In Iran, Trump’s Luck Runs Out

You can’t say The American Conservative didn’t warn you.

We’ve done everything in our power to stop this dumb war against Iran short of flying a big white banner above our DC office building that says Don’t do it, Mr. President—disaster awaits! (And that’s only because the landlord won’t let us go out on the roof.)

Now that President Donald Trump has launched the dumb war and courted the disaster, we’re not about to start waving the white flag of political surrender. Our updated position: Get out fast, Mr. President—or the disaster will worsen!

Trump’s never been inclined to fixate on the potential downsides of bold action, nor to admit mistakes, nor even to see himself as subject, like the rest of us, to the caprice of nature’s God. That’s been especially true of Trump’s persona since his attempted assassination in July 2024, when a slight turn of the head meant an incoming bullet nicked his right ear rather than obliterating his skull. In his inaugural address, Trump declared that “I was saved by God to make America great again.”

In his second term, Trump’s cabinet members and enthusiastic supporters have tended to see him as a quasi-mystical being whose political and financial success bespeaks a preternatural ability to rack up victories and defeat enemies. The perception intensified following the successful military raid in Venezuela this January, when U.S. special forces abducted then-President Nicolas Maduro and made Trump look like a masterful commander-in-chief.

Trump himself still holds that perception, judging by a recent exchange on ABC News between host George Stephanopoulos and correspondent Jonathan Karl:

Stephanopoulos: The president promised to keep the United States out of foreign wars, but at this point, no modern president has ordered more military strikes against more countries than Donald Trump.

Karl: I have to tell you George, I spoke to the president, and he sounded to me like a president who feels invincible…. He told me, “Nobody could have done this but me, and you know that.” In fact, George, he suggested that the success in Venezuela made him less likely to accept concessions in Iran that were offered in the final round of talks.

Evidently, Trump still feels he’s got the Midas touch, that he’s a geopolitical savant who can eliminate the dastardly Islamic Republic and bring “freedom” to Iranians—his professed top priority in launching the war, according to the Washington Post. 

But the results of the combat operations thus far don’t inspire confidence that a golden age is dawning in the Middle East. Indeed, after the joint U.S.–Israeli attack began early Saturday, Tehran started blowing up the Middle East, hitting U.S. bases as well as civilian and commercial targets. In airports and city centers and energy markets, mayhem ensued.

That Iran wound up going Yosemite Sam on Arab countries was “the biggest surprise” of the war so far, Trump told CNN on Monday. Not really. As TAC has repeatedly highlighted for months, Iran credibly threatened to ignite a regional conflagration if the U.S. and Israel attacked again, to increase the costs of continued fighting.

Other not-really-surprising ramifications of the war have reached the American homeland. In Austin, Texas, a Senegalese-American gunman in clothes bearing an Iranian flag design and the words “Property of Allah” killed three and wounded over a dozen early Sunday. Permit me some leeway to speculate that this event was motivated by the new war. TAC warned in January that attacking Iran and killing its supreme leader could provoke terroristic events.

Tragically—and, again, predictably—six American service members have already been killed in action at the time of writing. Or rather, at least six have been killed. To my mind, comments by Trump to the New York Times on Sunday suggested he was aware that the true number was likely higher than the public tally at that time, which was three. “If you look at projections, they do projections, it, you know, it could be quite a bit higher than that,” Trump said.

Of course, decoding Trump’s statements has become more difficult since “Operation Epic Fury” began. In the same interview, Trump offered what the Times called “several seemingly contradictory visions” of a U.S. game plan for Iran’s political future: Perhaps Iran’s military would lay down their arms, or maybe the Iranian people would rise up and topple the government. Alternatively, the U.S. could implement the same template as in Venezuela, leaving the regime intact after taking out its top leader.

The Venezuela template seems irrelevant now. Trump revealed this weekend that the White House had been talking to some potential partners in Tehran, but that the strikes killed them inadvertently. “Some of the people we were dealing with are gone, because that was a big—that was a big hit,” he told The Atlantic Sunday morning. “It’s not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead,” he told ABC News. And more big hits are coming. “The big wave hasn’t even happened,” Trump said Monday morning. “The big one is coming soon.”

Knocking the bejesus out of Iran is easy, and no one doubts the U.S. possesses enough air and sea power to escalate, but military action needs to serve a coherent political strategy—and so far, the administration hasn’t shown any signs of having formulated one. The devil-may-care attitude comes in part, I think, from a conviction that God is on America’s side.

“We ask God to protect all of our heroes in harm’s way, and we trust that, with his help, the men and women of the armed forces will prevail,” Trump said in a Saturday morning video address. “We have the greatest in the world, and they will prevail.” 

Quote-tweeting that video on X, the Fox News host and Israel-first blowhard Mark Levin wrote, “God bless our President and armed forces. And he will.”

Perhaps Trump and Levin could learn something from the Mideast Muslims they feel no apparent compunction about bombing into bloody smithereens: God’s will cannot be taken for granted. 

I myself hold somewhat complicated beliefs on this matter. I’ve never had trouble believing in God, but as for the idea that he loves us and cares about our affairs, well, that to me seems rather inconsistent with the facts. For example, this war kicked off with a missile strike on an all-girls elementary school in southern Iran. Around 200 souls were snuffed out. You can find images of tiny, blood-stained backpacks online. Am I to believe that God was too busy protecting Donald Trump and the State of Israel to save those little girls?

What I do believe in is Machiavelli. In The Prince, the Florentine political realist shares his teachings on Fortuna, the Roman goddess of fate and luck. To beguile Fortuna and partake in her delights, Machiavelli writes, a statesman must be bold and aggressive, yes, but also prudent and strategic and discerning. Trump, in launching his dumb Iran war, has evinced none of the latter qualities. As a Machiavellian, therefore, I can assure you Trump’s luck ends here.