During their climactic duel at the end of Star Wars, Obi-Wan Kenobi issues Darth Vader a prescient warning. ‘You can’t win, Darth. If you strike me down I will become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.’
Moments later he lowers his lightsaber, the Sith Lord pounces and the elderly Jedi disappears, taking his place among the shimmering immortals of The Force.
This weekend Keir Starmer is facing a similar dilemma. Should he strike down Andy Burnham, blocking him from standing in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election and turning him into Labour‘s newest martyr? Or should he step aside, let him run and take the risk the King of the North sweeps back into Westminster and seizes his throne?
It’s still not entirely clear which option the Prime Minister is leaning towards. But one thing is apparent. In the process of trying to grapple with their Burnham conundrum, Sir Keir and his allies have already begun to completely lose their marbles.
In the hours after the confirmation Andrew Gwynne was stepping down, clearing the path for Burnham’s return, Downing Street‘s reaction became increasingly hysterical. Friendly journalists were briefed the markets would be tipped into freefall by his candidacy. Others were told that the cost of running a new Manchester mayoral contest would be too prohibitive.
As the day wore on, various, and ever-more outlandish, ruses were floated for ensuring his exclusion from the contest. An all-woman shortlist could be imposed, one Starmer supporter declared. Even though they are never utilised by Labour in by-elections. A second ally popped up to claim an all-BAME shortlist would be drawn up. Despite the fact such a list would be illegal under equalities legislation.
By the evening, Starmer’s ‘friends’ had dropped the pretence that there was any objective rationale to their prospective gerrymandering. ‘One way or another we will block Andy Burnham,’ they baldly announced.
Keir Starmer faces a dilemma. Should he strike down Andy Burnham, or should he step aside, let him run and take the risk the King of the North sweeps back into Westminster and seizes his throne? writes Dan Hodges
One Burnham backer told me: ‘They would be insane to block him. It would cause chaos. Starmer wouldn’t be able to survive it.’
Whether they will, or even have the ability to, is another matter. Speaking to ministers and MPs over the past 48 hours, it’s clear the mood within the party is shifting firmly in favour of allowing Burnham to run.
As one Burnham backer told me: ‘They would be insane to block him. It would cause chaos. Starmer wouldn’t be able to survive it.’
One minister who is supportive of the Prime Minister agreed. ‘I actually think it would be a mistake to block him. It just boosts Burnham and the rebels. And it doesn’t solve any of the fundamental issues.’
Some Burnham supporters have floated a compromise, in the form of a ‘loyalty oath’. As one told me: ‘It would be reasonable to expect a by-election candidate to make clear their public support for the party leader. And in any case, Andy’s not going to win a by-election on Friday then launch a leadership challenge the following Monday. So it would actually buy Keir a bit more time to see if he can stabilise things.’
But compromise is not the prevailing mood in Downing Street. Inside the No 10 bunker, the feeling is one of kill or be killed. ‘They basically want Andy’s head on a spike,’ one MP told me.
Which only goes to further underline the level of dysfunctionality currently attending the Prime Minister’s political operation. Battered by collapsing poll ratings, constant rebellions and a series of chaotic policy U-turns, Starmer’s advisers have lost any ability to think rationally.
If they do block Burnham, there will be only one outcome. Labour will implode in an orgy of recrimination. Starmer will be humiliated, and taunted on a daily basis by his political rivals.
Defeat at the hands of Reformat the subsequent by-election would be likely. As would Starmer’s defenestration in the local elections that followed. At which point his premiership would be doomed anyway.
And that is just the internal perspective. Again, it needs to be reiterated that we are talking about a Prime Minister who won a landslide majority over 18 months ago. But the British people are now nothing but a strange, amorphous blob to him. At best an irrelevance, at worst a dangerous impediment to his increasingly desperate attempts to cling to power.
That is the only explanation for Downing Street’s current strategy of self-immolation. Just think about this for a moment. Inside No 10, grown men and women are actually saying to themselves: ‘Our public support has collapsed to 14 per cent. Reform are running riot. The Greens are surging. The Tories are back from the dead. We’re facing a potentially terminal by-election challenge.
‘I know: let’s publicly block one of the few candidates who is quite popular in the North and has a chance of actually holding that seat! And let’s say the reason we’re doing it is because we want to promote the diversity, equality and inclusion agenda!’
If Keir Starmer blocks Andy Burnham, he won’t just be sticking two fingers up at Red Wall Britain. He’ll be throwing it to the ground, kicking it in the goolies and spitting, ‘Greetings from north London, you ungrateful Northern oiks.’
This is the point the Starmer premiership has reached. There is no longer any meaningful agenda. Or policy programme. Or vision. Or coherent plan for turning the political tide.
The only strategy the Prime Minister and his aides apparently have left is to find ways of actively preventing the British people from voting for his opponents. The local elections. The Burnham selection. The pattern is becoming set.
This is now the Starmer way. Fix. Deceive. Stitch-up. Gerrymander. Do anything but let people actually pass judgment on him and his benighted leadership of the country.
And it’s a strategy that is destined to end only one way. Keir Starmer cannot run away from the electorate, his own MPs and his party activists for ever. At some point soon there will be a reckoning. And if he blocks Andy Burnham, then it is only a matter of time before Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner or another Labour Padawan steps up to take his place.
Darth Vader foolishly ignored Obi-Wan’s warning. And he paid the ultimate price. The Prime Minister is now backed into an identical corner. The Force is with Andy Burnham.
