Like many Ukrainians, Victoria Kadantseva is leery of the recent whirlwind of diplomatic activity – happening in foreign places from Miami and Geneva to Moscow and even Alaska – that she believes could be existential for Ukraine’s future.
“We are not expecting a good outcome when they are discussing our country’s future in all these places like it is theirs to decide,” says Ms. Kadantseva, the executive assistant in the Kyiv office of an international consumer products company.
“We don’t want to give up our territory and lose our sovereignty,” she adds, “but it seems that is what they talk about.”
Why We Wrote This
As U.S. and Russian negotiators met, and European leaders scrambled to make a peace deal palatable to Kyiv, Ukrainians were, uncomfortably, bystanders to talks over their future. But their view is firm: Yes to compromise, No to capitulation.
Since August, when U.S. President Donald Trump met in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainians have been observing – mostly with trepidation – the ups and downs of Mr. Trump’s renewed push to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Just in the past few weeks, a 28-point plan that seemed written by Moscow gave way to a 19-point plan more favorable to Ukrainian interests.
Most recently, Ukrainians watched warily as Mr. Trump’s peace envoys, businessman Steve Witcoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, met in Moscow Tuesday with Mr. Putin. But the Russian leader reportedly stuck to his maximalist positions for ending the war.
Howard LaFranchi/The Christian Science Monitor
That allowed Ukrainians a certain sigh of relief – that there had been no grand accord between the American and Russian powers – even as it solidified the prospect of continued warfare through another cold winter and into the new year.
“People in Ukraine feel like we are on an endless rollercoaster, up and down, up and down, with sometimes very bad news coming out of all these talks about our country, and then sometimes something that seems a little more positive,” says Valerii Pekar, a Ukrainian futurist and an adjunct professor at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School. “But mostly people are afraid there will be some kind of agreement on Ukraine without Ukraine.”
“Russia is not ready”
Talks, this time between Americans and Ukrainians, were set to continue in Miami Thursday. But Mr. Pekar says he believes President Trump’s latest peace push won’t succeed because Mr. Putin is not ready to negotiate an end to the war.
“Negotiations require two sides, they need two to tango, but Russia is not ready,” he says. “Negotiations mean compromises,” he adds, “but Putin cannot compromise because he knows he would face very serious pressures from many sectors at home.”
President Trump employed the same expression Wednesday, sounding frustrated as he reviewed with White House reporters the lack of progress in the latest talks on ending the war.
“It does take two to tango,” Mr. Trump said. “I don’t know what the Kremlin is doing.”
For some Ukrainians, what Russia and specifically what Mr. Putin is doing is sticking to a position he has held since the full-scale war commenced in February 2022: that Ukraine as an independent nation simply does not exist.
“Ukraine has been fighting for its sovereignty for the last 500 years, and that clash with the empire that would erase us continues today,” says Dmytro Zolotukhin, the Ukrainian manager of a European humanitarian NGO in Kyiv.
“Now it is Putin who tells the Americans that there is no need to talk to Ukraine’s political leaders because Ukraine does not exist.”
Howard LaFranchi/The Christian Science Monitor
Given that position, Mr. Zolotukhin says he believes the war will continue into next year – perhaps until Mr. Putin feels the pressure of the steep economic toll the war is taking on Russia.
An important anniversary
That the latest peak in diplomatic activity on the war occurred this week felt ironic to some Ukrainians because Dec. 1 is a symbolic date in the country’s long fight for independence.
Thirty-four years ago this week, Ukrainians voted overwhelmingly for their independence in a national referendum. Independence had been declared by the Soviet parliament of the time on Aug. 24, 1991 – now considered the country’s Independence Day – but it was the Dec. 1 referendum that added popular legitimacy to the declaration.
The day took on additional importance in 2013, when the Revolution of Dignity began on Dec. 1, culminating in February 2014 in the removal of the pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, and the return of a 2004 pro-Western constitution.
“Dec. 1 is important for us for two reasons,” says Mr. Pekar. “First it’s the day in 1991 that Ukrainians voted massively for independence,” he says. Across the country about 90% of voters said “yes” to independence – with approval reaching nearly 84% in the industrial Donetsk region along the eastern border with Russia.
Donetsk is the region now largely occupied by Russia – and which Mr. Putin has said must be declared fully Russian as one condition for ending the war.
“But it is also the day, in 2014, that Ukrainians rose up and proclaimed that we would not go back or give up an independent Ukraine,” Mr. Pekar says. “It’s a reminder that independence is something we still have to fight for today.”
Kristina Kormilitsyna/Sputnik/Reuters
For some, Ukraine’s long history of wins and losses in the quest for independence from a hegemonic power helps explain why Ukrainians are so wary today of peace initiatives that seem to be carried out by foreign powers in their name. Too many security agreements have come and gone, too many foreign leaders have promised protection but then abandoned those commitments.
“Ukrainian sociologists call us a distrustful nation,” says Volodymyr Fesenko, who heads the Penta Group consulting firm in Kyiv. “We have historical reasons not to trust – and that is why we cannot accept ‘promises’ and ‘assurances’ but need the things we agree to with our partners to be concrete.”
Mr. Fesenko says a debilitating war has left Ukrainians with a deep sense of fatigue and a willingness to accept some compromise – but not on a core principle like national independence.
“People have come to the conclusion that we are going to have to make compromises, but they still insist we preserve the dignity of the sovereignty our soldiers have fought and died for,” he says.
“So as we watch these talks going on we are left with an unsettling ambiguity: We want the war to be over and we want the efforts to end it to succeed,” he says, “but we also refuse that it end not just with compromise but with a capitulation.”
Oleksandr Naselenko supported reporting for this story.
