JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has issued yet another ominous warning for the US economy.
Dimon, considered one of America’s most influential Wall Street figures, has been sounding the alarm for months on the chances of a recession and a possible return of stagflation.
Now the bank leader has warned that recent upbeat economic news could be hiding a much more sinister state of affairs.
‘You’re going to see real numbers, and I think there’s a chance real numbers will deteriorate soon,’ Dimon told the the Morgan Stanley US Financial Conference in New York on Wednesday.
Dimon believes the full effects of Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have yet to be felt in the larger economy.
He warned that a recent jobs report that showed hiring had slowed less than expected and an inflation report that showed inflation cooling does not mean the economy is not headed for a downturn.
‘You haven’t seen an effect yet other than in the sentiment,’ Dimon said.
‘And maybe in July, August, September, October, you’ll start to see, did it have an effect? My guess is it did, hopefully not dramatic.’
Jamie Dimon has warned that the threat of stagflation could still strike the US economy
Consumer sentiment and the stock market have rebounded since the initial shock of Trump’s April 2 ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.
However, Dimon warned not to put too much stock in such measures, as neither ‘consumer sentiment nor businesses’ determine the key ‘inflection points’ of an economic downturn.
What really matters is hard economic data such as job and inflation reports, he said.
‘Employment will come down a little bit. Inflation will go up a little bit.
‘Hopefully, it’s just a little bit,’ he added.
The latest inflation report revealed that prices rose less than expected last month.
Prices rose 2.4 percent in May compared to the same time last year.
Although it is a slight increase on the month before, when prices rose 2.3 percent year-on-year, the increase of 0.1 percent suggests inflation is actually slowing as it is a smaller jump than previous months.
Dimon previously described President Trump’s tariff strategy as ‘pretty extreme’
Consumer sentiment and the stock market have rebounded since the initial shock of Trump’s April 2 ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, but Dimon warns the effects could still be felt
An economic downturn could see even more stores close across the US
Dimon added that although tariffs will disrupt the economy, they won’t make the ‘ship go down.’
Dimon has previously warned that the US economy could head in to a period of stagflation, where prices rise but economic growth slows leading to higher unemployment.
‘There’s a chance that (we’ll) have stagflation (in the US),’ Dimon said last month.
‘We have to be prepared for something like that,’ he warned.
The comments were later supported by research by JPMorgan that argued stagflation could hit the economy as early as this summer.
Under Dimon’s leadership JPMorgan has grown to be the world’s biggest and most powerful bank with $4 trillion.
Its prominent retail and investment arms makes it one of the most closely watched institutions on Wall Street.
Dimon himself has amassed a personal net worth of around $2.5 billion.
But he is not alone in issuing ominous forecasts about the US economy.
The World Bank cut its forecast for US growth in 2025 from its January prediction of 2.3 percent down to 1.4 percent.
Economists said ‘a substantial rise in trade barriers’ — referring to Trump’s aggressive trade policies — were to blame for the downgrade.
The new predictions suggest the US will grow half as fast as it did last year when it hit 2.8 percent.
