One of the first things you learn when reading military history is to never overextend beyond your supply lines. Logistics set the limits of success. That’s why, as Omar Bradley put it: “Amateurs talk strategy; professionals talk logistics.”
Such lessons have been handed out to both Napoleon and Hitler in Russia and Rommel in North Africa, all of whom ran beyond their materiel, whilst the Americans in both Vietnam and Afghanistan extended beyond the supply of political support at home.
Like most military lessons, this one translates seamlessly to politics — after all, war is politics by other means. It’s a warning Nigel Farage would do well to heed in the year ahead.
Reform’s surge to 30 per cent was as impressive as the rapid advances Rommel made in the desert against my great uncle (I understand there were also other soldiers present). But, like Rommel, it may find that rapid gains count for little without the support to sustain them.
Reform, as an emergent — or insurgent — political party, is not a big operation. Its resources, staff, and reach cannot yet match those of established parties. That means its efforts are necessarily more limited, and every campaign, message, or policy initiative must be carefully prioritised. 2025 saw them focus on campaigning, securing headlines and building a public profile, rather than on the deeper organisational infrastructure or policy machinery that sustains long-term success. The approach paid dividends electorally, but it came at a cost. When policies were unveiled, they were often light on detail, exposing the limits of a movement still geared more towards insurgency than governance.
Next year, by contrast, is shaping up as a year of consolidation. For Reform, the task is to acquire the intellectual and organisational ballast required of a credible governing party, while simultaneously sustaining pressure on the Conservatives through a strong showing in May’s elections.
As Tali Fraser notes in the companion piece to this article, The Year Ahead for the Tories, elections across London, Wales, Scotland, and England’s councils represent “the trapdoor beneath Badenoch’s feet”. A senior Reform figure said the party now sees the forthcoming Welsh, Scottish and English local elections as an opportunity to consolidate its 2025 breakthrough, when it elected more councillors than any other party and secured outright control of twelve English councils. Those administrations, the source argued, have already begun to demonstrate Reform’s governing instincts through a focus on value for money for local residents.
“At the same time,” they told me, “we will continue building out our policy platform in preparation for the next general election, with our Preparing for Government Department developing a serious and radical agenda for office.” Following the end of Conference season, a sustained series of polls crowning them the presumptive new government – coupled with the arrival of Danny Kruger – saw Reform’s focus shift from spectacle to substance. This moment also coincided with the launch of the Centre for a Better Britain, a Reform-aligned but independent think tank.
Given the likely timing of the next general election, Reform figures believe they now have sufficient runway to address the party’s organisational and intellectual deficits. That assessment is shared by those involved in its emerging policy ecosystem; Christopher Howarth, who is working on new policy proposals on reforming government at Centre for a Better Britain, a new think tank aligned to but independent of Reform, told me: “Reform should use the time it has to work up its policies and plan for Government. It needs to identify people that can be Ministers, MPs and Lords. It needs to build what other parties already have, a party infrastructure in all corners of the country, expert advisors and relationships with a range of think tanks and campaign organisations to draw on. This work is starting and there is time, but it’s amazing how fast years can go by if you get beguiled by the here and now of 24hr media coverage.”
Kruger, the biggest defector from the Tories so far, has been put in charge of the Party’s preparations for government. His efforts so far have been largely conceptual, but the commonly accepted view is that detail is being deliberately held back so as not to give opponents time to plan how to obstruct them. Whether that strategy proves prudent or risky will depend on how quickly Reform can turn deliberately withheld detail into implementable policy under the pressure of imminent power.
Winning votes is one thing; converting them into durable power requires candidates, organisation, discipline and policy ready to deploy at speed
Much like Badenoch, much hinges on May’s results. The narrative that Reform have “peaked” has already established itself, not matter how limited an understanding of the political situation it offers. Should they fail to replicate the strong results of 2025, that narrative will become entrenched – which raises questions around Reform’s oft-repeated mantra that the Tories are “done”. There is potential for an upset, thanks to the patchy quality of local associations. One councillor I spoke to was concerned about their campaigning capacity; ’We need to lay the groundwork for elections, find good candidates and ensure they have enough to support to embed themselves. Some associations are basket cases, and just aren’t competent enough. The party needs to understand it’s job is to win elections. Not be a political talking shop.’
2026 will not merely test Reform’s popularity, but its capacity. Winning votes is one thing; converting them into durable power requires candidates, organisation, discipline and policy ready to deploy at speed. If Reform can demonstrate that it is building those supply lines now, the claim that the Tories are “done” will harden into reality. If not, the party risks discovering that in politics, as in war, the moment of greatest advance is often the point of greatest vulnerability.
