As high-level representatives to the Gaza peace negotiations sought a path to “yes” in talks in Egypt on Wednesday, a key turning point occurred when the parties agreed to split the emerging agreement into two phases.
With White House representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner signing on, a consensus formed to separate a confidence-building first phase from the rest of President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan.
Part of that first phase has already begun – a ceasefire in Gaza and a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces – with the highly anticipated release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners expected by the end of this long U.S. holiday weekend.
Why We Wrote This
To get the breakthrough allowing a Gaza ceasefire and the release of hostages, negotiators decoupled an emotional first phase of the Trump plan from a far more complex second. Much hard work remains to get Israelis and Palestinians to peace.
It was that splitting of the Gaza peace plan into two distinct phases that saved the talks from becoming mired in the minutiae of the many complex issues to be addressed in a comprehensive agreement ending the war in Gaza, White House officials said in a briefing with reporters on Thursday.
And it was the idea of a Phase 1 largely limited to the long-sought and high-emotion goals of a ceasefire and the release of all hostages that allowed Mr. Trump to run a victory lap on Wednesday and the streets of Israel and Gaza to flow with relief and jubilation.
“Too early to speak of peace”
Yet, as welcome and hopeful as the agreed Phase 1 is, many experts caution that it is not yet peace.
“It is too early to speak of peace, and there are still significant issues that will need to be addressed,” says Hugh Lovatt, a senior policy fellow and Middle East analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London.
Noting that there are potential stumbling blocks in both phases of the deal’s implementation, Mr. Lovatt cites “the real risk that Israel stalls its further redeployment while continuing to undermine a diplomatic pathway to a two-state solution.”
Egyptian Presidency Media Office/AP
Moreover, given the complexities of the issues to be addressed in the second phase of negotiations to secure a true peace, some experts question whether key players – including the United States – will have the focus and stamina to reach the final prize. They point to Israel’s resistance, especially, to some of the unsettled principles stated in the 20-point plan.
“A lot more has to happen to say this tragic episode is really closed,” says Stephen Walt, professor of international relations at the Harvard Kennedy School. “The question now is, do President Trump and his administration have the staying power to see this through to something beyond the first phase that actually resembles peace?”
Progress on the ground
In the meantime, however, the conclusion of Phase 1 is already being felt on the ground. A ceasefire went into effect on Friday, shortly after the Israeli government approved the deal late Thursday. As Israeli forces withdrew from population centers toward defensive positions on Gaza’s periphery, thousands of displaced Palestinians began walking back toward Gaza City and the northern part of the Strip.
That also started the clock on the release of the Israeli hostages, which is to take place within 72 hours of a ceasefire. That has sent a surge of joy across Israel, as Israelis anticipate the dramatic return Monday or perhaps even Sunday of their fellow countrymen, who have survived two years of gruesome captivity.
President Trump, whose name sits atop the 20-point plan, is expected in the region as of Monday morning: He will give a speech to the Israeli Knesset, then plans to meet with released hostages or their families. Mr. Trump has emerged as a hero of the hostage families and as Israelis’ most popular political leader for his high-pressure ability to free the hostages and achieve a ceasefire.
He will then travel to Egypt for a formal signing of the deal later Monday. New on the agenda, according to officials: a summit in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, either late Monday or early Tuesday. Its purpose: to gather regional and European leaders whose countries will be expected to shoulder much of the burden and cost of keeping the plan on track and ensuring that the deal doesn’t flame out after Phase 1.
Despite Mr. Trump’s declaration this week that the Phase 1 agreement represented the greatest day in history, the summit appears on one hand an acknowledgment that much work remains to be done.
But at the same time, the hastily assembled summit also reflects a leadership style from President Trump that analysts credit for getting the first phase off the ground.
“We saw in a week President Trump acting like a powerful particles accelerator, forcing everybody to move with hypersonic speed to reach an agreement that most of us assumed was unachievable,” says Nimrod Novik, an Israel fellow with the Israel Policy Forum. The New York-based think tank promotes Israel’s long-term security through a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Disarmament and other obstacles
Even before parties get to the end-stage questions of Gaza’s governance, rebuilding, and security through a ground force comprised of third-country units, critical issues early in Phase 2 could still stymie any progress on the rest of the plan.
One example is the chicken-and-egg question of Hamas’ disarmament and Israel’s committing to ending the conflict. Israel insists that Hamas must verifiably disarm, and its fighters be removed from Gaza, before it can retreat fully from Gaza and make a ceasefire permanent. But Hamas first wants guarantees that Israel won’t take advantage of its disarmament to resume the war.
Once the challenges of Phase 1 are worked out, “then the even harder work begins,” says Rachel Brandenburg, Israel Policy Forum’s Washington managing director.
What security perimeter will Israel require, how will humanitarian aid be ramped up, and – the 20-point plan’s point No. 19 – “What does a ‘credible pathway to a Palestinian state’ look like?” she asks. “The plan’s 20 points are really more like principles,” she says. “They’re going to be difficult to figure out in practice.”
Still, Mr. Novik notes that a tremendous amount of work was done over the two years of the war, not least by the Biden administration, to lay the groundwork for a Gaza day-after plan. It is not the stuff of “fantasy land” to anticipate that all the hard work done formulating a variety of Gaza peace plans should help prepare the road ahead and keep a peace process on track, he says.
“If all that [work] comes to fruition, Israel will have less incentive to resume the war,” Mr. Novik says, “and Hamas will have little option but to accept.”
