For the European leaders who rushed to the White House on Monday to head off any hasty capitulation by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to U.S. and Russian demands for reaching peace in Ukraine, the outcome was a tentative “mission accomplished.”
The business-like gathering of President Donald Trump with Mr. Zelenskyy and seven European leaders appeared to have little of the warmth and understanding on display at Mr. Trump’s Alaska summit last Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But neither did it descend into the rancor and bullying that marked Mr. Zelenskyy’s disastrous Oval Office visit in February.
Why We Wrote This
Accompanying Volodymyr Zelenskyy to a business-like gathering with President Donald Trump, seven European leaders showcased a united front that made Europe a party that henceforth can’t be easily ignored on the Ukraine issue.
What the extraordinary meeting did showcase was a united European front that put the Europeans firmly on the list of consequential players in the Ukraine issue, making them a party that henceforth can’t be ignored, some international security analysts say.
“As we’ve learned over the past few days, the plot of this movie is ever-evolving, but the standout scene from [Monday] is of a solidly united European position, backing Zelenskyy and asserting that Europe has a role to play in resolving this terrible war on its continent,” says Seth Jones, president of the defense and security department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“It looked for a time there that there was going to be a deal struck between the United States and Russia that reflected their [bilateral] interests,” he adds. “But the very united Europe we saw [on Monday] will make it very difficult for Putin and Trump to proceed on their own.”
European leaders mustered to organize Monday’s meeting after they were alarmed by Mr. Trump’s rapid shift last week from demanding a ceasefire in Ukraine – and threatening severe consequences if one wasn’t forthcoming – to supporting Russia’s preference for a quick peace deal.
Europeans make their case
At the White House, the leaders presented their cases for a different path forward to ending the war – including the need for a ceasefire first – and Mr. Trump took it all in and remained engaged.
The president told his guests he saw “a reasonable chance in ending the war” if he could organize a trilateral meeting between himself, Mr. Zelenskyy, and Mr. Putin – something he said he believed was possible “if everything works out well today.”
At one point in the meeting, Mr. Trump described the likelihood of such a “trilat” as “when, not if” – a quip that suggested a sense of progress about the day, since earlier he had said, “We may or may not have a trilat.”
As part of his efforts to keep talks toward resolving the war moving at a fast clip, President Trump said he would be calling Mr. Putin in the hours following his meetings with Mr. Zelenskyy and European officials. He also reportedly paused the discussions at one point to call the Russian president.
Still, the consensus among international security analysts is that the Ukraine war is not likely to be ended anytime soon.
“The vibe has changed” among the key players. “Everybody seems to be moving towards the same goal, which is peace,” says Harry Kazianis, president of the National Security Journal in Washington. “But while I do sense that we are moving towards some sort of agreement, nobody should think it’s happening tomorrow,” he adds. “It’s still a ways off.”
For Mr. Kazianis, one example of finding a path to an agreement was the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine. Leaders spoke of the need for binding security guarantees as part of any peace deal, and President Trump committed the United States to participating in security guarantees in some capacity.
Mr. Zelenskyy, who had been lambasted by the White House (and the right-wing press) for wearing his signature olive drab military clothing when he last visited the Oval Office in February, appeared to signal a willingness to compromise when he arrived on Monday dressed more formally – although from head toe in black.
At the public portion of the meeting, Mr. Trump remained largely inscrutable as French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made the case for Ukraine’s demand – and Mr. Trump’s prior position – that a ceasefire precede peace negotiations.
Mr. Macron, who has become particularly close to Mr. Zelenskyy over recent months, began his remarks by turning to President Trump and declaring that, “Everyone around this table wants peace.” Some observers saw that statement as a reference to Mr. Trump’s statement on social media Sunday placing the onus for peace on the Ukrainian leader, saying Mr. Zelenskyy could end the war with Russia quickly “if he wants to, or he can continue to fight.”
A Ukrainian and European list
Mr. Zelenskyy and his European counterparts had arrived in Washington with a list of demands for resolving Russia’s war in Ukraine that contrasts starkly with the contours of a deal Mr. Trump has indicated he agreed with when he met with Mr. Putin on Friday.
On the Ukrainian and European list: a ceasefire to precede any negotiation of complex issues such as territorial concessions; no relinquishing of Ukrainian territory that Russia does not already occupy; and ironclad security guarantees for Ukraine – beyond the mere verbal commitments of the past – robust enough to deter renewed Moscow aggressions down the road.
Several leaders, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, spoke of “NATO-like” security guarantees for Ukraine that would be modeled on an alliance provision that stipulates that an attack on any member is an attack on everyone.
Yet, while Mr. Kazianis says the contours of an agreement have begun to surface, he cautions that no one should expect a neat deal that resolves all of the war’s complex issues.
“At the end of the day we’re going to end up with a frozen conflict along the lines of Korea and the armistice reached there,” he says. “A lot of people aren’t going to like that. No one wants to see a 200-to-300-mile-long demilitarized zone in Europe. But the issues are too difficult to resolve all around.”
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
President Trump continues to say that the war can end in a matter of days – most recently he said Mr. Zelenskyy could end it in two days with the right decisions.
But for Dr. Jones, the “sheer difficulties” of the issues behind this war make it more likely that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is correct when he says that an end to the war is “still a long ways off.”
Defending European interests
The extraordinary delegation of European leaders, dubbed by the White House as “unprecedented” in recent memory, reflected the urgency for most European countries of avoiding any resolution of the war that would open the door to further Russian aggression.
The concern is that a Europe that is weak on Ukraine today could face more provocations from a revanchist Russia tomorrow – especially on former Soviet and Eastern Bloc territory that Mr. Putin considers part of Russia’s sphere of influence.
“If we are weak today with Russia, we prepare the wars of tomorrow,” Mr. Macron said in comments to reporters on Sunday. The reality, he added, was that Russia had “never” fulfilled “promises of non-aggression.”
While European leaders were indeed traveling to Washington to support Mr. Zelenskyy, the French leader said, an equal aim was “to defend European interests … at a very serious moment” for the continent’s future security.
“Any country in Europe that is worried about Putin’s idea of a Russian sphere of influence is going to be nervous about this war and about any discussion of territorial concessions as part of any deal to end it,” Dr. Jones says. “How Russia sees itself coming out of this war is going to remain a big concern across Europe.”
