The summit at which President Donald Trump is slated to host Vladimir Putin on a military base in Alaska on Friday is as unexpected as it is fraught with uncertainty.
It is not to be the sort of meeting that the Kremlin has insisted on for months. Moscow had wanted prior talks to settle the causes of the war before any ceasefire could be discussed.
Mr. Putin is ready to declare a full ceasefire, Russian experts say, but only after a territorial settlement has been agreed upon, giving Moscow control of the whole of the Donetsk region – even the parts its troops do not occupy.
Why We Wrote This
As Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares for his summit with President Donald Trump, his refusal to countenance a ceasefire in Ukraine before peace talks could pose a stumbling block to negotiations.
The Kremlin is also insisting on freezing the front lines in the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, probably permanently.
Other key Russian war objectives, such as guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO, substantial reductions of Ukrainian military capabilities, and rights for Ukrainian Russian-speakers would be dealt with in further negotiations.
Russian analysts sound confident that such a deal was agreed, at least in outline, during talks with Mr. Trump’s emissary, Steve Witkoff, at the Kremlin on Aug. 7.
“It’s very strange that it seems to be all about territory now,” whereas Russian territorial demands were never presented as the priority in the past, says Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a leading Moscow-based foreign policy journal.
But everything about this summit is a surprise, he says, even if the meeting is apparently the fruit of months of phone calls and contacts between two hard-to-read leaders – Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin.
Ceasefire presents first challenge
Indeed, Mr. Trump was said to be so frustrated by the Kremlin’s lack of interest in any peace process that he was planning a new round of stiff tariffs against Russia and its key trading partners. Instead, he announced the Alaska peace summit on terms that largely seemed to favor Mr. Putin.
“Who’s to say we’re not looking at a very unexpected agreement coming out of this Alaska meeting?” says Mr. Lukyanov. “I don’t think it’s doable, but who knows?”
Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, says he doubts a general peace agreement can be achieved anytime soon, but that keeping Mr. Trump engaged in the process is a key Russian goal.
“Putin will come prepared to discuss various options, including an ‘air truce’ that would suspend drone and missile attacks on each others’ cities, or perhaps ‘sectoral ceasefires,’” aimed at dialing back the war on the ground and creating conditions for further progress, he says.
One thing Russia will not accept, Russian experts agree, is a full and unconditional ceasefire before further talks, which is a key demand of Ukraine and its European backers.
“There is a strong consensus in the Russian expert community that any ceasefire would just freeze the lines, and no meaningful talks would follow,” says Dmitry Suslov, a foreign policy expert with the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. “It would be used by Ukraine to rearm and regroup, which is a path to more war, not peace.”
Russians confused by Mr. Trump
In the week since the summit was announced, serious obstacles have arisen.
Most importantly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made it clear that Kyiv will not cede any land to Russian occupiers, though he later softened this position slightly. He was strongly backed on this by key European leaders, who collectively urged Mr. Trump not to make any deals about Ukraine without Ukraine’s direct participation in the talks.
Subsequently, Mr. Trump began redefining expectations.
Initially, he had referred to the prospect of “territorial swaps,” which Moscow interpreted as a readiness to redraw the map of Ukraine.
Within days, he was backpedaling, saying he hoped only for “constructive conversations” that would “feel out” Mr. Putin’s intentions. If no deal looks possible, he said, he might just “walk away” from the Ukraine problem altogether.
Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters
Russian analysts say they are not surprised by Mr. Trump’s inconsistency. But the meeting is worth having anyway, they say, if it keeps the new U.S.-Russia dialogue alive.
“This meeting will be mainly about Ukraine and immediate problems,” Mr. Suslov says. “But the wider U.S.-Russia relationship should receive a much-needed boost. There are a lot of issues of concern to both countries that have languished in recent years, such as arms control, Arctic cooperation, counterterrorism, climate, and others that could benefit from some positive momentum.”
Broader Russian goals
Indeed, some Russian analysts say that the choice of Alaska as a summit venue hints at some of those bigger things. Some even argue that the moment for joint U.S.-Russian projects to develop the Arctic has arrived.
Recent polls suggest that public opinion in both Russia and Ukraine is now leaning heavily in favor of a negotiated peace, even one that falls short of full victory.
Most Russians now prefer a diplomatic peace settlement, says Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, Russia’s only independent pollster.
“Since early this year, we find that two-thirds of Russians want the conflict to end, the sooner the better,” he says. “They support the idea of peace negotiations and a cessation of hostilities, as long as we don’t have to return anything that’s already ours. People want to breathe freely, and not have to fear another military mobilization.”
Ukrainian public opinion has turned around, and also now favors a negotiated settlement, according to a Gallup poll released this month. The survey found that 69% of Ukrainians say they want a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, compared with 24% who support continuing to fight. At the same time, a June poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 48% opposed any territorial concessions to Russia, while 43% said giving up territory in exchange for peace, without de jure recognition, would be acceptable.
There is so much confusion and ambiguity surrounding Friday’s summit that few observers appear willing to venture any predictions about its outcome.
“We probably can’t expect any full-fledged deal to be sealed. And even if there was one, what reasons would we have to trust it?” says Mr. Lukyanov.
“The best hope is probably that Trump and Putin will begin a serious conversation, face-to-face, and pledge to continue it in the months to come. Any reliable peace agreement will take a lot of time and effort to reach.”
