This week was years, even decades in the making. Since the Middle East peace process began faltering and certainly since the escalation of the war in Gaza, Europe and the Arab world have each been waiting for the other to act.
Europe demanded that Arab states take a firmer line on reining in Palestinian militant groups. Arab states demanded that Europe recognize Palestinian statehood.
This week, both happened at once. The United Kingdom (along with Canada) joined France in plans to recognize a Palestinian state. Arab states and Turkey declared for the first time that Hamas would have no role in a future nation of Palestine.
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One of the major obstacles to a Palestinian state has been the lack of trust between Israel’s European supporters and the Palestinians’ backers in the Middle East. But now both are making the hard choices that could reopen a path to peace.
The collaboration was born of crisis. Images of widespread starvation in Gaza have appalled Europeans, strengthening the call for action. And all involved see this as perhaps the last chance to save the rapidly collapsing idea of a two-state solution, with Israel and a future Palestine living peacefully side by side.
Yet the achievement is larger than its strategic calculations. By acting with a new level of trust, a diverse coalition of nations did something significant – and difficult – together. It was a diplomatic “leap of faith” moment for both Arabs and Europeans.
“The timing coincided because both Arabs and Western states needed to cross their own lines, go out on a limb together,” said an Arab diplomatic source close to the talks. “By making their two limbs touch, they supported one another and prevented fallout.”
Both sides recognize that the two most important parties to any Middle East peace are openly hostile to these moves. Official statements from Israel and the United States have lambasted the recognition of Palestine as a reward for the Oct. 7, 2023, terror attack against Israel. They say it gives Hamas something it wants: its own state.
That is why the Arab states’ denunciation of Hamas was crucial.
“They are saying that recognition of Palestine is not going to be a reward for Hamas, because Hamas won’t be part of this at all,” says Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi researcher and fellow at the Gulf International Forum. “The Saudis and Arabs are being proactive with their diplomacy and are trying to eliminate every excuse that Israel or the Netanyahu government will reference to not move towards any peace process.”
Isolating the U.S. and Israel
Much of this week’s activity came at a United Nations meeting in New York. In the so-called “New York Declaration” released early Wednesday, 22 states in the Arab League and Turkey officially condemned Hamas’ attack on Israel, putting the suffering of Israeli civilians on equal footing with the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza. In an addendum, nine countries that currently do not recognize a Palestinian state said they are moving toward that goal. A key member of that list, Canada, announced plans to recognize a Palestinian state the same day.
In Europe, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Tuesday announced that the U.K. would recognize a Palestinian state in September unless Israel agreed to take key steps toward peace. France announced its decision last week.
Taken together, these moves intend to signal that the U.S. and Israel are increasingly alone, and that the rest of the world is willing to take bold new steps collaboratively to bring them back to the negotiating table.
Whether the U.S. and Israel will listen is an open question. But Europe is not naive to think it can play a key role in influencing thought. It was Europe that began building momentum toward the idea of a two-state solution in the 1980s – a decade before the Oslo Accords.
“This is Europe trying to take back some sense of ownership or action on the issue,” says Timo Stewart, an analyst at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. (Finland was one of the nine countries backing the move toward a Palestinian state.)
Yet most urgent is the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Though the situation in Gaza has been catastrophic for well over a year, new photos have led to a mounting sense of moral outrage in Europe. In explaining the U.K.’s recognition of a Palestinian state, officials repeatedly referenced the scenes of starvation.
“This is about the Palestinian people,” British Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander told the U.K.’s LBC radio. “It’s about those children that we see in Gaza who are starving to death.”
The pressure to act has become immense. “With the starvation in Gaza, as much as Israel is to blame, as much as Hamas is to blame, we are also complicit” as Europeans, says Yossi Mekelberg, an analyst at Chatham House, a security think tank in London.
Crossing their own lines
The images have only added to a mounting desperation. After Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, there was a sense in Europe that “it was mission accomplished,” and that “Israel would now wind down the war in Gaza,” says Burcu Özçelik, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a foreign policy think tank in London. “That has not happened.”
This week suggests Europe’s thinking is shifting and becoming open to steps it has long hesitated to take. If Israel stays on its current path, for example, embargoes and sanctions could come into play.
The history of many European states makes them sympathetic to Israel’s desire to ensure its territorial integrity and safety. So “there’s been an unwillingness to use any significant pressure on Israel,” says Dr. Stewart. “But one way you can see this is as taking baby steps toward that.”
The shift in Arab states, too, is considerable. Until recently, large segments of the Arab population saw Hamas as a key resistance movement. Now, their governments have isolated Hamas.
Says Dr. Alghashian: “This is actually something very significant, and it is changing at least the diplomatic landscape, if not the actual landscape on the ground.”
