Wars often do not end on the battlefield but from a desire for peace in the hearts and minds of a people. In Russia, nearly four years into a faltering invasion of Ukraine, the people might soon determine how that war ends.
Only 27% of Russians support the war, down 13 percentage points from a year earlier, according to an August poll by the Levada Center, Russia’s only independent pollster. Meanwhile, the number of people saying the war had personally “affected them a lot” keeps rising. Gasoline prices, for example, are up nearly 10% this year, a result in part from recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. Up to 30% of Russians have had a relative, friend, or acquaintance killed in the war.
“People want to breathe freely, and not have to fear another military mobilization,” Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, told the Monitor’s Fred Weir.
For now, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears firmly in power to continue the conflict. Yet, on Wednesday, the United States took a critical step that could undercut Mr. Putin’s popularity by bringing the war closer to home. For the first time in his second term as president, Donald Trump put sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, which account for almost half of the country’s crude oil exports. Rosneft is the world’s second-biggest petroleum producer.
The sanctions are a direct hit on the Kremlin’s budget for the war. Mr. Trump also threatened financial penalties for both countries and businesses in places like China and India that now buy much of Russia’s oil. The U.S. move came as Britain and the European Union also imposed greater sanctions on Russia’s petroleum industry in recent days, including on ships that bypassed previous oil sanctions.
“I think it’s an important sign of strength that we are aligned here,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, “We waited for this. God bless, it will work.”
Whether the tougher sanctions drive Mr. Putin to make concessions at the negotiating table and end the war remains to be seen. But if more Russians experience higher prices and long lines at gas stations, and global demand for the country’s oil shrinks, a desire for peace among Russians might finally end what has become the most critical war of the 21st century.
