Two years on, some in the West are still tempted to silo October 7 as someone else’s far-away problem. That’s a grave mistake. Jihadist movements read that day as proof that surprise, simultaneity and spectacle can rattle a modern state, and analysts say that al-Qaeda is planning for follow-up attacks in the US and across Europe.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorists and armed militants from other terrorist groups launched a coordinated land-sea-and-air attack against Israel and murdered an estimated 1,200 people in Israel. Terrorists killed men, women, children, babies, and the elderly; raped and mutilated women and men; and took hostage 253 Israeli and foreign citizens. As of this week, 48 hostages are still held in Gaza, with about 20 believed to be alive.
The scale and choreography were staggering. Approximately 6,000 terrorists breached the border at 119 different spots. Additionally, around 1,000 terrorists launched thousands of rockets from Gaza into Israel.
Clearly, the October 7 attacks were well-planned. According to former CIA Targeting Officer and Senior Advisor to the US House of Representatives Select Committee on Benghazi, Sarah Adams, the date of the attack was reportedly chosen for maximum jihadist symbolism: October 7, 2001 marked the start of Operation Enduring Freedom, when the US began striking al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Israel was caught unprepared, enduring the most civilian casualties in the State’s history. And, apparently, terrorists think it was just the dress rehearsal.
So here’s what we know. The US National Counterterrorism Center circulated an unclassified brief to law-enforcement partners flagging al-Qaeda’s renewed calls to attack the US The Department of Homeland Security’s 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment also advises that Al-Qaeda is seeking multi-target attacks on the US Homeland. And Sarah Adams has been warning that a large-scale terrorist operation targeting the US (potentially timed for coordinated attacks across the US and Europe) has been underway since December 2021. The plot reportedly aims to position all attackers in the US by mid-December 2025 for coordinated strikes. The attack includes plans for aviation bombs, “Mumbai-style” urban sieges and multiple waves of small, synchronised strikes. She further asserts the effort involves mixed cells (al-Qaeda, ISIS elements, others) and that US authorities understate the scope.
The “Mumbai-style” attacks are a particularly important detail. In 2008, a Pakistani Islamist terror group, “swarmed” Mumbai with attacks for four days. These attacks paralyzed a megacity, saturated police, and maximised global media airtime by hitting hotels, a train station, a Jewish center, and a hospital. Jihadists still study that template for its media impact, exploitation of soft-target density and casualty maximisation.
According to Adams’ team’s intelligence, roughly 1,000 al-Qaeda and ISIS fighters have been trained for attacks on the US homeland and another 1,000 for coordinated strikes in Europe. Their aim is to replicate the tactics of October 7.
Some of these operatives reportedly underwent suicide-bomber training. If such attacks occur, they will seek to exploit what Americans almost never face at home: suicide bombers, gunmen who come to die, and cascading follow-up strikes timed to hit first responders.
In the West, we are largely unaccustomed to the barbarism of suicide bombers. We are equally unprepared for fighters who refuse to surrender. Terrorists who, as Adams warns, have come to die.
These terrorists also understand our reflex to rush in and rescue. That instinct, our greatest strength, is also our greatest vulnerability. The Department of Homeland Security has cautioned that future attacks may include secondary explosives or follow-on assaults timed to hit first responders and crowds after the initial blast.
So how do we protect ourselves? Plan for simultaneity. Local responders are built for single-scene incidents, not coordinated waves, and must be ready for multiple attacks at once. Harden soft targets. Transportation nodes, places of worship, shopping centers, hospitals, and entertainment venues need layered, visible deterrence, plus rehearsed medical-surge and family-reunification plans that minimize casualties and media spectacle.
October 7 was the worst mass killing of Jews since the Holocaust. But if we see it only as Israel’s day of infamy, we miss what jihadists learned from it: a grotesque proof-of-concept, that surprise, simultaneity, and spectacle can break a modern state’s composure and take thousands of lives. Our job is to deny them that spectacle.
