Never again, the politicians had said.
Yet for decades, they had run down our defences until the horrendous events of that fateful summer morning in 2028 shattered our nation’s island sense of protection for ever.
Ballistic missiles rained down on London while dozens of relatively slow-moving Shahed drones – used for years to attack Ukrainian cities – and hundreds of quadcopters hit military sites in Portsmouth and Plymouth.
Shock turned to anger and then rage as Britons realised we had been left unprotected despite years of warning signs. We knew that we were vulnerable, that much had been obvious since March 2026 when Iran launched two missiles aimed at the US-UK base on Diego Garcia.
Was it complacency or a cover-up? Either way, our political leaders buried their heads in the sand, giving us false reassurance while refusing to invest in defence.
Then-Prime Minister Keir Starmer had told reporters: ‘We carry out assessments all the time in order to keep us safe, and there’s no assessment that we’re being targeted in that way.’
DR BOB Seely MBE is the author of The New Total War (pictured)
Horror
In 2028 it wasn’t the ballistic missiles launched from secret sites in Iran that did the real damage, but the hundreds of smaller missiles and drones that killed hundreds at military and civilian targets.
Thousands watched in horror as the Shaheds, sounding like flying lawn mowers, flew over coastal communities towards their targets – like something out of the Second World War.
These small missiles, about which we had thought little, had been launched from an unflagged oil tanker, part of Iran’s shadow fleet linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Worse, Britain’s MI5 and MI6 spy agencies later found the vessel had connections to Russian organised crime oil smugglers backed by an oligarch close to Vladimir Putin.
Does all of the above sound like a science-fiction thriller? Five years ago it might have been. Now it is not, and it will happen somewhere in the Western world: mainland Europe, the UK or North America. Tomorrow? Almost certainly not. In the next decade? Very possibly.
The one way to prevent it is to prepare for it.
Although there is now talk of a ceasefire in the current conflict, Tehran will almost certainly continue to develop its long-range missile capacity, and if not them, other states or even IRGC-connected terror groups will use the ever-easier-to-access technology to threaten our peaceful nation.
When I was an MP in the last ill-fated Conservative government, those who called for more defence spending were regularly ignored; after all, the Armed Forces had always managed to survive.
After 2019, the then Defence Secretary Ben Wallace turned the tide on spending, but the extra money was too little too late, and we underestimated the scale of the task.
For the first time since the 18th century, we can barely muster a Royal Navy fleet, as demonstrated by how only yesterday – a long three weeks after an Iranian-made drone hit the British base of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus – did the Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon reach the eastern Mediterranean to begin ‘operational integration’ into the island’s defence. So, what are the exact threats?
If Iran’s long-range missiles are not within scope, they will be soon. These ballistic missiles (ballistic means they go up high and come down fast) have a range now of nearly 2,500 miles. They carry a warhead over 1.5 tons, enough to destroy large buildings and spread lethal shrapnel up to half a mile around it.
While only the ballistic missiles have the range to hit the UK from Iran, the risk is also from smaller weapons stationed nearby. Every day a small number of shadow fleet vessels sail through the North Sea and English Channel – there are 1,200 of these vessels globally, unregistered and uninsured. Shahed missiles – the ones used to attack Ukrainian cities and now targets across the Middle East – could easily be positioned on hidden racks on the vessels.
The Shaheds are low-flying drone/cruise missiles which travel at up to 250mph and have a range of up to 1,500 miles with a warhead of 220lb. From the North Sea, they could easily hit London – or indeed many targets on mainland Europe. They are not difficult to shoot down, but you need a defensive system in place capable of hitting dozens at a time – a few jets alone or a Royal Navy destroyer will run out of missiles.
Preparation
In the Cold War, we had Bloodhound missiles to protect Britain on RAF sites throughout East Anglia. The only thing we have now is a very limited air defence capability from six destroyers – we were due to have 12, but the last Labour government cut the order. It was then reduced to six and most of these seem to be in dock. Fast jets, if scrambled in time, could shoot some missiles, but we have no land-based defence.
While this Government drags its feet on defence, others prepare to protect their people. Israel is already a world leader. Its defensive system consists of radar systems, battlefield and airspace management as well as three layers of missiles: Arrow (long-range), David’s Sling (medium-range) and the Iron Dome short-range missile – from which the entire system has taken its name in the popular imagination.
Last weekend, Labour did its best to reassure the public.
‘There is no specific assessment that the Iranians are targeting the UK or even could, if they wanted to,’ Housing Secretary Steve Reed told the media. First, this Government has a problem with lying. And while all politicians are seen to be distrusted, Labour has taken political dishonesty to a new low. To be blunt, who believes Labour’s reassurances? And why was the Housing Minister despatched to tell us?
Second, if there isn’t a ballistic threat now, there will be in the future. This is why Germany has announced a $4billion (£3billion) deal to buy from Israel the latest Arrow missile. They hope to have it operational by 2030. Germany is also leading a Europe-wide Air Defence initiative.
This needs to be part of our national defence priority.
Third, as I have shown, there are ways of hitting the UK with mass, slower-moving drones, for which we appear to have done little by way of thinking, let alone actions.
We need a flexible, movable defence which involves building our own specialised system against air attacks, similar to the Iron Dome but unique for an island nation 11 times larger than Israel.
Our scientists and experts need to wargame both high-end threats from Russian and then Iranian ballistic missiles, but also more hybrid attacks designed to cause mass casualties, inculcate panic and heighten social tensions. It’s clear Labour came into power without a plan, which is why it is such a mess, and why our problems are getting worse.
Negligence
The failure to grip defence is part of a wider negligence in so much policy. They prefer to spend money on welfare and asylum seekers rather than defend our nation.
Any serious political party needs a plan for war. The thinking needs to happen now. It’s not only a question of money, but ideas. We need more ships, planes and soldiers, but they need to be differently equipped. A ship will have to launch or shoot down dozens, possibly hundreds, of drones a day and cope with high-end cyber warfare.
I hope my scenarios never materialise. But if history teaches us one thing, it is that the weaker we look, and the less we deter, the more likely the scenarios we fear are to come true.
■ DR BOB Seely MBE is the author of The New Total War.
