Saturday’s announcement by Andy Burnham was the culmination of months of increasingly unsubtle manoeuvring by the Manchester Mayor.
But when the time came to make his move, he hesitated: did he have enough support among Labour MPs to justify the gamble of quitting the mayoralty, facing down the Prime Minister and trying to beat Nigel Farage?
From late on Friday evening into Saturday morning, Labour MPs were bombarded with calls by members of Team Burnham to assess the scale of his support in the Commons.
The decision had been made that if the number of MPs prepared to back a future leadership bid by him did not run into triple figures, it was not worth the risk.
On Saturday night, a Labour MP, who is a supporter of Mr Burnham, said: ‘The figure was well over 100, so we decided it was game on.’
An MP needs to win the support of a minimum of 81 Labour MPs to stand for the party leadership.
As The Mail on Sunday revealed last month, Mr Burnham struck a deal with Ms Rayner before Christmas, under which she was promised her old job back as Deputy Prime Minister if she lent her support to a victorious campaign.
Sources say Angela Rayner’s public backing on Friday was key to building a sense of momentum for Mr Burnham among the Parliamentary Party.
Saturday’s announcement by Andy Burnham was the culmination of months of increasingly unsubtle manoeuvring by the Manchester Mayor
First, Mr Burnham must overcome the apparent resolve of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies to stop him getting into the Commons
Mr Farage has boasted that Reform UK would emerge victorious in a by-election in Gorton and Denton
Informed sources also say that Ed Miliband – who on Saturday said how he hoped the Gorton and Denton Labour Party would have ‘the option’ of selecting Andy Burnham – would be Chancellor in a Burnham government.
But many perils lie ahead for Mr Burnham before he can consider a tilt at the leadership. First, he must overcome the apparent resolve of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies to stop him getting into the Commons.
Members of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) will meet to decide whether to block his candidacy – based on party rules that dictate that sitting Labour Mayors must get permission if they want to resign and stand in a parliamentary election.
And resign as Manchester Mayor Mr Burnham must do if he is to win the by-election, as the law states that Mayors who are also police and crime commissioners cannot be MPs.
The NEC, still majority-controlled by allies of the PM, will also review whether Labour should run the risk of a second by-election to replace Mr Burnham as Mayor amid fears it would let Reform capture the prized post.
Apart from the party’s own campaigning expenses, a Greater Manchester mayoral contest wouldn’t come cheap for the taxpayer. The bill for the last one left the Greater Manchester Combined Authority with a bill of around £4.7million.
If allowed to stand, there is also the little matter of Mr Burnham actually winning the by-election at a time of huge unpopularity for Labour generally. Reform is strong in the North-West – hence Mr Farage’s boast that his party would emerge victorious.
Private polling by Mr Burnham indicates that, if a by-election were held tomorrow, he would win: the ethnic make-up of the area is not Reform’s natural heartland.
Reform sources concede that point. But Mr Farage has vowed to ‘throw everything’ at the contest, and Westminster is littered with the bodies of political opponents who thought they had his measure.
Mancunian Zack Polanski is also said to be considering launching a campaign for the seat
Serial by-election challenger George Galloway of the Workers Party of Britain is set to run
Mr Burnham could also face a challenge from the Greens’ Zack Polanski, which would split the vote on the Left, as well as potentially from Left-wing serial by-election challenger George Galloway.
If Mr Burnham does win the seat, he will have to summon the will to challenge Sir Keir – despite having declared yesterday that he wants to back the Government, ‘not undermine it’.
Unless there is a party-wide decision to have a coronation for the ‘King of the North’, he will almost certainly face a challenge from Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, and also perhaps Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary.
Mr Burnham will also have to justify the duplicity he has employed during the past months of plotting.
When The Mail on Sunday revealed last month that he was planning to cut a deal to stand in Andrew Gwynne’s seat, he wrote on social media: ‘Quite a lot of rubbish in the papers today. Reminds me why I left Westminster in the first place!’
As a non-denial denial, it was a classic of its time. Mr Burnham did not actually say he was referring to our story. What he very conspicuously failed to write was: ‘I am not hoping to return to the Commons and then topple the Prime Minister.’ Because he was.
Labour MPs who claim to know Mr Burnham’s thinking expect him to make initial protestations of loyalty, followed – if he makes it into the Commons – by a leadership challenge in July. That would be in the wake of expected disastrous local election results that he could blame on Sir Keir.
Will Streeting and Mahmood now make a leadership move?
Although Andy Burnham has effectively fired the starting gun for the Labour leadership race, this will be far from a coronation.
It’s no secret that Wes Streeting would like to be PM. When asked in a 2018 video who would be doing the job in ten years’ time, he joked: ‘I think that will probably be me.’
But the Health Secretary may wish to move into Downing Street sooner than that. He has been accused of running a ‘shadow campaign’ to topple Sir Keir Starmer for months – with insiders believing he has had a leadership operation ‘ready to go’ since late last year.
It was allegedly the discovery of this which triggered the botched briefing from No 10 in November, outing Mr Streeting as a traitor.
But rather than stopping his schemes, the briefing served only to intensify speculation about a Streeting premiership.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is tipped for the top job after impressing MPs and the country since arriving at the Home Office
Health Secretary Wes Streeting has made no secret of his ambition to become Prime Minister
Shabana Mahmood is another Cabinet Minister tipped for the top job. The ‘no-nonsense’ Home Secretary has impressed MPs and the country since arriving at the Home Office.
While some candidates lie in wait, she has made no secret of her drive.
She has said, ‘You should not believe anyone in politics who says they are not ambitious about the top job, because they are basically lying to you’ – before insisting she is not plotting to topple Sir Keir.
However, there are suggestions she will row in behind Mr Streeting’s bid. In that respect, she is also the chairman of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee, which may stop Mr Burnham from standing as an MP.
And that, according to one Labour MP, would appeal to the Health Secretary no end: ‘The only candidate Wes doesn’t want to face is Andy.’
