When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits the White House Friday, he’ll be greeted by a U.S. president who just weeks ago appeared to have washed his hands of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“I wish both Countries well,” Donald Trump said in a social media post on Sept. 23, signaling what was widely interpreted as the end of his efforts to bring peace to a conflict he once famously claimed he could solve in 24 hours.
But now, with the heady victory of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal under his belt, Mr. Trump has put ending the war in Ukraine back in his sights – though with a twist.
Why We Wrote This
President Donald Trump appears to have drawn a lesson from the Hamas-Israel ceasefire deal: To achieve peace, you have to lean heavily on the combatants. Now, he’s applying that approach to Russia, to force an end to its invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts say the president believes his tough-guy stance and the exercise of American power played a crucial role in bringing both Hamas and Israel to “yes” on a deal. Now, he is considering a similar approach to end the war in Ukraine.
If a “peace through war” approach worked in the Middle East – exhibit A being how U.S. participation in Israel’s 12-day war against Iran convinced a weakened Iranian state to pressure its client Hamas to go with a deal – why not try it in the Ukraine war?
Over the past week, Mr. Trump has been signaling that he might change course and provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles that would put Moscow in the Ukrainian military’s range. “I might say [to Russia], look, if the war is not going to be settled, I’m going to sell [the Ukrainians] Tomahawks,” he told reporters traveling with him to the Middle East on Sunday.
Leaks out of the administration over recent days suggest the White House is considering other offensive (and defensive) systems for Ukraine, as well as the technical assistance for targeting with any new weapons. And publicly, administration officials including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have adopted increasingly aggressive rhetoric toward Russia, especially since the president’s triumphal Middle East trip.
Everything from Mr. Zelenskyy’s visit to floating the Tomahawks and the administration’s new aggressive tone is messaging to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Mr. Trump wants an end to the war, some analysts say – and that he is now willing to resort to force to achieve it.
“The Tomahawks are more of a political message than a military message,” says Mark Montgomery, a retired admiral and now senior director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation in Washington. ”But what’s on the table is a ‘Tomahawks and …’ that could get to Ukraine some offensive weapons that could start making a difference on the ground now.”
He says that in the mix of what’s being discussed are low-cost, laser-guided rockets that could be mounted on F-16s and used to take out Russian attack drones wreaking havoc on Ukraine.
Moreover, he adds that Mr. Zelenskyy’s visit alone is a message to Mr. Putin. “For Zelenskyy, this is the third visit in a year,” he notes, “that’s Netanyahu-like.”
Still, Admiral Montgomery says he is doubtful that what he describes as an effort to “smoke out” Mr. Putin will work – and others agree.
“None of this is going to change the calculus,” says Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank promoting restraint in U.S. foreign policy. “Putin has shown that he has been willing to bear these costs,” she adds, “and I see no reason to think that has changed.”
Underpinning the argument that the talk of Tomahawks is largely political messaging is the reality that even if Mr. Trump announces Friday that he’s selling the long-range missiles to Ukraine, the weapons system couldn’t be operational in the war for months at least.
Anatolii Stepanov/Reuters
The Tomahawks would require a launching system that isn’t off-the-shelf available, experts note.
“As it is right now, there’s no way for Ukraine to launch the Tomahawks even if we provided them,” Dr. Kavanagh says, “so, really, it’s nothing that would be helpful today.”
On the other hand, she says just a decision to provide Tomahawks could be escalatory and place the United States on a slippery slope toward deeper involvement in the war. She notes that Russia is already rattling the nuclear saber, pointing out that Tomahawks are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Others contend that providing Tomahawks capable of striking Moscow would level the playing field with an aggressor who regularly pummels Kyiv and other cities deep inside Ukraine.
For some foreign policy analysts, a key takeaway of this moment is what it says about President Trump’s evolution in his thinking on the war in Ukraine – and on the parties to it.
In August, Mr. Trump appeared to have shifted to Mr. Putin’s perspective on the war as he received the Russian leader at a summit in Alaska. Subsequently, Mr. Zelenskyy visited the White House flanked by European leaders who feared Mr. Trump could browbeat their Ukrainian colleague – as he had during a February White House visit – from a pro-Russia stance.
But more recently, the president has expressed his disappointment in Mr. Putin, acknowledging in comments to French President Emmanuel Macron that “unfortunately that relationship [with Mr. Putin] didn’t mean anything.”
Suggesting he hasn’t given up yet on his relationship, Mr. Trump reported on Thursday that he spoke at length with the Russian president and the two leaders agreed to meet in the future in Budapest, Hungary.
In the meantime, Mr. Zelenskyy has worked to stay in Mr. Trump’s good graces and to convince the president that a strong and deepening relationship with Ukraine is not charity, but beneficial to the U.S., some analysts say.
“The Zelenskyy visiting the White House Friday no longer needs to come in desperation,” says Admiral Montgomery.
The admiral notes that a phalanx of Ukrainian officials preceded Mr. Zelenskyy’s visit with a kind of full-court press across Washington, touting everything from joint drone production to energy cooperation. “Zelenskyy is doing a good job of showing Trump the enduring value of Ukraine to the U.S. outside the wartime alliance,” Admiral Montogomery says.
