Americans across the United States are heading to the polls Tuesday – including in a few states with pivotal elections that many political observers see as an early referendum on the second Trump administration.
Tuesday’s elections come as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have been falling amid rising inflation, controversial deportation tactics, and the unpopular deployment of the National Guard to U.S. cities. At the same time, polls show the Democratic Party is historically unpopular, with more than two-thirds of Americans calling it “out of touch” in a recent Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos survey.
The country is also in the midst of a government shutdown that could soon become the longest in U.S. history. Flight delays are mounting as air traffic controllers work without pay, and federal food and nutrition benefits, known as SNAP, were halted over the weekend. (The Trump administration said Monday it will abide by a court order to partially fund the program using money set aside for emergencies.) A slight majority of Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown, although 42% think congressional Democrats are at fault.
Why We Wrote This
The 2025 election results will be closely watched for signs of growing or waning political support for Republicans and Democrats, and what those signs could mean for the 2026 midterms.
The administration is sending federal election monitors to polling sites in California and New Jersey at the request of Republicans there, who say there have been irregularities in past elections. Democrats say the move could have a chilling effect on voters and perpetuate mistrust in elections.
As Americans cast their votes, experts are watching a handful of key races to see what they might reveal about how President Trump’s policies are landing with voters, and whether Democrats are finding a winning opposition message.
Here’s a closer look at what to watch for in these major races.
Virginia
Democrat and former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger has consistently led Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the polls, sometimes by double digits. She has history on her side as she runs – in 11 out of the last 12 gubernatorial races in Virginia, the candidate whose party matches that of the president has been defeated.
Virginia is one of only two states that elect a governor in the year after a presidential election. Because of that – and because Virginia trends purple politically – it’s often seen as a political bellwether for the congressional midterm elections the following year.
That predictive method isn’t foolproof. Republican Glenn Youngkin won Virginia’s governorship in 2021, but Republicans performed worse than expected in the 2022 midterm elections.
Still, former Virginia Democratic Gov. L. Douglas Wilder says the state’s gubernatorial contest can shed light on how people are feeling about the state of the country.
“People are not voting … party,” says Mr. Wilder, now a distinguished professor at Virginia Commonwealth University. “They’re voting issues.”
One of those issues today is the cost of living, which Ms. Spanberger has leaned into on the campaign trail. In a state that’s home to more than 152,000 federal workers, the ongoing government shutdown has exacerbated challenges with affordability. These government workers are especially concentrated in northern Virginia suburbs where Democrats need big margins to win.
Ms. Earle-Sears has focused on cultural issues like Virginia schools’ bathroom and locker-room policies for transgender students. She has said she wants to continue many of Governor Youngkin’s economic policies.
For more, read the Monitor’s earlier coverage of the Virginia governor’s race.
New Jersey
Polling shows Democratic U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill is leading in a close race against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a three-time candidate for governor. Observers have pointed to similarities between Ms. Sherrill in New Jersey and Ms. Spanberger in Virginia – both are politically moderate women with backgrounds in national security.
As in Virginia, affordability is a top issue in the New Jersey race, particularly in terms of rising housing and electricity costs. Ms. Sherrill says she will declare a state of emergency upon taking office and freeze utility costs for a year, while Mr. Ciattarelli’s plans include capping property taxes and vetoing pet projects in the state budget. Ms. Sherrill has also sought to paint her Trump-endorsed opponent as being unwilling to stand up to the president.
“If Ciattarelli wins, it means that local New Jersey issues were prevalent because that’s how he’s running,” says Julia Sass Rubin, director of the public policy program at Rutgers-New Brunswick. If Ms. Sherrill wins, it would reflect “her success in making it a national race.”
New Jersey has historically been a blue state. But in the last presidential election, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris won there by less than 6 percentage points, a much closer margin than in previous presidential cycles.
“By all indications, it will be a fairly close race,” says Dr. Rubin.
The Monitor took a closer look at the New Jersey contest over the weekend.
New York
Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani appears to have a strong lead in the New York City mayoral race, beating Democrat and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by around 25 percentage points in a recent Emerson College poll, and Republican Curtis Sliwa by even more.
Mr. Mamdani’s campaign has already made waves. Political experts credited a savvy social media strategy with fueling his decisive primary victory – he won 56% of the vote in June – and elevating the race into national headlines.
First-time voters, drawn out by Mr. Mamdani’s army of volunteer door-knockers and his promises to improve affordability, were key to his primary win. The Queens assemblymember has campaigned on a number of progressive proposals, including free bus services, universal child care, and government-run grocery stores.
Politicians on the right have denounced his plans; some influential New York conservatives called on Mr. Sliwa to drop out of the race to boost Mr. Cuomo’s prospects. Mr. Sliwa, who is running on a public safety platform, has consistently polled below both Democratic candidates.
Mr. Cuomo has called Mr. Mamdani’s policies prohibitively expensive and unworkable, and says he could “kill New York City.”
Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who represents a district in Brooklyn, gave Mr. Mamdani his endorsement on Oct. 24, less than two weeks before the election, saying the candidate has “relentlessly focused on addressing the affordability crisis.” But other influential Democrats have held back – Mr. Jeffries’ Senate counterpart, Chuck Schumer, also of New York, has remained silent, and former U.S. President Bill Clinton endorsed Mr. Cuomo.
Mr. Mamdani has sought to reassure business leaders and other moderate constituencies. At the same time, his candidacy has garnered sweeping support among young New Yorkers, who praise his willingness to tackle long-standing challenges with across-the-board affordability.
Read the Monitor’s coverage of the New York race here.
California
Californians will be voting on whether to temporarily sideline their independent redistricting commission and redraw congressional districts to try to gain more Democratic seats in the 2026 midterm elections. The measure, called Proposition 50, is expected to pass. If it does, it could pave the way for California to cancel out five new Republican districts that Texas created earlier this year.
Typically, new districts are drawn every 10 years after a census. But this year, President Trump asked Texas lawmakers to redraw their state’s map, in an effort to create five more congressional seats for Republicans ahead of next year’s midterms. Texas’ governor signed the new map into law in August.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom responded by saying his state needed to “meet fire with fire” and proposed a new map for California. Unlike in Texas, the state’s Legislature cannot simply draw up a new plan. Voters will have to approve the move, sunsetting the redistricting commission until 2031.
Generally, U.S. voters don’t approve of gerrymandering, or partisan-based redistricting. But Mr. Trump’s efforts have caused many Democrats to feel they must retaliate in kind, although some voters still worry about the effects on democracy.
The Trump administration will be sending federal election monitors into California on Tuesday, as well as into one county in New Jersey. California Attorney General Rob Bonta said the state will deploy its own observers to watch the monitors.
The Obama, Biden, and Trump administrations have all sent election monitors to observe some state or local elections. Mr. Bonta has accused Mr. Trump of using the monitors to sow doubt about the fairness of California’s election.
For more, read the Monitor’s coverage of California’s Proposition 50 here.
