The number of people claiming disability benefits is set to jump by more than a million before the next election following Labour‘s welfare climb-down.
An official forecast published alongside the Government’s benefits bill reveals that ministers believe the number of claims will soar by 40 per cent in the next four years.
It suggests the rise could even lead to the collapse of the benefits system, warning there is a real ‘risk the welfare state won’t be there for people who need it in future’ unless spending is brought under control.
The warning came as Kemi Badenoch called for a major clampdown on welfare spending.
Sir Keir Starmer was forced to abandon plans to trim the benefits bill by £5billion last week following a revolt by Labour MPs.
Proposals to tighten the eligibility criteria for Personal Independence Payment (PIP) will no longer take place.
But the forecast suggests that without reform, the number of PIP claimants will jump from 3million to 4.2million by 2029.
The cost of PIP payments is predicted to rise from £21.8billion to £34.1billion, while the overall bill for sickness and disability benefits will top £100billion.
Disabled people and their supporters gather outside the Houses of Parliament for a protest against cuts to welfare benefits as MPs debated and voted on the government’s Welfare Reform Bill at its second reading in London, United Kingdom on July 01, 2025
An official forecast published alongside the Government’s benefits bill revealed that ministers believe the number of welfare claims will soar by 40 per cent in the next four years
Sir Keir Starmer was forced to abandon plans to trim the benefits bill by £5billion last week
Tory work and pensions spokesman Helen Whately said: ‘The shocking cost of Labour’s screeching U-turn on welfare is once again on full display.
‘The Government’s own impact assessment says that without any action the cost of PIP to the public finances will reach over £34billion by the end of this decade – and now, after Keir Starmer’s total surrender to his own party, this increase is baked in.’
Yesterday Mrs Badenoch said recent events showed that Labour was ‘not serious’ about tackling the bloated benefits bill.
The Tory leader called for an immediate return to face-to-face assessments for new PIP claims, reversing the online system.
And she said that ‘low level’ mental health issues such as anxiety should not be automatically treated as ‘severe conditions’ which qualify people for sickness benefits.
Mrs Badenoch will use a speech this week to float the idea of halting disability benefits for foreign nationals.
Figures show that claims by households with at least one foreign national are running at nearly £1billion a month.
Rebel Labour MPs are now plotting to force further concessions this week by removing plans to cut £2billion from Universal Credit (UC) payments.
The warning came as Kemi Badenoch called for a major clampdown on welfare spending
Disabled people and their supporters gather outside the Houses of Parliament for a protest against cuts to welfare benefits as MPs debate and vote today on the government’s Welfare Reform Bill at its second reading in London, United Kingdom on July 01, 2025
hancellor Rachel Reeves hinted last week that the welfare U-turn would force her to hike taxes again in the autumn, saying there would be ‘a cost’
Richard Burgon said planned changes to UC’s health element payment would result in 750,000 vulnerable people losing £3,000 a year.
He said: ‘We should not balance the books on the backs of sick and disabled people.’
Chancellor Rachel Reeves hinted last week that the welfare U-turn would force her to hike taxes again in the autumn, saying there would be ‘a cost’.
This weekend Sir Keir said it was still ‘important we review the system’, pointing to a review of PIP which is being led by welfare minister Sir Stephen Timms.
But Sir Stephen has said the review will be ‘co-produced’ with disability campaigners, who bitterly opposed the Government’s efforts to cut the benefits bill.
