as well as guarantees from the administration that there will be no further action against Iran as part of any agreement,” two sources involved in mediation efforts told the Post.
And the Iranians may pay for that arrogance with their entire national income stream:
Despite US President Donald Trump’s statements about progress in talks, a source familiar with the details said the deployment of American forces in the Middle East is continuing as usual.
The additional forces include US Marines intended to enable a potential takeover of Iran’s Kharg oil island in the Strait of Hormuz.
Kharg Island doesn’t offer too many advantages for passage through the Strait, which is significantly further south than Kharg. However, seizing Kharg Island would capture 96% of Iran’s export capacity and effectively choke off its income to the IRGC. It would force negotiations of an entirely different character, while denying the IRGC a final, in extremis move of destroying the facilities to punish a popular uprising among Iran’s people.
The clock is ticking in another sense, too. The WSJ also reported last night that the UAE and Saudi Arabia will join the war within “days” if the Iranians don’t capitulate:
U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf are inching toward joining the fight against Iran, getting tougher following persistent attacks that have disrupted their economies and risk giving Tehran long-term leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
The recent steps support America’s ability to carry out airstrikes and open up a new line of attack on Tehran’s finances. They don’t yet go as far as deploying their militaries openly in the fight, a line the Gulf’s rulers have hoped not to cross, though pressure is building as Iran threatens to exert greater sway over the energy-rich region. …
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to re-establish deterrence and is close to a decision to join the attacks, the people said. It is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war, one of the people said.
Control of the Strait of Hormuz is a critical threat to the business models of both countries, as well as Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar. The Saudis and the UAE can ship oil from ports on the western side of the Arabian peninsula thanks to their East-West pipelines, but it’s more expensive, less efficient, and has limited capacity. Plus, the Houthis in Yemen threaten that distribution strategy now too, which may prompt the Saudis to put its military efforts into Yemen to destroy that Iranian proxy army for good, rather than a direct attack on Iran itself.
The Iranian regime remnants are correct in seeing a trap. They still keep walking into it, nonetheless. They have three days or so to figure it out before it closes on them for good.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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