In the aftermath of his summit with President Donald Trump in Alaska last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin framed the meeting as a positive exercise that moves his country “closer to making necessary decisions.”
Among the reasons the Kremlin should be pleased, Russian experts say, are Mr. Trump’s post-summit change of mind about the necessity of a full ceasefire as a precondition for negotiations, and acceptance of Mr. Putin’s long-standing insistence that the “root causes” of the conflict must be settled in principle before the fighting stops.
But Russian leadership has said little about the details of the deal Mr. Trump has claimed he is currently working on with Mr. Putin. In the week since the summit, Mr. Trump has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders at the White House – a gathering that only highlighted the chasm of differences that stands in the way of any workable peace settlement.
Why We Wrote This
After a week of summits around peace for Ukraine, Russia is holding firm to its demands. While the White House suggests that progress is being made on a deal, Russian observers say the Kremlin is content to wait Kyiv out.
It is widely reported in the West that a territorial settlement was discussed at the Alaska summit, in which Ukraine would cede the whole Donbas (it still occupies only about 30% of the Donetsk region), while Russia would agree to freeze its lines in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, both of which it claims to have annexed under the Russian constitution but has yet to fully occupy. But the Kremlin has not acknowledged that such a deal has been under discussion, and Russian media mentions it only with reference to reports published in Western newspapers.
“There are a huge number of rumors about the shape of the deal” under discussion, says Alexei Mukhin, who heads the Center for Political Information, an independent Moscow consultancy. “But only Trump, Putin, and a few people close to them know the truth.”
That leaves it dubious as to whether the gulf between warring Russia and Ukraine has really narrowed after the Alaskan summit. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv – which refuses to consider any land concessions – appear ready to cede on their terms, despite the White House’s claims of a deal in progress.
That might suit the Kremlin just fine, says Mr. Mukhin, as its silence is intended to keep its options open while waiting for Mr. Trump to convince Mr. Zelenskyy and his European backers to come on board.
“We understand that Trump is in a hurry. He has his reasons,” Mr. Mukhin says. “But Putin’s tactic is not to be in a hurry.”
Fighting to change Ukraine
Russia’s road map to peace is well-known, and has been officially spelled out in a memorandum handed to Ukrainian negotiators at the Istanbul peace talks this past June. The main points include Ukrainian neutrality, substantial demilitarization, and rights for Ukrainian Russian-speakers.
Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
One major sticking point is the question of security guarantees for a postwar Ukraine. The unwillingness of Western countries to provide solid assurances to Ukraine was, by many accounts, the reason a draft peace deal between Russia and Ukraine collapsed back in April 2022. While Mr. Putin has reportedly agreed to consider internationally backed security guarantees for Ukraine, the Russian idea of how they should be implemented is at sharp variance with ideas being discussed in Washington and in Brussels.
“Different models are under consideration. Russia thinks that a guarantee could be made by a combination of big countries, including the United States, France, Germany, Russia, and China,” says Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser.
That supposes a neutral and largely demilitarized Ukraine, which would become like a buffer zone between Russia and NATO. It would preclude any further NATO expansion to the east, but also leave Ukraine largely within Russia’s sphere of influence – though Russian analysts insist that Russian policy would allow it to keep its democratic system of governance and even join the European Union.
The version supported by Ukraine and its European backers would not include Russia among its security guarantors, and would likely feature European peacekeeping troops on the ground in Ukraine. The idea of Western forces in Ukraine, even if not under a NATO flag, is anathema to the Russians. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denounced the plan as “utopian thinking that leads nowhere,” in an angry statement on Wednesday.
“Russia is not fighting primarily for territory. We’re fighting to change the nature of the Ukrainian regime,” says Mr. Markov. “Without the key changes we are demanding, peace cannot happen.”
Russian pressure on Zelenskyy
Another question concerns Mr. Putin’s willingness to meet with Mr. Zelenskyy, whom he has described as an “illegitimate leader” whose democratic mandate ran out over a year ago, among other things. Russian analysts say Mr. Putin would probably prefer that Mr. Zelenskyy were replaced before a peace settlement is completed, and might be waiting for just that to happen.
Mr. Putin is a pragmatic politician, says Frants Klintsevich, a politician and head of an association of Afghan war veterans. “If Trump asks him, if he thinks it could be useful, he will meet with Zelenskyy.”
Indeed, Mr. Putin has not ruled out a meeting with the Ukrainian president, but has stipulated that it must have a “well-prepared” agenda.
“In an ideal world, that agenda would be Ukraine’s capitulation,” says Mr. Mukhin. “But these things are complicated. I think Putin genuinely respects Trump, and his efforts to find terms for peace, and so a lot of possibilities are open.”
The elephant in the room, Russian analysts say, is that Russian momentum on the battlefield is picking up. Nobody in Russia believes Ukraine has any viable path to victory, and, so, if a peace settlement isn’t reached now, Russian terms might be much harsher six months or a year down the road.
“Just about all observers now concede that the strategic initiative is with the Russians along the entire line of contact. It’s slow, gradual, but lately the pace of advance has been picking up,” says Igor Korotchenko, editor of the Moscow-based National Defense magazine, and a reserve army colonel. “It’s up to Zelenskyy and his backers to estimate the situation and make the necessary conclusions.”
