As he flies back to Moscow, Vladimir Putin will be quietly beaming.
While the Alaska summit may have achieved little of substance, the Russian dictator accomplished his most important immediate aim, to break out of his diplomatic isolation and regain psychological influence over US President Donald Trump.
Trump wore a broad smile as if he was hosting an old friend, not a tyrant whose supporters regularly threaten nuclear armageddon against the West and who clearly sees the US – and the UK – as Russia’s historic enemies.
With further sanctions looming, Putin needed to re-engage with Trump, and it appears he’s done so successfully.
While little seems to have been agreed between the two leaders, Putin walks away with his military pounding Ukraine, and the threat of sanctions on ice.
The Russian president’s long-term aim is to force a humiliating peace on Kyiv, so that Ukraine’s social cohesion fractures.
Putin will then use non-military tactics to weaken the country further while he prepares for a new round of conflict against Ukraine or, potentially, the Baltic republics and the West.
As he flies back to Moscow , Vladimir Putin will be quietly beaming. While the Alaska summit may have achieved little of substance, the Russian dictator broke out of his diplomatic isolation and regained psychological influence over US President Donald Trump
Trump wore a broad smile as if he was hosting an old friend, not a tyrant whose supporters regularly threaten nuclear armageddon against the West and who clearly sees the US – and the UK – as Russia ’s historic enemies
In the Kremlin’s school of diplomacy, ceasefires and negotiations are devices to psychologically weaken and divide the enemy – not a way to peace.
China, meanwhile, continues to build up an almost colonial relationship over Russia, buying its energy at discount – and benefiting enormously from the war’s continuation.
President Volodymyr Zelensky cannot accept a peace that breaks Ukraine’s morale and leaves it unable to defend itself but he must not give Trump the opportunity to walk away, or worse, lift sanctions unilaterally.
The nations of Europe are, in the short term, big losers.
Poorly led, divided and unable to defend themselves let alone Ukraine, they have been all but sidelined.
Again, this suits Putin’s narrative. But perhaps history will show the biggest loser is Donald Trump.
His desire for peace is genuine, but he is in danger of being used by Putin to fulfil Russia’s agenda in Ukraine, and in so doing, undermining the cohesion and strength of the West and democracy’s undoubted moral power.
President Volodymyr Zelensky cannot accept a peace that breaks Ukraine’s morale and leaves it unable to defend itself but he must not give Trump the opportunity to walk away, or worse, lift sanctions unilaterally. The nations of Europe are, in the short term, big losers
Donald Trump’s desire for peace is genuine, but he is in danger of being used by Putin to fulfil Russia’s agenda in Ukraine, and in so doing, undermining the cohesion and strength of the West and democracy’s undoubted moral power
Tomorrow, Trump will meet Zelensky in Washington to outline a ‘peace’ plan that will almost certainly force major land concessions from the Ukrainians, something that Zelensky has said his country cannot do and which threatens to divide his nation. Pictured: Trump and Zelensky in February
Today, the ‘coalition of the willing’ – Germany, France and the UK – will meet by phone to discuss potential security guarantees should a deal be struck, reminding the US, perhaps pitifully, of its importance to any future negotiations.
Then, tomorrow, Trump will meet Zelensky in Washington to outline a ‘peace’ plan that will almost certainly force major land concessions from the Ukrainians, something that Zelensky has said his country cannot do and which threatens to divide his nation.
However, Moscow is under greater pressure than before – according to some economic forecasts,
Russia is running out of money. There may be a logic for a deal now that was absent before.
It’s likely that Putin’s demands are too great for Ukraine to stomach.
The world will find out tomorrow if there is a path to a deal, or if the conflict, the most bloody in Europe since the Second World War, will trundle on, swallowing thousands more lives as it goes.
Dr Bob Seely MBE is the author of The New Total War.
