No doubt they do … now. Do we? Should we?
On Saturday night, Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran to stop targeting shipping in the Gulf of Hormuz. Unless they complied within 48 hours, Trump warned that the US and Israel would destroy all electricity production in Iran. Iran responded – publicly, anyway – with threats to bomb everything they could reach with their drones and missiles.
With about twelve hours to go before Iran’s National Lights-Out Day, Trump posted a new twist to the story on Truth Social. Trump has postponed the strikes because the Iranian regime has apparently started talking more seriously about resolving all of the issues “completely”:
I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
A five-day pause does not necessarily mean that the ultimatum has been withdrawn. It does set the expectation, however, and that was enough to juice the markets this morning. Stock prices jumped, and crude oil prices dropped, although not by enough to bring immediate relief:
Oil prices dropped Monday and stock futures soared after President Trump said the U.S. will postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, citing productive talks for “a complete and total resolution” of hostilities between the two countries.
Brent crude futures were down 7% to around $104 a barrel after initially dipping below $100 for the first time in days after the announcement.
U.S. stock futures jumped, with contracts tied to major indexes advancing nearly 2%—reversing declines from earlier in the morning, when the prospect of further escalation hung over markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which had earlier jumped above 4.4%, retreated sharply on the news of the talks.
Investors seem to be hedging bets, no doubt with Trump’s mercurial public nature in mind. Iranian state media didn’t hold back, however, painting Trump as weak and retreating in the face of Iranian threats to escalate. They also deny that any negotiations have taken place at all:
(WSJ) Iranian state media portrayed President Trump’s decision to postpone his deadline for attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure after talks with Tehran as “Trump Backed Down.” …
(Reuters) Iran’s Fars news agency, citing a source, says there are no direct or indirect communications with the United States, despite US President Donald Trump’s recent statement about “productive” talks with Tehran.
Fars also says Trump backed down on targeting Iranian power plants after Iran warned it would target power plants across West Asia in response.
This is the problem with setting red lines with specific timelines. Any change afterward tends to look like weakness in one’s public posture, regardless of what happens in private. Trump got caught in that same trap in early January after warning the Iranian regime not to attack protesters before he could assemble his armada. “Help is on the way” looked like an empty promise before February 28, and the lack of immediate follow-up emboldened the IRGC. This may end up having the same effect.
That lesson cuts both ways, however. The IRGC’s military junta didn’t learn the lesson from that sequence either. Trump does not back down when he has extended his personal credibility; he sometimes recalculates and re-strategizes, but he doesn’t back down without forcing public concessions. Venezuela just learned that lesson; Cuba will learn it eventually, too. Trump is currently deploying even more resources to the Gulf, including two amphibious carrier groups with two Marine Expeditionary Units comprising between four and five thousand Marines. The USS Tripoli will arrive just about the same time as the new deadline Trump set for these talks. He’s still recalculating and re-strategizing, and still moving pieces on the chessboard. Trump may well want all of those pieces to be in place before provoking an even larger response to play defense more effectively while ramping up the offense.
However, if Trump really thinks that he can negotiate with this regime, he’s missing the point. The IRGC is not Nicolas Maduro or Miguel Diaz-Canel, and certainly not Delcy Rodriguez. This regime doesn’t want power for power’s sake, but wants to touch off Armageddon for their own non-rational, apocalyptic belief set. There is no basis for negotiations with this regime, which has proven repeatedly over the last 47 years to be bad-faith partners in every sense. Their Gulf neighbors just got taught that lesson in a rather brutal fashion, in fact, and Trump has the best diplomatic position the US has held in the Gulf since Ruhollah Khomeini arrived in Tehran from Paris in 1979 because of it.
Whether Trump is stalling to get resources in position or sincerely wants to try negotiations, the result will be the same. The IRGC will lie, cheat, and renege, and the only way to ensure security in the region is to put an effective end to their grip on power. Five more days will likely prove the futility – and if not, the refusal to comply with any negotiations will produce the same result … just over a longer timeline.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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