When does a mull transform into a plan? Probably about two seconds after the “mull” goes into action. Donald Trump mulled a lot about attacking Iran until he “suddenly” took out Ali Khamenei and his forty-plus thugs, too.
Anyway. Axios’ Marc Caputo and Barak Ravid report that the mulling over Kharg Island continues at the White House, despite an aside from Trump yesterday that arguably contradicted the idea. The strategic and tactical value of this outpost in the Persian Gulf has been obvious not just from the start of the war, but for decades to America’s war planners and even to Trump himself. Trump told The Guardian in 1988 that he’d “take” Kharg Island if Iran ever attacked the US on his watch:
While promoting his book The Art of the Deal in the United Kingdom in 1988, Trump discussed U.S.-Iran relations following the 1979 Iranian Revolution and hostage crisis. Mulling hypothetical military actions, Trump told The Guardian at the time, “They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look a bunch of fools. One bullet shot at one of our men or ships, and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it.”
So what’s the hold-up? Caputo and Ravid report that Trump wants to lower the risk as much as possible before moving from “mull” to “act” on the proposal:
Why it matters: President Trump can’t end the war, at least on his terms, until he breaks Iran’s chokehold on shipping through the strait. In the meantime, global energy prices are surging.
- But an operation to take over Kharg Island, which sits 15 miles offshore and processes 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, could put U.S. troops more directly in the line of fire.
- Thus, such an operation would only be launched after the U.S. military further degrades Iran’s military capacity around the Strait of Hormuz. “We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations,” a source with knowledge of the White House thinking said.
- Such an operation, if approved, would also require more troops. Three different Marine units are on their way to the region. The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending even more troops soon, a U.S. official said.
So what would it take to make this operation a success? The US and Israel would have to negate Iranian batteries of missiles and drones that could rain down attacks on Kharg, not to mention all of the small attack boats that could interfere with landing operations. That shouldn’t take a month, but it might take the two weeks or so for the USS Tripoli carrier task force and its 2500-strong Marine Expeditionary Unit to arrive on station.
Et voila! The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that the US has ordered a broad aerial attack to “Kick Off Battle to Reopen Hormuz”:
The U.S. and its allies have intensified the battle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending low-flying attack jets over the sea lanes to blast Iranian naval vessels and Apache helicopters to shoot down Iran’s deadly drones, American military officials said.
The stepped-up operation is part of a multistage Pentagon plan to reduce the danger from Iranian armed boats, mines and cruise missiles, which have halted ship traffic through the waterway since early March. If the danger can be reduced, the U.S. could send U.S. warships through the strait and eventually escort vessels in and out of the Persian Gulf.
But it will still likely take weeks for the U.S. to clear out Iran’s web of assets that have harassed traffic through a chokepoint for 20% of the world’s oil exports and a large amount of commercial shipping traffic. The strait’s effective closure has sent Brent oil prices soaring above $100 a barrel—briefly touching $119 before closing at $108.65, up 1.2%, on Thursday—and forced the Trump administration to grapple with the economic implications of the war it launched alongside Israel on Feb. 28.
The US has even re-embraced a very effective platform in service to this mission – the A-10 Warthog. I mentioned this in last night’s Final Word because the Air Force keeps trying to retire this plane. It may not fit the concept of war against a major power because of its speed and non-stealth status, but it is devastatingly effective in close-combat situations. Joint Chiefs chair Gen. Dan “Raisin'” Caine announced their deployment in yesterday’s briefing, adding that Apache helicopters – also slated for retirement – are taking part in countering the fast-attack boats that Iran is using to threaten traffic near the Strait of Hormuz:
“The A-10 Warthog is now engaged across the southern flank, targeting fast-attack watercraft in the Strait of Hormuz,” he told reporters at the Pentagon. He added that the Apaches “have joined the fight on the southern flank.”
He said some allies, without naming them, were using Apaches to “handle one-way attack drones,” one of the most effective weapons Iran has used to hit neighboring Arab states and their energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf.
Both the A-10s and the Apaches have for several days been blowing up Iranian fast-attack boats that have been harassing commercial shipping in the strait, a U.S. official said. Jet fighters already in the region can also help take out Iran’s small fast-attack boats and missile threats, but the additional aircraft intensify the campaign, the official said.
Hmmm. Sometimes the old friends are the best friends. While jet fighters can do these tasks, it’s not really the most effective use of those platforms. The Warthogs and Apaches are made for these missions, and they are absolutely devastating at accomplishing them.
If we have decided to focus on these threats, a couple of weeks might be plenty of time for the MEU to arrive and secure Kharg. One retired admiral told Axios that this new battle for Hormuz might make a seizure of Kharg unnecessary, however:
- Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery told Axios such a mission could expose U.S. troops to an unnecessary degree of risk given the uncertain upside.
- “If we seize Kharg Island, they’re going to turn off the spigot on the other end. It’s not like we control their oil production,” he said.
- Montgomery said it was more likely that after around two more weeks of attacks to degrade Iran’s capabilities, the U.S. would send destroyers and aircraft into the strait to escort tankers, eliminating the need for an invasion.
That’s certainly true about the export operations on Kharg. We’re not going to seize Iran’s oil output along with Kharg, at least not in the short term. The Iranians will turn off the pumps on the mainland side. However, the IRGC can’t afford to stop oil sales for very long, and they can’t afford to blow it up either. We may not need Kharg for a strictly operational platform for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but it is a strategic asset with value far beyond the military operation. American control of Kharg would strangle the regime in short order, and it would make a very valuable bargaining chip for negotiations around a capitulation. It might be the only asset for which a remnant regime would turn over all of its enriched uranium, as just one example of how Kharg might help unlock our real long-term objectives in this war without putting boots on the ground in mainland Iran.
This war wasn’t about the Strait of Hormuz. It was about removing the existential threats brewing in Iran for the last few decades. That’s what Trump should be mulling.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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