Two months ago, euphoria washed over the people of both Israel and Gaza in celebration of a U.S.-brokered truce that halted two brutal years of war. But today, amid renewed sporadic fighting, the United States and Israel are at odds over how to implement the peace treaty’s next phase.
Critically, that phase will require Hamas to disarm, a move that the militant Islamic group, committed to armed struggle, is refusing to make.
In the face of that rebuff, Washington appears to favor delaying disarmament, or watering down its provisions, according to Israeli media reports, to focus instead on reconstructing the Gaza Strip, wide stretches of which were flattened by Israeli bombs and artillery during the war.
Why We Wrote This
Making peace between Israel and Hamas was never going to be easy, but the process appears to have stalled after only two months. Can it go forward if Hamas refuses to disarm?
For Israel, leaving Hamas in control of its weaponry is unthinkable, given the militant group’s commitment to the destruction of the state of Israel. It might even precipitate a return to full-scale war, some analysts warn.
U.S. officials do not want to openly clash with Israel, suggests Michael Koplow, an analyst at the Israel Policy Forum, a Washington-based think tank. But Washington can avoid a dispute only by avoiding reality, he argues.
“The only two parties who can disarm Hamas are the Israel Defense Forces, which would mean an end to the ceasefire, or a Palestinian force under the Palestinian Authority,” says Dr. Koplow. “But this is something Israel does not wish to discuss.”
In the Israeli view, “rebuilding Gaza [before Hamas is disarmed] means you are basically cementing Hamas in place,” he adds.
There is mounting concern in Israel among some government and former security officials that it is being dictated to instead of being a partner in directing what happens next.
Who gets the red carpet?
In the past two weeks, President Trump has offered red carpet welcomes to the new Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, once a U.S.-designated terrorist, and Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed Bin Salman. Israeli officials are growing jittery at the perception that Israel is beginning to be seen as a liability, the party that is seeking to extend wars – both in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon – that Mr. Trump is telling the world are over.
If Israel pursues its own interests too broadly and too bluntly, warned Hamas expert Michael Milstein in a recent column published by the daily Yediot Ahronot, “it risks losing relevance.” That would mean Israel “could lose its veto power over major decisions,” such as the makeup of a future Gaza government.
“Trump’s eagerness to salvage the deal may push Washington to accept compromises, even at Israel’s expense,” Mr. Milstein wrote.
Disarmament can be a long process, but Hamas’ refusal to commit to such a path makes everything else about the peace process even more complicated, argues Boaz Atzili, a professor of foreign policy and global security at American University in Washington.
“That’s because many of the powers that need to finance rebuilding in Gaza have said they don’t want to invest a penny in the Gaza Strip if it will all be ruined by another round [of war] in a couple of years,” he points out.
Whose yellow line?
Behind Washington’s apparent readiness to bypass Hamas’ disarmament, he explains, is a behind-the-scenes struggle between countries such as Qatar and Turkey, who want to maintain the ceasefire but want Hamas to be preserved in one form or another, and other regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, which would prefer to see Hamas destroyed.
At the same time, Arab and Muslim countries would be reluctant to contribute troops to the peacekeeping International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza if they risked facing off against armed Hamas militants.
The Trump administration’s plan for Gaza won important international support last week when a United Nations Security Council resolution authorized the creation of an ISF, as well as the concept of a transitional authority in Gaza to be overseen by Mr. Trump. The resolution also referred to a possible pathway toward Palestinian statehood – something the government of Benjamin Netanyahu fiercely opposes, citing it as a security risk to Israel.
A wave of recent Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, responding to alleged Hamas breaches of the ceasefire, have killed some 300 people since Sept. 29, when the truce was sealed.
Meanwhile, Hamas accused Israel of moving the “yellow line,” which marks the limits of Israeli troop presence in the Gaza Strip, defined in the ceasefire agreement.
The agreement stipulates that until Israel withdraws all its forces from Gaza, they will occupy 53% of the territory, while Hamas controls 47%. Some Gazans, among the many who lost homes during the war, prefer to live in the Hamas-controlled area rather than under Israeli control.
Mediators, such as the Turkish and Qatari governments, have been seeking to strike a compromise with Hamas that would allow its forces to retain light defensive weapons while giving up heavy weaponry, such as missiles.
“The big question,” says Mr. Milstein, “is what Donald Trump says. If the White House is satisfied with this formula, it means we are in Phase 2 [of the ceasefire] and there will be very broad gaps between this compromise and what Netanyahu is demanding,” which is complete Hamas disarmament.
“But the one who decides if this is a ceasefire or a resumption of war is Donald Trump,” Mr. Milstein says.
