For most dictators, news of an attempted coup d’etat is an unwelcome prospect. Autocrats prefer to be perceived as figures of strength; immune to insurrection and rebellion, loved by their people, with an unshakable grip on power. But there is one autocracy in which coup attempts are not only common, but beneficial to the regime. That dictator is Ibrahim Traoré, and in this respect, Traoré is not like other dictators.
Despite his image as a military strongman, Captain Ibrahim Traoré – Burkina Faso’s perpetually camouflaged president – has racked up more than his fair share of coup attempts since he himself seized power by force in September 2022. The first of these came only months into his tenure in December 2022, when his regime reported that a coup had been attempted by individuals from within the military. Rumours of the plot spread quickly online, and a number of Traoré’s supporters took to the streets of Ouagadougou — the nation’s capital — to protest in solidarity with the incumbent regime. Both the scale of the protests and the details of the coup itself remain unclear.
The second attempt came in September 2023, when the regime again claimed it had apprehended three soldiers plotting to overthrow the government. This time, the three soldiers were tried, found guilty and publicly named.
In January 2024, the regime claimed for the third time that it had thwarted a coup. This time a wide array of unspecified individuals was blamed, including serving and retired military officers, activists and civilians. The regime alleged that the perpetrators were receiving funding from abroad to carry out a “mutiny”.
Then, in September 2024 – in the wake of the Barsalogho massacre, in which Al-Qaeda-linked insurgents killed hundreds of civilians who had been forced to dig trenches by the army – the regime claimed that it had foiled a coup for a fourth time, blaming a variety of actors, including critics of the regime, ex-government officials, journalists, and western intelligence agencies. The regime’s security minister claimed — without providing evidence — that this massacre of civilians was the first stage of a three-stage coup plot.
Since taking power in September of 2022, the Traoré regime claims to have averted at least five coups
Finally, the most recent coup attempt was reported in April 2025, when the regime claimed to have foiled a “major plot” to remove Ibrahim Traore from power, which — according to the regime — was being directed from Côte d’Ivoire. Pro-regime protests ensued in the capital, in which “thousands” protested in defence of the regime.
Since taking power in September of 2022, the Traoré regime claims to have averted at least five coups. What is remarkable about these attempted coups — aside from their sheer frequency — is how eager the regime seems to report that they have happened. In every case, the original claim comes from the regime itself, never from the coup plotters, or independent media sources.
What is also striking is how conveniently they seem to coincide with periods of difficulty for the regime, in which a quashed coup would make for a convenient distraction. Burkina Faso is currently struggling to repel a Jihadist insurgent group called Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), which now controls large swathes of Burkina Faso’s territory.
Some analysts estimate as much as half of the country is now outside of government control, and despite coming to power on the promise to take control of the security situation, Traoré’s regime has failed to address the worsening security crisis. To make matters worse, there are credible reports not only of JNIM massacring civilians, but of the Burkinabe security forces doing so too.
It appears that whenever the regime commits or fails to prevent an atrocity, it reports a coup to divert attention from its inability to rectify the security crisis. The most recently reported coup attempt — in April 2025 — came very shortly after Human Rights Watch published substantive evidence that the regime’s soldiers had killed more than 130 civilians the previous month in the Boucle du Mouhoun region.
But the regime also appears to report coup attempts when it needs to bolster Traoré’s political narrative. After the 2024 Barsalogho massacre, the regime claimed the massacre was part of an elaborate plot to destabilise the regime, orchestrated by Western intelligence agencies, in which Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Ghana were also involved.
Traoré’s eagerness to blame the West — and countries aligned with the West — for the Barsalogho massacre is deliberate and strategic. When he came to power, Traoré capitalised on rising anti-Western sentiment in the region for political advantage. Many Africans feel disillusioned with the failure of their governments and Western partners to resolve the underlying problems that afflict many African nations: slow economic growth, corrupt government and unstable security.
Of course, this doesn’t mean the people of Burkina Faso want to live in an autocracy. Polling from Afrobarometer has shown that democracy is still the preferred method of government for most people in Burkina Faso. But Traoré has nevertheless harnessed the frustration some in his country feel towards the West — especially France — and has used it as a pretext on which to realign Burkina Faso on the international stage; to sever ties with the west in favour of partnership with the Russian Federation. Whenever anything bad happens in Burkina Faso, it’s therefore in Traoré’s political interest for it to be seen as the west’s fault, because it resonates with this narrative, and acts as a rallying cry for his supporters.
Of course, it’s worth remembering that the demonstrations in support of Traoré — which supposedly number in the hundreds or thousands — still remain small in comparison with the protests that swept the country in 2014, in which hundreds of thousands took to the streets to oust Blaise Compaoré.
Russia, meanwhile, appears to have spent a great deal of time and money attempting to influence public opinion in Burkina Faso. A 2023 report by the African Digital Democracy Observatory (ADDO) uncovered an elaborate and coordinated social media disinformation campaign targeting public opinion in Burkina Faso. The main objective of this campaign appears to have been to promote partnership with Russia, and to malign France.
All this raises an interesting question: is it possible that these attempted coups (or at least some of them) are not really coups at all, but an elaborate disinformation campaign? I put this question to Dr Daniel Eizenga, a Research Fellow at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. While Eizenga stressed that he had seen no direct evidence regarding the authenticity of the coup attempts, he agreed there was a distinct lack of evidence to corroborate the regime’s claims:
“It certainly wouldn’t be the first time an autocratic regime had conjured up a coup to suit its political agenda,” he said. “I don’t think there’s been a coup attempt in which a group of soldiers have made it plain that they’re trying to oust Traoré; we also haven’t seen any evidence of tactical manoeuvres against the Junta. One would assume that if there were a concerted effort to launch a coup then there would be more evidence to that effect.”
Then again, Burkina Faso is not exactly a nation in which coups are rare. The odds of Traoré facing a coup from within the ranks of his military — successful or otherwise — remain extremely high.
But if the regime is strategically reporting fake coup attempts, then perhaps this would be part of the genius. By announcing that a coup attempt has been foiled, the regime is exerting a “chilling effect” on individuals within the military who may be likely to carry out a coup, thereby reducing the chance of one actually happening.
There is no question that cracking down on dissent is one of Traoré’s priorities
“It definitely has a chilling effect,” said Eizenga. “By pre-emptively quashing coups or targeting dissenting military officers, the regime is also pre-emptively silencing people and discouraging them from speaking out. The message is clear: if you speak out against the Junta, you will face consequences.”
There is no question that cracking down on dissent is one of Traoré’s priorities. Press freedom in the country has suffered dramatically since he took office, and his regime is reportedly using forced conscription to abduct and silence journalists and newspaper editors. This tactic also appears to have been deployed against a variety of other civilians who’ve been critical of the regime, including judges, doctors and civil society activists.
While Traoré turns Burkina Faso into a police state, the security crisis shows little sign of improving. The jihadist insurgency marches on, and the humanitarian crisis worsens.
Regardless of whether the Traoré regime’s reports of attempted coups are real or not, it seems very probable that there will be more to come. The most likely way in which Traoré’s presidency will conclude remains some sort of coup d’etat, either administered by the military or by the people themselves. Eventually there might well be a real coup. After all, dictators who take power by force are often destined to find themselves removed by it too.
