CALCULATING Iranian top brass will use Hamas’ deal with Israel to rearm the terror group, an ex-military intelligence agent warns.
Peace in the Middle East sits on a knife-edge as both sides – plus aiding proxies – lick their wounds from two years of war.
With the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Hezbollah’s military defeat in Lebanon and Hamas’ strength greatly diminished, Iran has largely been left out in the cold.
Its axis in the region has been left in tatters – but Tehran’s next moves in the coming months will prove crucial.
Raz Zimmt, who spent two decades in the IDF’s military intelligence, believes Iran‘s regime – which fashions itself as a puppetmaster of terror proxies in the region – will captilise on the opportunity to rebuild.
In a telling sign, Ali Akbar Velayati – an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei – signalled further warfare was inevitably on the cards.
He wrote on X: “The start of the ceasefire in Gaza may be the behind-the-scenes end of the ceasefire somewhere else.”
Veteran Iran-watcher Dr Zimmt also warned Iran has not and will not give up on its ultimate goal of destroying Israel – and is more determined than ever to create a nuclear weapon.
He believes, however, that Tehran will be “supportive” of the war with Israel ending now – as it means the terror group has survived with “some of its capabilties”.
Donald Trump‘s 20-point peace plan kicked in on Monday – despite Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow that Israel would not stop until Hamas was obliterated.
Dr Zimmt says the fact Hamas was not defeated will be received well by the Ayatollah, who will now work to reassert Iran’s dominance.
He told The Sun: “There has been no indication that Iran has given up the idea of a so-called foward defence strategy, meaning to try and help its allies in the region – either financially or through weapons.
“I would say that from the Iranian point of view, this is certainly presented as a temporary weakness.
“And Iran certainly will look for any kind of opportunity in the future to rebuild its axis.”
Under Trump’s plan, Hamas must give up all of their weapons to squash Israel’s fears of the group restrengthening.
According to Israeli security sources, up to 23,000 Hamas fighters have been killed since the start of the war when there were estimated to be around 30,000.
There has been no official confirmation on the exact number killed – and some conflict monitors put the number lower at less than 9,000.
Much of Hamas’ senior leadership such as October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar were among those killed.
But experts have previously noted that Hamas may have recruited more fighters in the last two years.
Infrastructure and weapons used by the terrorists have also been widely destroyed, and the IDF has taken control of large chunks of Gaza.
Trump’s threat to Hamas
by Nick Parker, Foreign Editor
DONALD Trump has warned Hamas that he will respond “violently” if they refuse to disarm themselves as part of the Gaza peace deal.
Israel’s truce with the terror group has been rocked by multiple setbacks after Trump celebrated ending the war in the Middle East.
Under the terms of Trump’s 20-point plan, Hamas must give up all weapons.
Tel Aviv has made it clear that Hamas must never be allowed to regroup and plan another October 7 style terror attack again.
Officials within Hamas over recent days have said they have no plans of disarming regardless of Trump or Israel’s pleas.
Responding to these remarks in the White House, an irate Trump warned: “If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them.
“And it will happen quickly and perhaps violently.”
He added that he received word from Hamas that it would disarm after his team spoke to the group.
Dr Zimmt said Hamas has not been dismantled, however, in a stark warning to the region and Western nations celebrating peace.
He added: “Israel should be aware of the fact that Hamas is down but not out.
“And Iran is already trying to reconstitute its strategic capabilities and has not given up the idea of the destruction of the state of Israel.
“So I think it should be considered by Israel as a temporary situation.”
It comes as Iran continues to reel from the mass destruction of its nuclear empire when the US and Israel unleashed an unprecedented blitz in June.
The 12-day bombing dealt a major blow to Khamenei’s top military brass – wiping out the commander in chief, deputy commander and boss of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
At least seven other generals were killed, as well as politician Ali Shamkhani – a close confidant of the Ayatollah – and two nuclear scientists.
Trump’s decisive action came after Iran failed to thrash out a deal to curb its nuke programme.
But Dr Zimmt warned it is paramount that an agreement is reached as Iran will be hellbent to have nuclear weapons at the ready.
He said: “The motivation is even stronger than it used to be, because it’s very clear there are several voices in Iran saying that due to the weakness of the axis and due to the damage caused to its missiles, the only way to achieve an ultimate deterrence against Israel is to break out weapons.
“My concern is that if nothing happens, from the diplomatic point of view and if there is no understanding or certainly not a new agreement between Iran and the US, there is a risk a miscalculation between Israel.
“There is also risk of an Iranian decision to do something with the nuclear issue that could trigger warfare between Israel and Iran, or to take some provocative actions, perhaps in the Persian Gulf or against US allies in the region – which again might escalate very quickly.
“So I think what we see today is still that the Iranians are recalculated and reassessing what to do.
“But at some point, they might take decisions which could be quite risky, but also might result in a new round of warfare.”
