Malawi is holding a presidential election this week as one of Africa’s poorer countries grapples with an economic crisis and food and fuel shortages – and memories of a vote six years ago that was canceled and a redo ordered because of widespread irregularities.
Incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera, a former theology instructor and preacher, was the challenger in the 2019 election that was won by then-incumbent Peter Mutharika, only for it to be nullified by the country’s highest court.
The following year, Mr. Chakwera won a redo of the election.
This time, Mr. Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party is seeking a second term. Mr. Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party, is hoping to return to the leadership.
They two are seen as the main contenders in Tuesday’s election, which has a lineup of 17 presidential candidates, including another former president, Joyce Banda. Malawians will also elect lawmakers to Parliament and more than 500 local council members.
A change in the nation’s mood
Five years ago, Mr. Chakwera’s eventual victory came after months of street protests in his support. But things have changed after five hard years and this vote takes place amid economic turmoil and shaky trust in public institutions in the southern African nation of 21 million.
Inflation and the cost of living have risen dramatically, and there are critical shortages of fuel and sugar.
Cyclone Freddy in 2023 and an El Niño-inspired drought in 2024 destroyed crops and worsened food insecurity. A plane crash last year killed Vice President Saulos Chilima, a man seen as a leader in waiting.
“Malawians are weary,” said political analyst Boniface Dulani. “They want results, not just rhetoric. And this election is a mirror of that frustration.”
According to Mr. Dulani, Mr. Mutharika’s strong challenge to return to the presidency despite the flawed 2019 election was not a reflection of his popularity but rather disillusionment with Mr. Chakwera.
A new election law
The fraudulent 2019 vote prompted a change in Malawian electoral law, and this election will be decided by the 50%+1 format – meaning the winner needs to get more than 50% of the vote.
Analysts see a strong likelihood that no one will get a majority in the first round of voting, forcing a runoff, likely between Mr. Chakwera and Mr. Mutharika.
The most prominent issues for voters in a country often rated as among the least developed in the world is the cost of food and fertilizer.
Malawi is landlocked and relies heavily on agriculture, with more than 80% of the population living in rural areas and relying on small-scale farming. Its biggest export is tobacco.
Mr. Mutharika has campaigned on a return to “trusted leadership” and some agree.
Eliza Justin, an informal market trader, said things were better under the former president.
“Back then, we could afford fertiliser. Everyone was able to grow corn,” Ms. Justin said. “Now, prices are killing us. We need Mr. Mutharika back to save us.”
Mr. Mutharika has made few public appearances in the run-up and there are questions over his age – if elected, he would turn 90 when his term ends.
He has also selected the former head of the electoral body who oversaw the canceled 2019 vote as his running mate, sparking more allegations of collusion between Mr. Mutharika’s party and election officials in the last vote.
‘Economy in freefall’
Mr. Chakwera has been more visible during campaigning but “he’s burdened by an economy in freefall” and a feeling that he has not met expectations, said Mr. Dulani, the analyst.
Inflation has risen from around 8% in 2020 to 27% under Mr. Chakwera, pushing the country further into poverty.
The death of Mr. Chilima in a military plane crash last June was also preceded with reports of a fallout between Mr. Chakwera and the vice president, who was popular among young Malawians and seen as a great hope as a future president.
Still, some Chakwera supporters say a vote for Mr. Mutharika – whose brother was president from 2004-2012 – is a vote for the past.
“We’re looking forward, not backward,” said Aubrey Kachiwala, who runs a taxi business.
The Malawi Electoral Commission, which will oversee the elections on Tuesday, is poised for extra scrutiny following the chaos of 2019.
This story was reported by The Associated Press.
