Arming Kurdish rebels as a substitute for US troops on the ground in Iran could spark a ‘catastrophic’ civil war that destabilises the nation for years to come, David Patrikarakos has warned the Daily Mail’s Deep Dive podcast.
Patrikarakos was joined by senior political correspondent Melina Shirazi, the daughter of Iranians who fled the country as Ayatollah Khomeini seized power in 1979, to analyse what comes next in the United States and Israel‘s joint military operation.
Now in its fifth day, the joint operation killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in its opening strikes on February 28. More than 1,000 people are now dead inside Iran, an Iranian naval frigate has been sunk and retaliatory strikes have hit targets across the Gulf region, including an explosion at the US Consulate in Dubai.
Responding to reports that President Donald Trump is considering arming Kurdish fighters to foment an uprising inside Iran, Patrikarakos urged the US to proceed with extreme caution.
The Kurds are an ethnic group spread across Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran. Based in the mountainous Kurdistan province, Iranian Kurdish fighters have a long history of armed resistance against the Islamic Republic.
Arming Kurdish rebels as a substitute for US troops on the ground in Iran could spark a ‘catastrophic’ civil war that destabilises the nation, David Patrikarakos has warned
Based in the mountainous Kurdistan province, Iranian Kurdish fighters have a long history of armed resistance against the Islamic Republic
‘I have been told the Kurds would be used as a group of armed volunteers – soldiers, to assist the Iranian people in freeing themselves’, Shirazi told the podcast.
‘They could seize local government buildings, police stations, IRGC bases. They could create liberation zones and put further pressure on Iran’s military forces.
‘If they fight the Iranians along the border, they could divert the military from the capital, which would be significant. The IRGC are already clearly aware of this – they have begun preemptive strikes on Kurdish bases in Iraq this week.
‘We are told Trump has had recent phone calls with Kurdish leaders. That might suggest he’s debating boots on the ground, just not our boots on the ground.’
Patrikarakos warned the plan risks splitting Iran along ethnic lines, which he described as a ‘total disaster’.
The US has a long history of working with Kurdish forces in both Iraq and Syria, including under Trump’s first administration.
‘Iran fracturing along ethnic lines is the last thing anybody wants’, he said. ‘This is the way to civil war, which might grind on and on.’
‘If Trump is going to arm them, my guess would be that it would come with some pretty stiff guarantees. Such as, you can fight the regime but it would have to be for a united Iran.
Patrikarakos added that if the military operation succeeds in permanently removing the Iranian regime, it would be a ‘huge win’ for the United States
He cautioned however that Washington’s main adversaries, Russia and China, are likely pleased to see the might of the US military distracted in Iran
‘I suspect the Kurds are probably not strong enough to turn around and say, get lost.’
Patrikarakos added that if the military operation succeeds in permanently removing the Iranian regime, it would be a ‘huge win’ for the United States.
He cautioned however that Washington’s main adversaries, Russia and China, are likely pleased to see the might of the US military distracted in Iran.
‘If I were Xi Jinping or Putin, I would be looking at this situation ambiguously’, Patrikarakos said.
‘On the one hand, America has proved that it will take out people that it deems to be a threat to its security. On the other, they are probably pleased to see the US getting bogged down in Iran.
‘It draws attention away from Putin… fewer Patriot missiles are going to Ukraine right now, I can assure everyone of that.
‘But if the United States and Israel are successful in ending the regime and getting something vaguely sane in Iran, that is a huge win. America is undoubtedly strengthened.’
Listen to the full Iran special episode of Deep Dive with David Patrikarakos and Melina Shirazi now, available wherever you get your podcasts.
