I remember the last time I flew into Tel Aviv. My hotel insisted I provide a mobile number on which they could transmit an air raid warning and wanted my blood group. Then they showed me the way to their shelter in the basement, and urged me to always have on hand a grab bag of documents, toiletries and medications. The sandbags and loan helmets for guests were already there, with bottled water and snacks. Media colleagues lent me a flak jacket, emblazoned with the word, “Press”. I had arrived in a country at war. Having experienced something similar in Ukraine, I felt curiously at home when I read on Friday 13 June, of missile attacks on Tehran and Jerusalem.
To begin with, it seemed like one of those tit-for-tat rocket exchanges we have seen before. When I first analysed Israel’s early morning attacks on Iran of last Friday 13 June, I concluded it was another limited operation to remove some of Tehran’s threatening nuclear sites. I was wrong. It now transpires this was merely the tip of something much more comprehensive — nothing less than a long-planned attempt to decapitate the Iranian regime, force on it regime change, kill its senior commanders, destroy its air defences, as well as neutralise its nuclear ambitions.
Ever since the overthrow of the kingdom of Iran, once a close friend of Israel under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and its replacement in 1979 by a militant Shia Islamic republic, led first by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and now Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israel and Iran have been mortal enemies. A core belief of the Ayatollahs is that Israel has no right to exist and must be “wiped from the face of the earth”. Iran has loomed over Israel like a malevolent shadow for 46 years. Security analysts have long felt the day would come when these two states would square off for a fight to the death.
It appears that day is with us now. Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu chose his moment when all Iran’s allies, mostly terrorist detachments in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen, were at their weakest. Ever since the 7 October 2023 attacks, if at huge cost in global goodwill, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) incursions have ground down these regional militias, such as the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah, a process aided in December 2024 by the sudden collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s repressive regime in Syria. Iran, once Persia, has always seen itself as the pre-eminent authority going back to biblical days, but is now militarily alone with few friends, though diplomatically supported by Russia and China. Most of the other Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, are of less aggressive Sunni Islamic persuasion, and were fearful of Iran’s traditional dominance of the region. However, they will be equally nervous of Israel attempting to fill this new regional power vacuum.
The immediate trigger for Israel’s action seems to have been the statement on 12 June by the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years. Its 35-nation Board of Governors concluded that Iran was enriching far more uranium than needed for its civilian power plants. The only alternative reason could be the development of nuclear warheads for its stock of ballistic missiles. The IAEA knew of undeclared underground facilities, to which it was not allowed access, where this weaponisation of nuclear capability was probably taking place. In this respect, accusations that a Gulf state had weapons of mass destruction seem substantiated. Israel felt it had the moral authority to act.
Until 2018, Iran had agreed to abide by the conditions of an international Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015 between the international community, including Britain and the US, and Tehran. It provided oversight over every aspect of Iran’s nuclear programme and controlled the speed at which it was developed for peaceful use. President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA during his first term in 2018, since when it has unravelled. Afterwards, Iran recommenced its enrichment programme and showed no signs of wanting a new deal or treaty with President Biden or anyone else.
Operation Rising Lion appears to have been planned in great detail, possibly for years. The addresses of 9 senior nuclear scientists, and a conference of 6 top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) generals were targeted by Israeli air-launched missiles and all were killed. Iranian air defence systems, tracked and wheeled anti-aircraft guns, missiles and radars, were attacked and destroyed, indicating a very high degree of surveillance by Israeli special forces. Israeli aircraft, including F-35 and KC-46 refuelling tankers, for the first time were able to rehearse over and transit through Syria airspace, thanks to the implosion of the Assad regime. We know short-range drones were assembled and launched from secret Mossad bases inside Iran, suggesting much top secret preparation beforehand. (I am struck by the similarities with Kyiv’s recent audacious drone assaults on Russian airbases.) Iran’s defences are reportedly so effectively neutralised that Israel now claims its pilots can fly over Tehran with little interference, a massive humiliation for the Ayatollah and his personal army, the IRGC. They claim in return to have shot down two Israeli aircraft with no word as to the fate of the aircrew.
The international community is urging de-escalation, but neither Iran or Israel want a deal
Of the other bases attacked, the nuclear facility in the mountains around Natanz causes the most worry. The Israelis have severely damaged much of the surface infrastructure, but I anticipate Netanyahu may task a special forces raid to land and enter its subterranean tunnels, sited so deep as to be beyond the range of all-known western munitions, to destroy nuclear-associated equipment beyond repair. The Israeli prime minister is very conscious of the risks of such an endeavour, as his brother Yonatan was killed leading a Commando raid to release hostages at Entebbe in 1976.
The international community is urging de-escalation, but neither Iran or Israel want a deal. Both are bent on vengeance. For Netanyahu, Rising Lion represents a once in a generation opportunity to force regime change on its deadly neighbour, and he will likely pursue “escalation dominance” for as long as he can. As El Al air flights to many places have been suspended until at least 23 June, we can take it that this mission has at least another week to run, and probably many more.
President Trump, with his mind on his 79th birthday and the grandeur of a US Army parade with tanks through Washington DC, distractedly claimed the Israeli attack was nothing to do with him, and that no US forces were involved. Once the scale of initial success became apparent, he changed tack and applauded Operation Rising Lion and reiterated his support for Israel. His mixed messaging has perplexed many, for he is trying to dominate a narrative which is not his to control. He cannot have his cake and eat it. However, he has just discovered, contrary to his election promises, that peace in the Middle East will prove for him as elusive as between Russia and Ukraine. And with that, his hopes for a Nobel Peace Prize disintegrate.
Israel is unlikely to have attacked without the benefit of strategic satellite surveillance from the US, though tactical intelligence will have come from Mossad. President Trump, who visited the Middle East during 13 to 16 May, will have been embarrassed by Netanyahu’s attack, but was certainly warned of it beforehand. The US talks with Iran scheduled for 15 June in neutral Oman, now cancelled, may or may not have been an elaborate camouflage to lull Tehran into a false sense of security, for they were evidently caught off-guard. Understanding he could not stop the Israelis from striking now, Trump probably — maybe reluctantly — sanctioned the mission. He has a large core of isolationist Republicans who elected him last year on the promise of no more foreign interventions and “bringing the boys home”. Renewed commitment of American assets to support Israel is bound to enrage them, leaving the president between a rock and a hard place.
The UK was likely warned a few hours before of Israel’s intentions, as an Indo-Pacific-bound carrier strike group led by HMS Prince of Wales, passed through the Suez Canal only 5 days ago and remains on the edge of the region, in the Indian Ocean. It includes the destroyer Dauntless, frigate Richmond, Canadian frigate Ville de Québec, Norwegian warships Maud and Roald Amundsen, and Royal Fleet Auxiliary tanker Tidespring. An escorting submarine will also be lurking nearby, while its air component includes 24 F-35B fifth-generation strike fighters, along with attack and anti-submarine helicopters, and drones. I suspect it has already been rerolled to provide a core function of UK defence, which is the protection of trade, shipping and personnel.
The uninterrupted flow of a third of the world’s liquefied natural gas and almost 25 per cent of global oil consumption through the Strait of Hormuz, dominated for 90 nautical miles on its northern side by Iran, and 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, will be a maritime headache for Britain and the United States. Sensibly, RAF assets, such as jets and air-to-air refuelling tankers, have been rushed to accessible airbases in Oman, Jordan and Akrotiri, near the Sovereign Base Area on Cyprus.
Prime Minister Starmer will wisely wish to keep the UK out of the direct line of fire in this conflict, which is the first major international test for his government. The hand on the UK tiller for now seems firm and reliable. The ball is in Tehran’s court, but we can be certain we are on the verge of a regional tsunami. In the meantime, Israel will have to endure the pinpricks of ballistic missile attacks on its Iron Dome and David’s Sling anti-rocket defences over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. When swarmed by Iranian munitions, some will get through, but the casualties remain low.
We do not know how weak Iran has become militarily, but Israel appears determined to ensure nothing less than the permanent emasculation of its Shia adversary and to light the fuse of regime change in Tehran. Mr Netanyahu may achieve the former but the IRGC may ensure the second remains just beyond his grasp.
