AS war rages in Europe and the threat of a global conflict mounts everyday, five flashpoints could tip the world into a dangerous new era in 2026.
Acts of sabotage, aggressive naval exercises, and bold military displays had global superpowers teetering on all-out war last year.
Following 12 months packed with nuclear enrichment base strikes in the Middle East, massive military buildups near South America, and the revelation of North Korea’s largest ever warship – the coming year is shaping up to be the most pivotal of the decade, experts say.
From a series of tiny islands off the coast of Taiwan that could set the stage for WW3 to a naval chokepoint in Nato’s doorstep, tensions have been rising across the planet.
The Caribbean Sea
In the Western Hemisphere, one crucial body of water has already hosted mounting tensions, with US warships, fighter jets and marines swarming.
In the Caribbean Sea, Donald Trump has deployed the world’s biggest aircraft carrier, B-52 bombers and an array of military capabilities – all aimed at threatening Venezuelan despot Nicolas Maduro’s regime.
Trump has also carried out a spate of counternarcotic airstrikes – many in the Caribbean Sea – on boats allegedly smuggling Venezuelan drugs to the US.
Intelligence officer Philip Ingram said: “Donald Trump is building up one of the largest naval and military forces we’ve seen in the region for a long time.”
The US president’s motives include stemming the flow of Venezuelan migrants into his country, crippling Maduro’s corrupt regime, and ending the flow of lethal drugs onto American shores, Ingram said.
“The build-up there is something that you don’t do unless you’re going to use the military capability that Donald Trump is putting into the region.”
The Caribbean Sea is a region which “could flash up very quickly indeed”, Ingram added.
The Gulf of Finland
Sitting between Russia and two Nato states, this tiny chokepoint has been a gateway for Putin’s shadow fleet to chop up undersea cables and act as launchpads for drones to breach European airspace.
This tiny stretch of water has also seen dangerous fighter jet clashes play out in its skies.
And Ingram says it will play a significant role in allowing Putin to distract European allies from his increasingly barbaric war in Ukraine.
“With the Russian leader growing increasingly emboldened by Europe’s muted response to his recent airspace incursions, he all but certain to step up sabotage efforts across the continent in the coming year.
“One way in which he might continue to meddle with Nato is through his shadow fleet, primarily operating out of the Gulf of Finland.”
These shady vessels also help Russia dodge hefty European sanctions – keeping Putin’s oil economy afloat by sneaking out barrels to the highest bidders.
“Earlier this year, we saw Russian jets flying over the gulf as they veered into Nato airspace and sparked a hurried response from the defence alliance.”
But if Putin is to continue on his sabre-rattling path, the Gulf of Finland certainly has the potential to explode into conflict, Ingram says.
The Kinmen Islands
Over in Asia, one tiny set of islands could prove consequential as tensions between China and Taiwan continue to rise year on year.
The Kinmen Islands, which sit mere miles off the Chinese coast and have a population of just under 150,000, could be invaded by Beijing, Ingram speculated.
The People’s Liberation Army could use the tiny set of islands to test Taiwan’s nerve and see how they react.
“This is something that China could easily take with a very small military capability – and then sit and watch what the international community does,” Ingram said.
Beijing could use the nearby set of islands to limit test not only Taiwan, but also Donald Trump.
Questioning whether the US president would go to war over the territory, Ingram asked: “Would Donald Trump go to war with China to protect what is a tiny, almost valueless lump of rock just off the Chinese shore?
“Would Taiwan go to war with China over the same?”
The expert added: “China may use that as a test bed in 2026 to see what the resolve of the international community looks like.
“China sees it [Taiwan] as an errant part of China, and wants to see it back again.”
Taiwan insists it is an independent nation after splitting from mainland China amid civil war in 1949.
But Xi Jinping claims Taiwan remains a part of China’s territory – and has not ruled out the use of force to take the island and place it under Beijing’s control.
The Strait of Hormuz
Moving over to the Middle East, Ingram picked out one narrow waterway which could plunge the West’s energy supply into disarray if blocked off.
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial chokepoint for the global oil market.
Over 20 million barrels are shipped through the strait per – accounting for more than one fifth of all oil consumption on Earth.
Citing Israel’s conflict with Iran this summer, Ingram said there could be potential for the Ayatollah’s hermit kingdom to get revenge in 2026.
“Iran has remained relatively quiet, but if it felt that it wanted to bite back at the West with a large percentage of the West’s oil and gas going through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran could decide to close it,” he said.
Although the Iranian regime has threatened to close the small crossing – which is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point – several times, it has never followed through.
Shutting it down could send global prices skyrocketing, impacting some of the world’s biggest economies.
It might also spark an international military reaction – with countries drawn together to destroy a blockade.
China, India and Japan are among some of the top importers of crude oil going through the tiny flashpoint.
Fears mounted in June following Operation Midnight Hammer that Tehran would close the strait.
Ingram said: “If tensions increase inside Iran, whether they be civil tensions against the government, whether they be tensions coming in from Israel or from the US or elsewhere, Iran could try to lash out like a cornered rat.
“Biting back by closing the strait of Hormuz – the impact on the global economy would be significant.”
Seoul
Although peace between North and South Korea has held for decades – tyrant Kim Jong-un remains an unpredictable dictator.
The North Korean despot officially abandoned plans to reunify the peninsula last year – but still sees the South as their “principal enemy”.
Feeling more confident than ever following a string of diplomatic wins in 2025, Kim may decide next year is the time to strike, Ingram said.
“Kim Jong-un, the despot leader of North Korea, is feeling emboldened in his relationship with Russia, supplying over 70 per cent of Russia’s ammunition for its war in Ukraine,” he said.
“Kim has also developed capabilities and been brought centre stage at Xi and Putin’s parades.”
The two Koreas have been divided ever since a ceasefire was agreed to end the Korean War in 1953.
Last month, Donald Trump hoped to rekindle relations with Kim Jong-un, following the pair’s historic summit during the US president’s first term.
But after repeated invitations to bring Kim to the table, the tyrant remained radio silent.
With an arsenal of nukes, a fleet of naval destroyers and the fourth biggest army in the world – Kim could decide to reshape the globe at the drop of a hat.
Ingram said: “We’ve got a despot with nuclear weapons – his opening salvo could be the firing of a nuclear weapon at Seoul.
“This is a very real possibility in 2026.”
