Nigel Farage is on course to become PM with his Reform UK party within ‘touching distance’ of forming a majority government, a new mega-poll has suggested.
The More In Common survey found, if a general election was held today, Reform would become the largest party in the House of Commons with 290 seats.
Although this is below the number of MPs needed for an outright majority, meaning a hung parliament, it was more than twice as many as any other party.
And the pollster said Reform is now ‘close to the level where they could command an outright majority’.
More In Common’s new MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) model, based on polling of more than 10,000 Britons, put Labour on 126 seats.
This is a loss of 285 seats from Sir Keir Starmer‘s general election landslide just a year ago, and leaves them with fewer than half as many seats as Reform.
The research put the Tories on 81 seats, down 40 seats from last year, with the Liberal Democrats on 73 seats (up one seat) and the SNP on 42 seats (up 33 seats).
Meanwhile, as Sir Keir marks one year in Downing Street this weekend, the poll found the Prime Minister’s personal approval rating had slumped to an all-time low of -43.
The More In Common survey found, if a general election was held today, Reform would become the largest party in the House of Commons with 290 seats.
As Sir Keir Starmer marks one year in Downing Street this weekend, the poll found the Prime Minister’s personal approval rating had slumped to an all-time low of -43
More In Common’s projection showed a majority of Cabinet ministers would lose their seats in the face of a Reform surge.
This includes Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting.
Labour’s main losses were found to be to Reform, with 223 seats directly flipping from Sir Keir’s party to Mr Farage’s outfit.
This includes many long-standing Labour constituencies in the North of England and in Wales.
Reform was also shown to be growing support in Conservative areas, with the MRP projecting they would win 59 seats that the Tories held in 2024.
The main reason that voters gave for turning away from Labour – regardless of who they would vote for instead – is broken promises and U-turns on previous pledges.
More than a third (36 per cent) selected this as a reason, while also high on the list was failing to deliver on the cost of living (31 per cent), and Labour’s changes to the wiinter fuel payments (27 per cent).
More In Common’s new MRP model, based on polling of more than 10,000 Britons, put Labour on 126 seats – a loss of 285 seats from last year’s general election
Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, said: ‘It is an unhappy birthday for the Prime Minister.
‘His personal approval has hit an all-time low, while Britons blame him rather than his Chancellor for the welfare mess and think he has lost control of his party.
‘Meanwhile our new MRP shows Reform UK as the big winners from the Government’s failures.
‘Although we are a long way from an election and much will change between, Nigel Farage’s party are demonstrating that they are now close to the level where they could command an outright majority.
‘Britain’s political landscape has transformed entirely from just a year ago.’
