As the UK braces for the first heatwave of 2025, scientists warn that climate change is responsible.
This weekend’s 32°C (90°F) forecast was made 100 times more likely by global warming, according to the research group World Weather Attribution.
Before humans began to alter the climate with fossil fuels, the UK would only see these temperatures in June once every 2,500 years.
Today, Britons should expect to be hit by similar life-threatening extremes once every 25 years.
Due to human activity, the planet’s climate is now 1.3°C (2.34°F) warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution.
This has made heatwaves like the one the UK is currently facing both more severe and more frequent.
Historically, a June heatwave with three or more days above 28°C (82.4°F) would only happen about once every 50 years in the UK.
Now, every June has a 20 per cent chance of experiencing a heatwave – 10 times more likely than in the pre-industrial period.
Scientists say that climate change is to blame for the UK’s heatwave, as a report finds that June temperatures of 32°C (90°F) have been made 100 times more likely by human activity
Scientists found that three-day heatwaves in southeast England are now 3°C (5.4°F) hotter due to human-caused climate change heating the planet
Temperatures across parts of the country hit 32°C yesterday, with similar highs expected through the weekend, peaking at 33°C on Saturday
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued an amber heat alert, warning of a ‘rise in deaths’
This week, the UK has experienced prolonged and intense heat building to a peak over the weekend.
The current forecast predicts maximum temperatures to reach 32°C (90°F) in some locations, with heatwave thresholds likely to be exceeded across the country.
The hottest area, Humberside, is predicted to reach 33°C (91.4°F) on Saturday, while London exceeds 30°C (86°F) until Monday.
On Thursday, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) issued an amber heat alert for the whole of the UK, warning that there could be a ‘rise in deaths’.
In a new report, World Weather Attribution finds that these temperatures were made hotter and more likely by human-caused climate change.
Dr Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-lead of World Weather Attribution, says: ‘We know exactly what has intensified this heatwave – burning oil, gas and coal, which has loaded the atmosphere with planet-heating greenhouse gases.’
Overall, June heatwaves are now about 2-4°C (3.6-7.2°F) more intense due to climate change.
In the report, the researchers warn that this is enough of a difference to turn June’s forecast from ‘warm sunny weather into dangerous heat’.
June heatwaves are now bout 2-4°C (3.6-7.2°F) more intense due to climate change, depending on the location in the country (illustrated). This is enough to turn warm weather into a deadly extreme heat event
Although many will be looking forward to enjoying the weather, temperatures exceeding 28°C (82.4°F) can be dangerous, especially for elderly people. Pictured: A woman sunbathes at St James’s Park in London today as temperatures begin to rise
While many people might be looking forward to enjoying the hot weather over the weekend, heatwaves are the deadliest extreme event in the world and kill hundreds of thousands each year.
Professor Mike Tipton, a human physiologist from the University of Portsmouth who was not involved with the study, says: ‘The human body is not designed to tolerate prolonged exposure to this sort of extreme heat.
‘We know that when temperatures rise above 30 degrees there is a spike in excess deaths, particularly in vulnerable groups, and unfortunately we are likely to see that again in the coming days and weeks as the mercury once again rises to these dangerous levels.’
Heatwaves are especially dangerous in June when people have not yet had a chance to acclimate to the heat.
This is especially problematic for the elderly and infirm who might not be able to get outside to cool off or monitor their own temperature.
During 2022, the UK experienced its most deadly heatwave on record when a record temperature of 40.3°C (104.5°F) was recorded at Coningsby, Lincolnshire.
More than 1,000 excess deaths among older people were recorded around the four-day peak of the heatwave, with more than 3,000 heat-related deaths in England over summer 2022.
Professor Tipton says: ‘With the evidence that 32-degree days in June are now 100 times more likely, it is undeniable that climate change is now costing British lives.’
Prior to humans affecting the climate with greenhouse gasses, June would only see a day reaching 32°C (90°F) once every 2,500 years. Now, it occurs once every 25. Pictured: People enjoying the sun in Potters Fields, London
This comes after a study conducted by the Met Office predicted that summers rivalling the famous 1976 heatwave could become the norm as the climate continues to warm.
During that summer, the UK spent a sweltering fortnight above the heatwave threshold of 28°C (82°F).
Looking ahead, the Met Office warns that the UK might spend two-thirds of the summer at those temperatures, with continuous heatwaves lasting up to a month.
The study warned there is now a 50/50 chance of the UK hitting 40°C again in the next 12 years, with a maximum of 46.6°C (115.9°F) now ‘plausible’ in today’s climate.
World Weather Attribution also warns that climate change is increasing the risk of wildfires in the UK.
Theodore Keeping, wildfire researcher at Imperial College, says: ‘Hotter temperatures mean an exponential increase in the evaporation of moisture from vegetation.
‘This leads to much drier conditions, and results in a higher chance of wildfires starting and spreading as leaf litter and grasses become tinder dry.’
The UK is already in the midst of a record year for wildfires, smashing the all-time record in the first four months of the year.
World Weather Attribution warns that these changes will lead to an increased risk of wildfires spreading throughout the summer. Pictured: A wildfire burns on the Isle of Arran, Scotland
Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, says: ‘We’re in the midst of a record-breaking year for wildfires, with exceptionally severe fire risk forecast for this weekend, bringing home the reality of continuing to pump carbon emissions into the atmosphere.’
Ahead of this weekend’s heatwave, emergency services around the country have issued warnings about the increased risk of fires.
According to the Met Office, the fire severity risk is currently ‘very high’ in many places and ‘high’ in others.
Mr Keeping adds: ‘People going outside to enjoy the warm weather should not be using fire or disposable barbecues, dispose of cigarette butts carefully and should immediately notify emergency services if they do notice a fire.
