Keir Starmer is facing a benefits showdown with his own MPs within weeks as they vow to block reforms despite spiralling costs.
A crunch vote on the government’s new welfare legislation – seen as a test of strength for the PM – has been slated for July 1.
Sir Keir has insisted he will not bow to pressure to water down the curbs on sickness and disability benefits, despite massive pressure.
They are intended to save around £4billion on working age handouts by the end of this Parliament, although grim trends in claims mean costs are still expected to increase by £11billion.
Leader of the Commons Lucy Powell told MPs this morning that the second reading of the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill will be on July 1. That is the moment when politicians vote on the broad principles of the legislation, although many rebels might opt to keep their powder dry until later in the process.
Unveiling the Bill yesterday, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said it would bring ‘compassion’ and ‘dignity’.
Ms Kendall confirmed a marginal change, guaranteeing that those who no longer qualify for Pip will still receive the payments for 13 weeks, rather than just four weeks.
A crunch vote on the government’s new welfare legislation – seen as a test of strength for the PM – has been slated for July 1
Labour MPs have been vowing to oppose the benefits reforms in the Commons
However, impact assessment accompanying the legislation suggests the numbers claiming Pip or Disability Living Allowance will increase 750,000 by the end of the Parliament even after the reforms – with the eye-watering spike in costs only being slowed.
Around 300,000 extra will be claiming UC by 2029-30 than in 2026-27, albeit many at lower rates.
The papers also indicate the timeline for replacing the Work Capability Assessment might be slipping.
Ms Kendall said in March that the checks, which determine the extent a disability affects ability to work, would be scrapped in 2028 with a replacement yet to be decided.
But the document says numbers going through WCA should be 40,000 lower by 2029-30, as a ‘first step in removing the WCA completely’. Aides insisted the date had not changed.
It cautions that spending on sickness and disability benefits for working-age adults would jump by £18billion a year to £70billion by the next election, if nothing is done to trim the bill.
The report adds: ‘The increase alone is more than the entire police budget.’ The 2025-26 police budget is £17.4billion.’
There are fears dozens of backbenchers are ready to rebel, with even some ministers said to be on resignation watch
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall previously warned there are 1,000 new Pip awards every day – ‘the equivalent of adding a city the size of Leicester every single year’
Ms Kendall said: ‘Our social security system is at a crossroads. Unless we reform it, more people will be denied opportunities, and it may not be there for those who need it.
‘This legislation represents a new social contract and marks the moment we take the road of compassion, opportunity and dignity.
‘This will give people peace of mind, while also fixing our broken social security system so it supports those who can work to do so while protecting those who cannot – putting welfare spending on a more sustainable path to unlock growth as part of our Plan for Change.’
